Would <$80k MX get US tax credit?

[bayareaever]

With prices trending down, it’s not inconceivable that MX could fall below $80k at some point. There is historical precedence with the previous LR model iirc. If it is possible to do this with even slim positive margins, it would obviously unlock tons of demand assuming the tax credit came into play. Does anyone know if the domestic battery requirements would be met for it to qualify?

The refresh MX is great but it’s still too pricey even after recent price drops imo, especially with the tax credit being unavailable.

 

[ptronus31]

It would have to be well under $80k to allow customers to select common options (non-white paint, more than 5 seats, etc.). I don't think they would do $79,990 for a white/black 5 seater.

 

[bayareaever]

It would have to be well under $80k to allow customers to select common options (non-white paint, more than 5 seats, etc.). I don't think they would do $79,990 for a white/black 5 seater.

Good point. If the MX can qualify for the credit, I predict the price will come down enough to qualify.

My prediction is based on past MX prices, current price trends, macro environment, and especially comments on the earnings call which weren’t exactly a rosy outlook for margins going forward this year. Essentially Elon said they will go to zero if they have to.

Assuming Cybertruck production is insignificant this year, demand for current models will have to somehow be stimulated.

 

[ucmndd]

I believe most/all 18650 cells are still made by Panasonic in Japan. Not sure what the implications are there for the credit.

At any rate I don’t think a $79,999 X is particularly likely.

 

[bayareaever]

I believe most/all 18650 cells are still made by Panasonic in Japan. Not sure what the implications are there for the credit.

At any rate I don’t think a $79,999 X is particularly likely.

I think anything is possible if current trends continue, especially with interest rates. The market for high price cars has rapidly shrunk and the price spread from 3/Y to S/X is still very significant. The S/X refreshes are amazing vehicles but improving them further will probably be more costly than just lowering the prices. MS prices dropped significantly (~5 years ago?) once early adopters had bought and the lines were up and running. I think the tax credit is a very obvious incentive for Tesla to reach for in this case.

Tesla is going to be relying on fsd sales for profit, which are exempt from the tax credit price cap. They made that clear during the earnings call.

Plus EV competition is actually real for the first time. From the earnings call, Ford put multiple competitors out of business 100 years ago by lowering prices and streamlining production. Elon and Tesla are clearly using the same strategy currently. To what degree, too soon to say.

 

[noobified]

Tesla doesn't need to make the Model X tax a sub-80k car. It wouldn't solve anything. That's what the Model Y is for. If you've made up your mind to buy a Tesla but can't afford an X, you're most likely buying a Y.

Why lower the price for the X when they can just sell you a Y at higher margins? Model Y customers are still potential FSD customers, which costs the same for all models. The long-term revenue potential is the same regardless of model.

The Model S/X can continue to be low volume premium flagship models that compete with other luxury EV cars. Tesla, however, needs to up its game as the other EV cars in the luxury segment have pretty much caught up and are much more luxurious. Cars like the EQS and Taycan are REALLY nice and are viable alternatives. This was definitely not the case several years ago.

Tesla can keep the S/X prices where they are. They just need to make them better.

 

[Tiger]

Tesla doesn't need to make the Model X tax a sub-80k car. It wouldn't solve anything. That's what the Model Y is for. If you've made up your mind to buy a Tesla but can't afford an X, you're most likely buying a Y.

Cars like the EQS and Taycan are REALLY nice and are viable alternatives. This was definitely not the case several years ago.

I'd rather wait for CT than overpay X, or maybe go with a chinese alternative. Model X is no longer the only show in town. If Tesla doesn't lower the prices, they'll just continue to gather dust in the inventory.

History has proven the price action.

 

[bayareaever]

Tesla doesn't need to make the Model X tax a sub-80k car. It wouldn't solve anything. That's what the Model Y is for. If you've made up your mind to buy a Tesla but can't afford an X, you're most likely buying a Y.

Why lower the price for the X when they can just sell you a Y at higher margins? Model Y customers are still potential FSD customers, which costs the same for all models. The long-term revenue potential is the same regardless of model.

The Model S/X can continue to be low volume premium flagship models that compete with other luxury EV cars. Tesla, however, needs to up its game as the other EV cars in the luxury segment have pretty much caught up and are much more luxurious. Cars like the EQS and Taycan are REALLY nice and are viable alternatives. This was definitely not the case several years ago.

Tesla can keep the S/X prices where they are. They just need to make them better.

Just a guess, but I assume X/S customers buy or subscribe to fsd more than 3/Y customers, because they have more disposable income. If Tesla has data to support that being the case, then they’d be more motivated to sell S and X.

 

[noobified]

Just a guess, but I assume X/S customers buy or subscribe to fsd more than 3/Y customers, because they have more disposable income. If Tesla has data to support that being the case, then they’d be more motivated to sell S and X.

That may be the case, but that would be based on the current Model S/X customer base that are buying S/X for 90k+. It might not be the case if those cars were in a lower pricing tier because the customer base would then consist of 3/Y customers stretching their budgets to buy S/X.

For example, let's say the X price went down from 97k to 80k, but the Y Performance was still 54k. A buyer with a budget of around 70k would have a choice of getting a Y with FSD for 69k or stepping up to an X without FSD for 80k. Tesla would much rather sell the Y with FSD for 69k because they would make a decent margin on the car and a ton of margin on the FSD vs just selling the X at a very low margin or even at a loss. Buyers that stretch their budgets are less likely to go for added features when they've already broken the bank.

Tesla doesn't want this scenario. They want to to give buyers in different budget tiers definitive options while ensuring high profit margins. I completely understand why buyers want cheap S/X cars, but it doesn't make sense from a business standpoint.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices for S/X drop further because demand is down big and inventory is high. If it happens, it'll only be a temporary fire sale that's worth taking advantage of.

 

[ELETRO]

i would like $79,999 MX plaid in red
add plaid and red and yoke fsd as add-on after purchased before delivery?

 

[NJturtlePower]

With prices trending down, it’s not inconceivable that MX could fall below $80k at some point. There is historical precedence with the previous LR model iirc. If it is possible to do this with even slim positive margins, it would obviously unlock tons of demand assuming the tax credit came into play. Does anyone know if the domestic battery requirements would be met for it to qualify?

The refresh MX is great but it’s still too pricey even after recent price drops imo, especially with the tax credit being unavailable.

So did you order one yet?

 

[bayareaever]

So did you order one yet?

View attachment 977568

Yep, ordered soon after big price drop and took delivery last week with fsd transfer. Amazing car at a ‘fair’ price. Referral awards dropped very soon after I ordered so technically the price increased. Seems like my timing was good. Of course prices could drop further in the future but I’d be surprised with interest rates leveling, etc.

 

[NJturtlePower]

Awesome! I jumped on that $1k Loyalty offer as well... Just waiting on a VIN now.

Even better I just had a random dude use my referral code so I got 10,000 points coming soon on his Model S order.

On Order: 2023 Model X "Plain" | LR 5-Seater | Ultra Red/Black | 20" Wheels | No FSD Trans. | EDD #4: Oct. 12th - Nov. 23rd (Ordered 9/4 in NJ) |

 

[domonas]

Yep, ordered soon after big price drop and took delivery last week with fsd transfer. Amazing car at a ‘fair’ price. Referral awards dropped very soon after I ordered so technically the price increased. Seems like my timing was good. Of course prices could drop further in the future but I’d be surprised with interest rates leveling, etc.

Hey if you took delivery, do you think you've had it long enough to determine build quality yet? Squeeks, significant panel gaps, paint issues, etc?

 

[NJturtlePower]

New video out explaining all the details of the 2024 Federal EV incentive...

 

[lrpr]

Hey if you took delivery, do you think you've had it long enough to determine build quality yet? Squeeks, significant panel gaps, paint issues, etc?

Purchased my MX 6 seater with FSD last Nov for 125k plus before taxes. The cabin was quite until 500 miles then rattling and squeaks started from Falcon doors, dashboard and trunk panels especially on turns and rough roads. I had 5 services so far for this issue. Every time they fix something and the issue comes back after a day or two. I took the car to two different service centers and their answer is, your car is better than others and its the nature of trims. Last month, they had the car for two weeks in service center and I was thinking that they would fix these issues but no luck. Do you think I'll buy another MX with such a crap build quality for this price? I had couple of loaner cars and test drove some of my friends cars (2022/2023 models) as well. I guess the rattling and squeaks are common among all the MX. Tesla trade-in value for the car is 65k with FSD transfer