Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

dude, you have been on TMC since July, 2012 and are kvetching about a dearth of V3 superchargers?

___WAY___ back on February, 16th, 2013, 8 Tesla's, S60's and S85's when there were few and far between superchargers, recreated the John Broder trip from Washington DC to New York City, leaving from the old Rockville, Maryland Tesla Service center off Gude Drive.

But the network was, and still is, growing

This was when an S60 had too small a battery to make the jump from the Delaware, Interstate 95 rest stop located superchargers to the next ones in New York City, so only 4 of the 8 were capable of making the whole trip.

As I recall, this was just before you could do a trip across the US. 11 short years ago Feb 16, 2013. LOTS more superchargers nowadays.
(my 2005 hybrid blue Prius is hiding in the background)

<photo>

The young couple on the right side went along for fun.

Not kvetching at all.

I only mentioned V3 because V2s aren't NACS which, in particular, rules out the Medway and Baileyville Superchargers for anybody except Tesla owners. Jackman already has a pair of CCS, Medway and Baileyville should get pairs of CCS this year.

 

[kpanda17]

Makes more sense to keep using pure ICEv until there is pure Bev support.
Using gas to charge a tiny battery in a dual propulsion vehicle makes no sense.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Makes more sense to keep using pure ICEv until there is pure Bev support.
Using gas to charge a tiny battery in a dual propulsion vehicle makes no sense.

The battery acts as a buffer, allowing the engine to be run in a more efficient cycle, improving efficiency.
It allows the engine to be turned off in low speed driving, operating on an efficient electric motor, and reducing pollution.
It can be charged using regenerative braking, recovering otherwise wasted energy and avoiding use of brake pads and reducing brake dust.

As you increase the battery size and add grid charging, you have access to more efficient energy sources, can make more trips and drive more miles without running the engine at all (while still have access to existing gasoline refueling infrastructure and fast refueling). Higher battery capacity also not only gives higher AER, it increases available power, making for less restricted driving.

 

[dakhlkt22]

One of the problems with hybrids and PHEVs as they are currently made is that they don't help drive demand for EV infrastructure and prepare us for an EV future.

The proportions on PHEVs are all wrong. A tiny HV battery and a huge gas tank makes it too easy to not charge. Instead, the PHEV battery should maybe have 80% of the range of a comparable BEV and be priced higher than a BEV. Then they should use software to limit the use of gas to certain situations like very cold weather, when a truck owner is towing something heavy, when the routing software determines there aren't enough charging options, or after exercising an emergency option to rely on gas a certain number of times per year (and let them buy more of these emergency options too!). That would train PHEV owners to rely mostly on electric charging while giving them the feeling of gas as their backup, but they would mostly be charging which would help prepare the country for the charging demand of BEVs.

PHEVs as currently designed primarily seem intended to be cheaper than BEVs. Seems to me any PHEV that benefits from EV tax credits should be priced same or higher than the BEV version. I have no problem with giving owners a gas backup if it is priced as a premium trim that is higher than a BEV version. Since it's too late to rewrite the IRA, maybe the states should require PHEVs to meet stricter criteria.

 

[winfield100]

at present, 2024 and going forward, not many PHEV in US qualify for IRA credit

Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After

Save up to $7,500 on qualifying vehicles!

fueleconomy.gov

 

[dakhlkt22]

at present, 2024 and going forward, not many PHEV in US qualify for IRA credit

Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After

Save up to $7,500 on qualifying vehicles!

fueleconomy.gov

View attachment 1013609

The PHEVs on that list are all Ford and Stellantis. It could be related more to OEM manufacturing choices made before the IRA was passed. I don't think anything baked into the IRA prevents more PHEVs from qualifying. Hopefully the OEMs have the good sense to use the IRA mostly on BEVs or on PHEVs that are more BEV-like and not in the current dominant PHEV configuration.

 

[kpanda17]

People are coin operated, change IRA to take away all incentives for PHEVs
until rural EV charging improves, those people should keep using aging ICEvs
iRA should drive faster building of charging locations, esp rural
coins should attract pure BEV purchases

most cost effective, keep using old ICEvs until BEVs with rural charging works for you

 

[cwerdna]

GM’s ’23 Earnings Shake Off Strike, EV Slowdown

General Motors beat Wall Street 2023 earnings forecast despite EV and autonomous driving setbacks and a tough year in China, with the automaker predicting a good year for the industry.

www.wardsauto.com

““It’s true the pace of EV growth has slowed, which has created some uncertainty,” Chairman and CEO Mary Barra says, though she expects GM to become “variable profit positive in the second half of the year” based on GM’s current expectations for EV demand and production growth.

GM rolled back its goal of building 400,000 EVs through mid-2024, and now says it will sell at least 250,000 EVs in 2024, depending on customer demand…”

Ford wants dealers to rent out Mustang Mach-Es

Ford dealers can now rent older Mustang Mach-E inventory under two rental programs, but the move raises questions about demand and sales momentum.

www.autoblog.com

 

[cwerdna]

Study: More buyers considering Toyota over any other brand — even EV buyers

GBK Collective's recent research found that around half of potential car buyers are looking at EVs, but cost and other issues remain big questions for shoppers.

www.autoblog.com

 

[cwerdna]

Nothing earth shattering in

which is just <5 minutes long. Some of the points are exactly the ones I've pointed out before.

 

[bruce4000]

Nothing earth shattering in

which is just <5 minutes long. Some of the points are exactly the ones I've pointed out before.

I generally like PBS reporting but they mention GM slowing but 0 mention of the largest EV maker Tesla and alluded to better charging infrastructure needed but no mention of Tesla SC opening up to other makers and NACS.

 

[David_Cary]

Agreed - that was a pretty bad piece. Edmund's isn't exactly knowledgeable in this space. The person doing all the talking was from Edmund's - the interviewer was just running through prepared questions.

Her first answer for Hertz's decision to sell a lot of their Tesla's - battery replacement/repair costs. Huh? Even fleets get warranties and there are very few early battery failures that I have heard of in the last few years - even if Hertz purchased without warranty.

Now - insurance costs, body repair costs, renters running out of range or having charging concerns (duh - they are people renting cars). That makes sense but not battery replacement costs.

GM and Ford provide the answers for Edmund's. Part of their answer is that their dealers do not want to sell EVs - and we all know why. They can't exactly going around saying that so they complain of demand.

Certainly interest rates are a big issue. The limited selection of larger vehicles at good price points is a significant issue. Musk is also an issue as is Tesla's customer service and body repair costs.

All this talk of rural infrastructure is not that important from my point of view. I can go wherever I want. If I go out to the deep wilderness, it isn't in winter somewhere where there is no power - only a few survivalists would try that. If I lived in a rural area, I would have electricity at my house - again 99.99% of people have power. Yes- there are a few places you can find without a fast charger within 100 miles - but I am not going there in a situation where I don't have power at where I am sleeping. The percentage of people that camp over 100 miles from a charger can't be that high.

Listen - we aren't banging on 100% market share. The first 50% is easy. Just like the first 50% of electricity going renewable is easy. All this is a walk in the park compared to the second 50%. Rural edge cases don't matter for the first 50%. Interest rates and price point matter.

Charging for people in multi-unit housing is way more of an issue than rural fast chargers. This is pretty hard to mandate but should be on newer construction. If I was renting an apartment, getting an EV is still a barrier since I might move in a year. It really does take a lot to get there for transient renters. Paying the crazy rates to fast charge exclusively is a really bad idea and completely inconvenient. But most renters aren't buying new cars so it isn't as big of a problem for now.

 

[kpanda17]

VA Blacksburg, a college town with a tremendous number of renters, recently mandated on property L2 charging for new development projects

For my daughters next apartment, we will focus on only renting from new places with L2 charging

The pressure is mounting

Obvious for new developments
But feel pressure will be on existing apartments to retrofit L2 charging on their property or they will loose renters to the other places

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

VA Blacksburg, a college town with a tremendous number of renters, recently mandated on property L2 charging for new development projects

For my daughters next apartment, we will focus on only renting from new places with L2 charging

The pressure is mounting

Obvious for new developments
But feel pressure will be on existing apartments to retrofit L2 charging on their property or they will loose renters to the other places

For that market pressure to happen, you first need market volume. That volume is currently very segmented, so while a luxury condo developer in California is going to think about charging pre-design, a slum landlord in Mississippi isn't.

To get the volume, we need price reductions.

 

[tps5352]

Until I happened to watch this PBS TV show discussion/debate, I had never really thought about the question (of when EV sales will reach 50%). Interestingly, both guests on the show I mention--otherwise on opposite sides concerning certain key electric car economic issues--seemed to agree that it will take quite some time (one guess was 40 years) for EVs to predominate on the road.

That is not the same question as the OP is asking, but in environmental terms it may be as or more important than just asking when yearly sales will top 50%. Even if lots of EVs are being sold, if a large number of ICE cars also remain in use, impacts to health and environment will remain. That is why the one on-air participant stated that a very important goal should be getting ICE car off the road as opposed to simply selling more EVs. Increasing EV sales while still allowing large numbers of ICE vehicles to operate are not necessarily mutually exclusive actions. It's an important distinction, imo.

 

[winfield100]

Until I happened to watch this PBS TV show discussion/debate, I had never really thought about the question (of when EV sales will reach 50%).. Increasing EV sales while still allowing large numbers of ICE vehicles to operate are not necessarily mutually exclusive actions. It's an important distinction, imo.

Please remind me,
WHAT FUEL WILL ICE USE? and where will they get it ?

why is the supercharger network so critically important
It just works

EV's use _manufactured_ fuel. electricity

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Please remind me,
WHAT FUEL WILL ICE USE? and where will they get it ?

why is the supercharger network so critically important
It just works

EV's use _manufactured_ fuel. electricity

ICEVs will use gasoline or diesel, which are significant fractions of petroleum. Since we have a bunch of uses of petroleum other than fuel, even if we electrify the majority of ground transportation there would be plenty of fuel, and, what's more, it might be _cheaper_, because the refining should be less energy intensive, and the refineries would be selling it as a by-product, not a primary product.

_If_ it became more expensive, it would only be because of less competition among gas stations.

Fewer gas stations wouldn't be an enormous burden for most people since they'd still be on highways that people travel. People might just want bigger gas tanks, or fill up a bit more.

 

[FastEddieB]

That is why the one on-air participant stated that a very important goal should be getting ICE car off the road as opposed to simply selling more EVs. Increasing EV sales while still allowing large numbers of ICE vehicles to operate are not necessarily mutually exclusive actions. It's an important distinction, imo.

That would likely take something similar to the “Cash for Clunkers” program from 2009:

Cash for Clunkers Definition, How the Rebate Program Worked

From that link…

 

[winfield100]

ICEVs will use gasoline or diesel, which are significant fractions of petroleum. Since we have a bunch of uses of petroleum other than fuel, even if we electrify the majority of ground transportation there would be plenty of fuel, and, what's more, it might be _cheaper_, because the refining should be less energy intensive, and the refineries would be selling it as a by-product, not a primary product.

_If_ it became more expensive, it would only be because of less competition among gas stations.

Fewer gas stations wouldn't be an enormous burden for most people since they'd still be on highways that people travel. People might just want bigger gas tanks, or fill up a bit more.

@ItsNotAboutTheMoney
may I remind you of a bit of history

Spindletop a "gusher" stick a hole in the ground and it spews oil, around 150 years ago

now and recently
Deep Water Horizon (a nice "gusher")
the BILLION $ oil rig destroyed near the artic in winter storms a few years back
fracking that grossly pollutes areas

The easy petroleum has been found and gotten years and decades ago and will be too dear to just burn as vehicle fuel when the cost goes up 10x again

I used to buy gasoline in the upper 20 cent range to the middle 30 cent a gallon range now it's 10x the price, and will go up another 10x

ICE and ICEv will become expensive lawn ornaments, regulated and legislated if necessary, as social "faux pas" at best

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

@ItsNotAboutTheMoney
may I remind you of a bit of history

Spindletop a "gusher" stick a hole in the ground and it spews oil, around 150 years ago

now and recently
Deep Water Horizon (a nice "gusher")
the BILLION $ oil rig destroyed near the artic in winter storms a few years back
fracking that grossly pollutes areas

The easy petroleum has been found and gotten years and decades ago and will be too dear to just burn as vehicle fuel when the cost goes up 10x again

I used to buy gasoline in the upper 20 cent range to the middle 30 cent a gallon range now it's 10x the price, and will go up another 10x

ICE and ICEv will become expensive lawn ornaments, regulated and legislated if necessary, as social "faux pas" at best

We're already paying fracked oil prices and current technologies, including fracking have made supply plentiful that nobody's thinking about peak oil supply any more.

As long as we need petroleum for non-transportation use, we'll have gasoline and diesel available. Gasoline was very cheap before the automobile because there wasn't much use for it.
It's easily stored, so lowered demand just means less frequent delivery to gas stations.
The refueling is extremely fast so each pump can serve up a lot of fuel. Even at a crappy 5 gal/minute with a crappy 20mpg vehicle that's 6,000 miles per hour. 10gal/min at 40mpg is 24,000 miles per hour. You don't need that much infrastructure to serve everybody. There's overcapacity in many places because the convenience stores are the money makers. So, even if some gas stations close you're not suddenly going to have long lines.
It's energy dense, so it's relatively easy to deal with fewer gas stations as well: you can up the gas tank size, you stop at the gas station a bit more, or if you really hate it, you can fill up some gas cans.

The rapid death of gasoline vehicles due to gasoline not being available or being extremely expensive is just wishful thinking.