Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[EbS-P]

Tesla should build a bigger Y and replace the current X. Easier to build, less complex and could be offered more cheaply.

I don’t think that’s reasonable. Parts that is shares with M3 will be reduced. I think the more likely avenue is the Tesla van for a bigger interior volume vehicle.

 

[WilsonWilbur85]

As much as I’d like to personally see the base price come down to $78,000, I have my doubts because:

-demand would likely far outpace production capacity creating a long back log, which Tesla has recently eliminated on all models for better customer service/ order management/etc.

-even if the S/X battery sourcing meets the ftc requirements this year (no one seems to know that for sure), that’s even less likely in 2024 with increasing % requirements.

The biggest reason- I bought my 2022 refresh MX with fsd for $116k all included last year (it was the lowest price ever offered since the refresh launched in 2021). I’ve since traded in, but if I buy an identical new discounted inventory MX with fsd and with all the referral discounts, it’s basically $116k all included. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

In other words, the inventory MXs with ~$8k discounts I see in the SF Bay Area are already at all time low prices, assuming the buyer uses a referral code (which has to be virtually all buyers at this point).

Why would you trade your 2022 in for a 2023?

 

[WilsonWilbur85]

The X has historically had more sales than the S as it is more versatile.


There is no value in having a "premium offering" if it does not sell. Profit is simply margin x volume. They have the Roadster for Halo effect.

Let's see the effect of CT prices on the demand for S/X as these relative levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680940984874434562

You kind of contradict yourself.
X sells more than X… so why lower price. It does sell.

Roadster doesn’t exist at this time.

 

[bayareaever]

Why would you trade your 2022 in for a 2023?

I traded X for Y. I would have kept the X but it was mostly a financial decision to get the Y with a much lower payment. The Y is great but the X is even ‘greater’. I just couldn’t justify the extra greatness considering the price difference between the two cars.

 

[Tiger]

You kind of contradict yourself.
X sells more than X… so why lower price. It does sell.

Roadster doesn’t exist at this time.

My point is, it doesn't sell (well) at the moment, and if they reduce the price 20% it will sell 100% more. If the margin is good, this should not matter. If the margin is not good, they should fix the production to improve the margin.

 

[WilsonWilbur85]

I traded X for Y. I would have kept the X but it was mostly a financial decision to get the Y with a much lower payment. The Y is great but the X is even ‘greater’. I just couldn’t justify the extra greatness considering the price difference between the two cars.

Oh sorry I misread that as X for X lol

 

[CapeOne]

From what Tesla has done to the Model S Plaids...they seem to not care at all about secondary market value destruction.

True. They don't seem to care and there are many customers and lease underwriters that can be hurt by this.

I've always heard that Tesla has very high margins on their vehicles, of course I can imagine the Model X margin is likely smaller than the Model 3 but they may have room to cut that much off of the MX MSRP and still remain profitable on that production line...it could very well be starting MSRP of $79,990 with no options/extras...who knows....

Tesla margins are high in part because they are not only the manufacturer but also the dealer. They get margins at both levels unlike most other automakers which only see profits (margins) as a manufacturer.

 

[MrKashima]

I predict Model X 5-seater will be priced at $78K in January 2024. My reasons:
1) Federal EV tax credit enables SUVs priced under $80K to get $7500 discount. And starting January 1st, this will be a point-of-sale discount, given upfront.
2) Model X Long Range was already priced at $80K from May to December of 2020.
3) Model X production is ramping up heavily now, and providing supply to the whole world from Fremont.
4) Interest rates are high now, and high loan rates push down the prices of expensive luxury vehicles like the X.
5) With price of $78K, you can choose among 4 exterior paint colors, or get white paint with 3 different interiors, and stay under $80K price.
6) Tesla has been discounting the X recently, at end of June there was lots of inventory on Tesla website in the $90K to $92K price range.

Tesla has now dropped their 2023 Model Y price lower than the 2020 Model Y price. They will now do the same for the X. Anything else is just leaving money on the table. Comments/corrections are welcome.

I’d buy in a microsecond if this happens. I think the X is about a $70k car.

 

[Tiger]

Tesla margins are high in part because they are not only the manufacturer but also the dealer. They get margins at both levels unlike most other automakers which only see profits (margins) as a manufacturer.

They get costs also from all levels such as expanding to new markets so it is not straight forward. Other car companies can outsource the risk of starting a new shop but Tesla balances the goodwill image of not having enough shops (or cost of having more) and the impact on demand (and margins).

 

[Sunshine Speed]

Just looked at new Model X inventory, and there are brand new Xs (not demo models) selling for $88,990. There are at least 600 new unsold Xs in inventory. I'm using the website ev-cpo dot com to look at new inventory. I'm still predicting a $78K base price in January, so that inventory will clear and customers will realize huge value, probably half of them will qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit. Raw materials costs are coming down, and I'm sure 2170 battery pack costs are reducing as well. Maybe Tesla will make some FSD profit, because software upgrades do NOT count toward the $80K MSRP limit.

 

[SpicyPaneer]

Just looked at new Model X inventory, and there are brand new Xs (not demo models) selling for $88,990. There are at least 600 new unsold Xs in inventory. I'm using the website ev-cpo dot com to look at new inventory. I'm still predicting a $78K base price in January, so that inventory will clear and customers will realize huge value, probably half of them will qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit. Raw materials costs are coming down, and I'm sure 2170 battery pack costs are reducing as well. Maybe Tesla will make some FSD profit, because software upgrades do NOT count toward the $80K MSRP limit.

Are the current X’s using 2170 battery’s now? The prices will become lower when they go universal batteries.

 

[Sunshine Speed]

Are the current X’s using 2170 battery’s now? The prices will become lower when they go universal batteries.

Good catch. 3 and Y use 2170 while S and X use 18650 cells. But I think lithium and battery pack prices are going lower now, since a few months ago. It's was discussed in the earnings call.

 

[bayareaever]

Just looked at new Model X inventory, and there are brand new Xs (not demo models) selling for $88,990. There are at least 600 new unsold Xs in inventory. I'm using the website ev-cpo dot com to look at new inventory. I'm still predicting a $78K base price in January, so that inventory will clear and customers will realize huge value, probably half of them will qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit. Raw materials costs are coming down, and I'm sure 2170 battery pack costs are reducing as well. Maybe Tesla will make some FSD profit, because software upgrades do NOT count toward the $80K MSRP limit.

I’ve been watching local 7 seat inventory daily and it’s been fairly stagnant. Hence, the prices just dropped today another few thousand $ to about a $10k discount on many. It’s tempting, along with the free fsd transfer presumably only this quarter. I think this quarter (and maybe next) are unique because CT anticipation is Osborning all the existing models (especially the X being an expensive suv). I think that’s why they chose this quarter to make the fsd transfer available. There may be insufficient demand to keep growing deliveries every quarter without any CT deliveries, especially when paired with today’s interest rates.

2024 battery sourcing requirements will be more strict and it’s not even clear that the S/X battery qualifies for ‘23. Waiting for ‘24 prices/incentives doesn’t sound like a safe bet to me once I factor in what fsd pricing might be then.

 

[SpicyPaneer]

I’ve been watching local 7 seat inventory daily and it’s been fairly stagnant. Hence, the prices just dropped today another few thousand $ to about a $10k discount on many. It’s tempting, along with the free fsd transfer presumably only this quarter. I think this quarter (and maybe next) are unique because CT anticipation is Osborning all the existing models (especially the X being an expensive suv). I think that’s why they chose this quarter to make the fsd transfer available. There may be insufficient demand to keep growing deliveries every quarter without any CT deliveries, especially when paired with today’s interest rates.

2024 battery sourcing requirements will be more strict and it’s not even clear that the S/X battery qualifies for ‘23. Waiting for ‘24 prices/incentives doesn’t sound like a safe bet to me once I factor in what fsd pricing might be then.

I wouldn’t mind paying for the Chinese battery packs that allow the short range variant of M3 MY where we can charge the battery pack to 100% vs the 60/40, 70/30, 80/20 rule.

 

[bayareaever]

I wouldn’t mind paying for the Chinese battery packs that allow the short range variant of M3 MY where we can charge the battery pack to 100% vs the 60/40, 70/30, 80/20 rule.

Different use cases I guess. I’ve had 4 Ev’s over the last 12 years with this charging ‘limitation’. It’s basically a non issue- I charge to 80% all the time unless I have a road trip planned, in which case I charge to 100%.

 

[dmurphy]

I suspect OP is correct. And it will have Free Super Charging.

$78k with FUSC? I'd sell my S right on the spot. His & Hers X's. Heck, I'd probably make mine a 5-seater just so I can be more utilitarian.

 

[Tiger]

I’ve been watching local 7 seat inventory daily and it’s been fairly stagnant. Hence, the prices just dropped today another few thousand $ to about a $10k discount on many. It’s tempting, along with the free fsd transfer presumably only this quarter. I think this quarter (and maybe next) are unique because CT anticipation is Osborning all the existing models (especially the X being an expensive suv). I think that’s why they chose this quarter to make the fsd transfer available. There may be insufficient demand to keep growing deliveries every quarter without any CT deliveries, especially when paired with today’s interest rates.

I feel like the smart move will be, in any case, to buy the demo/used ones from inventory, to "buy the dip". The batter will degrade 6% when you drive it out of the shop anyways /s

 

[X Fan]

I feel like the smart move will be, in any case, to buy the demo/used ones from inventory, to "buy the dip". The batter will degrade 6% when you drive it out of the shop anyways /s

Sarcasm I know but my 2 x’s barely lost range (only 5% by year 5+) whereby our Y’s lost 5% within 3 months. Different cell chemistry I gather.

 

[dmurphy]

Sarcasm I know but my 2 x’s barely lost range (only 5% by year 5+) whereby our Y’s lost 5% within 3 months. Different cell chemistry I gather.

Same here. My X is showing about 5.5% after 3 years / 63k hard driven miles. Many road trips, trailer towing, beating the crud out of the battery. The harder you work it, the happier it gets!

 

[anthonyj]

The X is currently an amazing value when compared with any other car in its size and price point. A $78k Model X is silly. It would have to be redesigned from the ground up with many removed features