Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[Tiger]

That's because all of the current new inventory 2023 models had their price history reset. You won't find a single one listed before January 17th which was the day after the price increase yet all of them were in inventory before that. Tesla relisted them in way that the code behind the first 7 digits of the vin code all changed which is the unique identifier tesla-info.com uses to track them. This wouldn't have happened if tesla provided the actual full vin for the scraped data.

For example, this one is listed 19-Dec-2023 and has a flat price history, so this doesn't seem to apply to all.

 

[sorka]

For example, this one is listed 19-Dec-2023 and has a flat price history, so this doesn't seem to apply to all.

That's a demo. I said NON demo new inventory.

The prices on all inventory S/X (except for gray) increased at 8 pm on 1/16/2024. You won't find any inventory 2023s listed before that. This was widely discussed in the "Model S Delivery Update" thread.

 

[sorka]

That's a demo. I said NON demo new inventory.

The prices on all inventory S/X (except for gray) increased at 8 pm on 1/16/2024. You won't find any inventory 2023s listed before that. This was widely discussed in the "Model S Delivery Update" thread.

...and non gray. The gray new inventory units didn't increase in price so their listing ids didn't change.

The easiest way to prove this to yourself is to search for S New, click all colors except silver(which is also used for gray), and then sort by listing date. The oldest listed unit is January 17th, 2024.

 

[Tiger]

...and non gray. The gray new inventory units didn't increase in price so their listing ids didn't change.

The easiest way to prove this to yourself is to search for S New, click all colors except silver(which is also used for gray), and then sort by listing date. The oldest listed unit is January 17th, 2024.

Now I see what you mean about the dates. Do you have your own snapshots from before the price hike?

 

[sorka]

Now I see what you mean about the dates. Do you have your own snapshots from before the price hike?

I didn't screen shot it myself, but the 3% discount on inventory was widely discussed in the aforementioned delivery thread for weeks before the price increase last week. Pretty sure exact prices were quoted from tesla-info.com since it was frequently referenced.

 

[sorka]

I think they did this price increase based on color because they couldn't flat out raise the base price of the model s without raising it on the model x which if they did, would eliminate the $7500 incentive for those who are income qualified. It's still perplexing though. Most of those who are going to buy an X make too much to qualify for the tax credit and those who do qualify shouldn't be spending $73K on a car (after the tax credit).

 

[threeputts]

Most of those who are going to buy an X make too much to qualify for the tax credit and those who do qualify shouldn't be spending $73K on a car (after the tax credit).

Tax credit eligibility is based on taxable income without regard to assets. Also the limit for married filing jointly is $300k - not unreasonable to be considering a new model X even if financing some of it.

 

[Acer1]

guys just got 24 VIN xxxxxxxxxRF4345xx
MXLR

 

[TespaceX]

I think they did this price increase based on color because they couldn't flat out raise the base price of the model s without raising it on the model x which if they did, would eliminate the $7500 incentive for those who are income qualified. It's still perplexing though. Most of those who are going to buy an X make too much to qualify for the tax credit and those who do qualify shouldn't be spending $73K on a car (after the tax credit).

Just curious what price level vehicle do you think a couple making $280K (that still qualifies for the tax credit) should be buying?

And, how much do you think a couple should be making to buy an $80K Model X?

 

[kap.var]

Remember 300k is not what you are making, 300k is MAGI, line item 11. Dont get confused.

 

[threeputts]

Remember 300k is not what you are making, 300k is MAGI, line item 11. Dont get confused.

Correct, you can make more than 300K (jointly) and still qualify with sufficient deductions.

 

[Super_Popular]

Still waiting for the prediction to happen.

 

[sorka]

Just curious what price level vehicle do you think a couple making $280K (that still qualifies for the tax credit) should be buying?

And, how much do you think a couple should be making to buy an $80K Model X?

I think it's now $300K up from $225K which is a pretty big jump.

It's not a one size fits all. You could be be rich with an AGI of less than $300K per year. For instance, if you're retired and most of your income is coming from Roth's, or long term cap gains outside of a tax exempt retirement account, then your AGI is likely going to be less than $300K. Heck, you could just be super rich and not have any investments and no income and you'd qualify and it would make financial sense.

My point is I think most who qualify for the rebate are not in these situations. It wasn't a statement meant to judge.

 

[Tiger]

Just curious what price level vehicle do you think a couple making $280K (that still qualifies for the tax credit) should be buying?

And, how much do you think a couple should be making to buy an $80K Model X?

What matters more is what are their expenses vs income, i.e., residual/net income after compulsory expenditures.

 

[Jayskywalker21]

What matters more is what are their expenses vs income, i.e., residual/net income after compulsory expenditures.

Agreed and to add to that IMO IF you must finance that the monthly payment for ones persons income shouldn't be more than 5-10% of their monthly income. Better to not finance at all especially with these rates, however not many people follow this rule and damn near any rules they just end up buying too much car. Repos are at an all time high

 

[prindiaos]

I think it's now $300K up from $225K which is a pretty big jump.

It's not a one size fits all. You could be be rich with an AGI of less than $300K per year. For instance, if you're retired and most of your income is coming from Roth's, or long term cap gains outside of a tax exempt retirement account, then your AGI is likely going to be less than $300K. Heck, you could just be super rich and not have any investments and no income and you'd qualify and it would make financial sense.

My point is I think most who qualify for the rebate are not in these situations. It wasn't a statement meant to judge.

Well said. My hunch was basically the same.

- most model X buyers don’t qualify for the tax rebate
- among those who do
- only a small percentage have some financial circumstances (eg retiree, large deductions, lots of assets, etc) that make their AGI level irrelevant to this discussion.
- the majority are using primarily their income to fund the purchase, and just have the budget for an 80k car.

 

[Super_Popular]

Manifesting price decreases, manifesting price decrease…..

 

[Tiger]

Agreed and to add to that IMO IF you must finance that the monthly payment for ones persons income shouldn't be more than 5-10% of their monthly income. Better to not finance at all especially with these rates, however not many people follow this rule and damn near any rules they just end up buying too much car. Repos are at an all time high

I'd say most people pay perhaps 25-50% of their disposable income on cars. I mean cars like Toyota etc. if bought new in their income bracket.

 

[Prodock]

Interesting that there is a thought that the MX is only being purchased by those making over $300k jointly…who is buying all Jeep Grand Wagoneers then, since they are $30-40k more than a MX? Heck there are plenty of Chevy Silverados being sold for more than $80k. The average vehicle price is now $50k so $72.5 after the tax incentive isn’t much of a stretch for quite a few, never mind that a lot of MYs were sold not very long ago for a similar price.

 

[Jayskywalker21]

Interesting that there is a thought that the MX is only being purchased by those making over $300k jointly…who is buying all Jeep Grand Wagoneers then, since they are $30-40k more than a MX? Heck there are plenty of Chevy Silverados being sold for more than $80k. The average vehicle price is now $50k so $72.5 after the tax incentive isn’t much of a stretch for quite a few, never mind that a lot of MYs were sold not very long ago for a similar price.

Yeah agreed I would assume people who make 80-90k+(Roughly 20-25% of the US population make that and more) would be the ones to buy the Model X's. Average income for Americans are 35-50k