Prices just Dropped

[Octo]

I'm the one posting sourced facts, and you're the one making unfounded claims with no willingness or ability to support them.

blablabla...

So....no....you don't actually have any experience with the type of batteries used in Teslas specifically in combo with Teslas liquid cooling and Teslas battery management system?

Thanks for confirming

Against better judgement: I’m too lazy to counter your sourced facts about resale by writing a peer reviewed thesis. If you think that the Model 3 will have a similar depreciation curve as the S & X bases on your sources, great for you. I hope you won’t be disappointed when the time for trade in arrives.

And yes, I don’t have Tesla cells in our lab. But I do work with cells from many major cell manufacturers, most of them with cutting edge chemistries (some even in 18650 form factor LOL). You apparently believe that Tesla has some magic so it’s pointless to discuss this with you.

 

[raptor5244]

Evidently adding a new base white color into the line-up would have cost more money than it would have saved: Elon Musk on Twitter

Strange, one would think a multi-stage Pearl White would more difficult to service. Body shops charge more to repair it, more difficult to touch up and most other auto manufacturers have an up charge for multi-stage metallic paints when buying new.

The prices for the paint color are too high anyway. There should be no charge (just add it to the base price of the car) except for a small up-charge ($500) for special metallic colors that require multistage paint process.

You can buy a Dodge Challenger in 14 different colors. Granted, four of them are different shades of gray.

 

[Knightshade]

Against better judgement: I’m too lazy to counter your sourced facts about resale by writing a peer reviewed thesis. If you think that the Model 3 will have a similar depreciation curve as the S & X bases on your sources, great for you. I hope you won’t be disappointed when the time for trade in arrives.

Your first problem is thinking "trade in" is usually a good way to get value for a used car

And yes, I don’t have Tesla cells in our lab. But I do work with cells from many major cell manufacturers, most of them with cutting edge chemistries (some even in 18650 form factor LOL). You apparently believe that Tesla has some magic so it’s pointless to discuss this with you.

You seem to keep thinking you are engaging in discussion.

In an actual discussion you'd attempt to support your own arguments rather than just shrug every time someone disclaims or disputes them in any way and toss out nothing but a strawman as a reply... (see the 2 of those you did last post I pointed out- or your now "magic" claim nobody ever made either).

There's lots of real fact based reasons Teslas batteries tend to be good for much longer than say a typical laptop or cell phone battery-

They tend to not sit at max voltage... they're MUCH better, actively, cooled... they typically have a much lower normal depth of discharge... and they tend to have a low average power use... all remain true even if you tend to launch it hard a lot.... that's apart from any superior chemistry the cells might have compared to anyone else.

I mean hell the warranty is 8 years- being worried about buying a 3 year old one is just silly.

 

[raptor5244]

People don’t notice content. They notice price.

I notice the content and and use it to determine overall value.

 

[raptor5244]

All thing aside its paying 1500 Extra for Pearl White paint 3 weeks ago that burns me a bit.

Exactly, Tesla seems to over-rotate on these changes. Pearl White did not have to go from $1500 to zero cost. They could have just dropped it to $750 or something to match black and nobody would have really cared but wiping out the color cost for pearl white altogether seems unnecessary and if anything they left money on the table. They must really want to put more white cars on the road or something. Who knows? Next quarter it will probable change again.

 

[raptor5244]

I have no idea how depreciation will level off. But in 2022, I would not want to buy a three year old Performance 3 that has ancient tech from 2019 *AND* may have abused battery cells from high power launches, hence I don’t expect a good trade in value either.

The batteries have a 8 year 120k mile warranty. What is wrong with a 3 year old cared for M3P with full bumper to bumper and powertrain/battery warranty? Also, what EV vehicles do you see on the horizon that will have far greater tech in just 3 years? I mean most manufacturers are just gearing up now to release something in the next year or two. Some will be super high end $150-200k vehicles. Rivian will introduce a $70k pickup and SUV but where is the supercharging network and having to deal with another small company service support and scaling issues.

 

[pdx_m3s]

$205 OR State tax?


CA Tax and Registration for my config is $3,562! More than the damn state rebate

Oregon has a 0.5% sales tax on new car sales now. Pays for the EV rebate program.

 

[Octo]

The batteries have a 8 year 120k mile warranty. What is wrong with a 3 year old cared for M3P with full bumper to bumper and powertrain/battery warranty? Also, what EV vehicles do you see on the horizon that will have far greater tech in just 3 years? I mean most manufacturers are just gearing up now to release something in the next year or two. Some will be super high end $150-200k vehicles. Rivian will introduce a $70k pickup and SUV but where is the supercharging network and having to deal with another small company service support and scaling issues.

I personally (!) don’t think that there is going to be anything wrong with a 3 year old M3(P) like mine that will never see a track and that will rarely be driven hard.

If you follow some of the threads about buying demos, people usually warn about getting one “as it will have frequently been 3.2s 0-60 launched”. So the “P” is already a red flag even for a super low mileage car. Doesn’t matter if there’s a scientific reason. It’s psychological. And for a P with 30k miles without known history, it can actually be rough on the battery if it was driven hard on a track regularly.

I don’t have a crystal ball about improvements but here is my EV experience over 6 years: First one had 80 miles range in perfect conditions. I could only use it as a city commuter and had my share of ice cold trips without the heater just to make it back home. My second one had 120 miles range and a gas engine range extender. So no more range issues for city driving but impractical for road trips.

My Model 3 is the first EV that may have “classic” car utility and that’s why I bought it outright.

I’d expect a Model 3 2022 if Tesla survives (or competing EVs) to have 500 miles range and 350kW charging.
I also expect to have HW5 that can reliably deliver Level 3 autonomous driving.

 

[raptor5244]

I personally (!) don’t think that there is going to be anything wrong with a 3 year old M3(P) like mine that will never see a track and that will rarely be driven hard.

If you follow some of the threads about buying demos, people usually warn about getting one “as it will have frequently been 3.2s 0-60 launched”. So the “P” is already a red flag even for a super low mileage car. Doesn’t matter if there’s a scientific reason. It’s psychological. And for a P with 30k miles without known history, it can actually be rough on the battery if it was driven hard on a track regularly.

I don’t have a crystal ball about improvements but here is my EV experience over 6 years: First one had 80 miles range in perfect conditions. I could only use it as a city commuter and had my share of ice cold trips without the heater just to make it back home. My second one had 120 miles range and a gas engine range extender. So no more range issues for city driving but impractical for road trips.

My Model 3 is the first EV that may have “classic” car utility and that’s why I bought it outright.

I’d expect a Model 3 2022 if Tesla survives (or competing EVs) to have 500 miles range and 350kW charging.
I also expect to have HW5 that can reliably deliver Level 3 autonomous driving.

I go through cars pretty quick. I am really enjoying the M3P right now but I would love to see some affordable sport sports car/coupe EVs hit the market. Not $200k roadsters but something in the $50k range that looks the part, much lighter, none of this 4100 lbs bologna. My guess is maybe an EV version of the Mustang, 3200lbs, sporty interior, drive modes, mag ride, HUD, aggressive stance and wheel/tire combinations, Brembo Brakes, RWD, convertible option, some sort of gearing with relaxed traction and stability control tuning.

 

[Knightshade]

I’d expect a Model 3 2022 if Tesla survives (or competing EVs) to have 500 miles range and 350kW charging.
I also expect to have HW5 that can reliably deliver Level 3 autonomous driving.

Outside maybe charging speed those are pretty unrealistic expectations given the state of non-tesla EVs (and even Teslas own history of improvements over more than double than amount of time)...unless you're talking about much more expensive/larger models... (the $250,000 roadster will meet your range expectations at least!)

Also given the actual timeline Tesla stated in public for even just HW4 was 2 years from now (and HW3 took about as long as well from finalizing the design).

 

[cbaaz]

i don’t get the complaints from 2018 buyers. The moment you took delivery your car value dropped by $7500 vs MSRP on top of the well known instant used car hit *AND* the EV technology curve depreciation.
Bonus extra depreciation for the Performance model as this has the reputation of being driven hard.

I bought a Perfomance 3 last month and knew the moment I signed the papers that I can kiss those $61k goodbye.

Some people really should lease.

People will see similar, but smaller “issues” with leasing. A P3D lease is about $100/month less this month than if it were done in June.

Cars, houses, stocks, whatever - you make the best deal you can at the time of purchase. Too bad we can’t sell call options against our car “positions” to lower our cost basis !

 

[Octo]

Outside maybe charging speed those are pretty unrealistic expectations given the state of non-tesla EVs (and even Teslas own history of improvements over more than double than amount of time)...unless you're talking about much more expensive/larger models... (the $250,000 roadster will meet your range expectations at least!)

Also given the actual timeline Tesla stated in public for even just HW4 was 2 years from now (and HW3 took about as long as well from finalizing the design).

Look, I specifically wrote that I don’t have a crystal ball so this of course can be totally wrong. Range is the holy grail right now (not FSD) for EVs and getting that up to 500 miles (which is feasible in 3 years compared to Level 5 autonomy) will be key to convert more people from ICE to EV.

Personally I find it fascinating that people like you still rely on official Tesla claims wrt FSD. Eyeroll. Well, Elon already sold you a bridge, so I guess I should expect your hopeful naïveté.
BTW, no serious HW dev team develops these things like you seem to think they do.

 

[Knightshade]

Look, I specifically wrote that I don’t have a crystal ball so this of course can be totally wrong. Range is the holy grail right now (not FSD) for EVs and getting that up to 500 miles (which is feasible in 3 years compared to Level 5 autonomy) will be key to convert more people from ICE to EV.

I don't think so.

The average american drives between 10 and 30 miles per day (depending if you prefer mean or median).

The 200+ to 300+ miles Tesla offers now is more than plenty.

As evidence of this, the Model 3 is literally selling faster than Tesla can build them.

The only thing keeping Tesla from converted even more folks to EVs is they're hitting a wall on factory capacity and battery supply.... (with GF3 looking to help on the 1st issue before end of year and both additional sourcing for GF3 in Asia and Panasonic improving production volume at GF1 for the 2nd)

There's no value whatsoever to having 500 miles range vs 200-300 for the vast vast majority of driving situations... (and the supercharger network handles most of the remaining ones)... hell most ICE vehicles don't have 500 miles of range.

Personally I find it fascinating that people like you still rely on official Tesla claims wrt FSD

so...another strawman argument from you?

The only FSD related thing in the post you are replying to is about the computer hardware development timeline.

We already know for a fact it was ~2 years from finalizing specs to rolling HW3 out in production cars.... and that they stated it'd be about another 2 years for HW4 which is in development now. Not sure what basis you'd have to doubt the second fact given the first?

BTW, no serious HW dev team develops these things like you seem to think they do.

... since other than mentioning the publicly known timelines I haven't said a word about how they develop them you appear to have gone with a 2-fer on strawmen this time.

 

[insaneoctane]

Now that the LR RWD is "axed", does it not have a new price point just until inventory is gone?

 

[FoverM]

I don't think so.

The average american drives between 10 and 30 miles per day (depending if you prefer mean or median).

The 200+ to 300+ miles Tesla offers now is more than plenty.

I'm going to disagree with you on this point. The #1 question I got when I told people I was buying a Tesla was, "how do you go on a road trip?". The mean, median, or mode talk doesn't matter (they already know that Teslas are the ultimate in-town cars). For example, we're going to Cherokee, NC (134 miles) in a couple of months and my wife just asked, "we're taking your P3, right?". Well, when I use abetterrouteplanner.com, it says that if we start at home with 100% we'll arrive there with 45% and it'll take 2:33 time (which is same as an ICE). Fine. However, the return is a total pain. I have to divert to the supercharger in Asheville, NC, charge for 26 minutes, making the return time 4:46. That's a significant difference. In our ICE, I can go up and back direct because there isn't an issue with getting gas along the way.

With our ICE cars I almost never think about range. You cannot underestimate the importance of convenience! People don't want to "plan" routes because of limitations, they want to go and do things.

 

[Leafdriver333]

Rest assured, these cells do age accelerated if you subject them to massive load spikes.

If this is true, it may be wise to stay away from used Performance 3's.

I'm going to disagree with you on this point. The #1 question I got when I told people I was buying a Tesla was, "how do you go on a road trip?". The mean, median, or mode talk doesn't matter (they already know that Teslas are the ultimate in-town cars). For example, we're going to Cherokee, NC (134 miles) in a couple of months and my wife just asked, "we're taking your P3, right?". Well, when I use abetterrouteplanner.com, it says that if we start at home with 100% we'll arrive there with 45% and it'll take 2:33 time (which is same as an ICE). Fine. However, the return is a total pain. I have to divert to the supercharger in Asheville, NC, charge for 26 minutes, making the return time 4:46. That's a significant difference. In our ICE, I can go up and back direct because there isn't an issue with getting gas along the way.

With our ICE cars I almost never think about range. You cannot underestimate the importance of convenience! People don't want to "plan" routes because of limitations, they want to go and do things.

It was fun to try out a road trip with my SR+ a couple of times. But it is definitely a sacrifice in convenience.

 

[Minick90]

I’m on day 7 of ownership and decided to go with just the Standard Range + but opted for the $1500 white upgrade and seeing now that I got shafted for $2400 makes me a little upset I kinda want to return the car.

 

[AustinPowers]

I could now get a P3D (including set of winter tires) in base colour for a little less than what I paid for my blue non-P.
Am I annoyed? Not really, wasn't interested in the P to begin with anyway.

What I don't understand is why they made the pearl multi-coat white the new standard colour. The multi-coat red is still an expensive option. I thought the multi-coating process was what made it expensive. By that logic I wouldn't expect them to make a multi-coat colour standard. Especially as you now have to pay extra to get flat black. Weird, who would pay more for less?

 

[TestHK]

Is the P3D- in Hong Kong good price at US$53000 before tax? Has 18” wheels

 

[TestHK]

Is the P3D- in Hong Kong good price at US$53000 before tax? Has 18” wheels