Profound progress towards FSD

[mikes_fsd]

Autonomy Day demo was carefully crafted to only show the best.

I have a newsflash for you... the Autonomy Day demo was carefully crafted!

Tesla is trying to get "automated turns" to be reliable. Other companies are doing thousands of unprotected left turns reliably per day!

Reliable for 1+million ppl in all kinds of states/countries.
Reliable for a pre-mapped city with a safety driver in a few dozen cars.

Like talking about trains vs cars.

Do you understand why I am unimpressed with your overhyped "it is solved"?

 

[tmp131]

You mean, what we have released to us is not L4 or L5 or even L3.

.

That's a fair assessment. I didn't think it that way.

 

[diplomat33]

Do you understand why I am unimpressed with your overhyped "it is solved"?

No, I don't understand how you are not impressed. Waymo, Cruise and others have real full self-driving cars. Are they perfect? No. But they can handle a lot of difficult city driving that Tesla is still a long way from being able to do.

 

[mikes_fsd]

real full self-driving cars

Again, just like "solved" this definition for "real" needs to be re-evaluated.

they can handle a lot of difficult city driving that Tesla is still a long way from being able to do.

No, they can only handle the city driving that is pre-mapped in detail.
Completely the opposite of the approach that Karpathy described of "Tesla encountering intersections for the first time every time".


Take a Waymo car drop it in Atlanta, and tell it to go somewhere.
It will - by design - shutdown the car. It will NOT even attempt the trip. (until that section of Atlanta is mapped and marked as ready for the Waymo One service)

 

[diplomat33]

Again, just like "solved" this definition for "real" needs to be re-evaluated.

So truth is not truth?

"Real" is well well-defined. If it meets the SAE definition of L4 or L5, it is real full self-driving.

No, they can only handle the city driving that is pre-mapped in detail.
Completely the opposite of the approach that Karpathy described of "Tesla encountering intersections for the first time every time".

Take a Waymo car drop it in Atlanta, and tell it to go somewhere.
It will - by design - shutdown the car. It will NOT even attempt the trip. (until that section of Atlanta is mapped and marked as ready for the Waymo One service)

This is completely false.

I specifically asked Waymo about discrepancies between the HD maps and the other sensors, what would the car do? You can see Waymo's answer. They said HD maps are just the first step, not the decision-maker and the car is designed to still drive safely if it encounters something new.

If the cars can navigate safely if something new happens like construction, that implies that the cars do use camera, radar and lidar as the decision-maker to drive and therefore could drive without maps if they wanted to. It's right there from Waymo's own mouth. So Waymo cars would not shut down if they encountered a case that is not pre-mapped or not mapped at all.

 

[mikes_fsd]

This is completely false.

No you are completely false.
He is not talking what will Waymo car do in an entirely new place that has not been mapped.
He is talking about a divergence from HD map.

In fact in their reply they state, HD maps serve as the FOUNDATION.
I don't know about you but a foundation is kind of important, i.e. something you cannot work without.

tossing random quotes out is not going to help if you are not willing to look at the context.

 

[diplomat33]

No you are completely false.
He is not talking what will Waymo car do in an entirely new place that has not been mapped.
He is talking about a divergence from HD map.

In fact in their reply they state, HD maps serve as the FOUNDATION.
I don't know about you but a foundation is kind of important, i.e. something you cannot work without.

tossing random quotes out is not going to help if you are not willing to look at the context.

You said Waymo cars can only do city driving that is pre-mapped first. That is false because if Waymo cars encounter a construction zone which is not pre-mapped, they can still drive and they don't shut down.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Read your own question to Waymo and their response out loud.

In what universe can you jump to this from that...

So Waymo cars would not shut down if they encountered a case that is not pre-mapped or not mapped at all.

 

[mikes_fsd]

You said Waymo cars can only do city driving that is pre-mapped first.

Yes, and that is what Waymo is saying here...

Do you know what you need to get to the second step?
The first step.


Interesting, the first step for Waymo is to have HD maps of the area they will operate in.
also, he calls it "the foundation"

 

[mikes_fsd]

That is false because if Waymo cars encounter a construction zone which is not pre-mapped, they can still drive and they don't shut down.

Way to change the subject.

let me help you once more:

if Waymo cars encounter a construction zone - in an already HD mapped area - which is not pre-mapped, they can still drive and they don't shut down.

Waymo cannot operate without HD Maps, period.
That is the point of it being THE foundation and THE first step.

 

[diplomat33]

Yes, and that is what Waymo is saying here...

Do you know what you need to get to the second step?
The first step.


Interesting, the first step for Waymo is to have HD maps of the area they will operate in.
also, he calls it "the foundation"

You don't understand how HD maps work. Yes, Waymo builds HD maps as the foundation. But the cars also have cameras, radar and lidar that they also use to drive and make driving decisions. They don't drive just on HD maps. Take away the HD maps and the cars would still have camera vision, radar and lidar to drive with.

 

[mikes_fsd]

HD Map is the sandbox that Waymo can operate in, if this is not mapped, it is not part of your sandbox so you cannot make your decisions outside of the sandbox.

Now, Waymo will react to new things that happen in that sandbox, but it/the area/road/section/tiles/quadrant must, first, be in that sandbox.... i.e. part of the HD map.

 

[mikes_fsd]

You don't understand how HD maps work. Yes, Waymo builds HD maps as the foundation. But the cars also have cameras, radar and lidar that they also use to drive and make driving decisions. They don't drive just on HD maps. Take away the HD maps and the cars would still have camera vision, radar and lidar to drive with.

I understand how HD maps work just fine,
You have no idea how a foundational component of system works.
Or even a basic idea of what the word "foundation" means in a system.

Take away the HD maps and the cars would still have camera vision, radar and lidar to drive with.

Take away HD Maps from Waymo cars and they are bricked as far as FSD goes, they will not attempt any driving on their own.
Period.

That is how they are designed to operate.

 

[diplomat33]

I understand how HD maps work just fine,
You have no idea how a foundational component of system works.
Or even a basic idea of what the word "foundation" means in a system.

Take away HD Maps from Waymo cars and they are bricked as far as FSD goes, they will not attempt any driving on their own.
Period.

That is how they are designed to operate.

I understand full well what foundational mean. Yes, Waymo cars are designed to work with HD maps. Waymo does not deploy their self-driving cars without pre-mapping first. I know that. All I am saying that they have the camera vision, radar and lidar that they could drive without HD maps, if Waymo wanted to. But it would not be as reliable as with HD maps so Waymo chooses not to do FSD without HD maps.

But you are just deflecting from Tesla's lack of FSD. If you drop a Tesla anywhere, can it do full self-driving? No, it can't.

 

[diplomat33]

Look, I believe Tesla will make a lot of progress with it's ADAS in the next year. We know Tesla is working on "making turns at intersections", "roundabouts", "pothole detection", "detecting emergency vehicles". So we know Tesla is working on good stuff. But to argue that Tesla is close to FSD or already has FSD is silly. There is still a lot that our cars cannot do autonomously. Heck, just the other day, I had to disengage to avoid hitting traffic cones. Our cars are far from FSD. And the only evidence we have of what Tesla has in development is a 12 mile demo last year that was only L3. And Elon says that his car which has the best software can't quite do his commute without a disengagement. So Tesla still has a lot of work to do.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Look, I believe Tesla will make a lot of progress with it's ADAS in the next year. We know Tesla is working on "making turns at intersections", "roundabouts", "pothole detection", "detecting emergency vehicles". So we know Tesla is working on good stuff. But to argue that Tesla is close to FSD or already has FSD is silly. There is still a lot that our cars cannot do autonomously. Heck, just the other day, I had to disengage to avoid hitting traffic cones. Our cars are far from FSD. And the only evidence we have of what Tesla has in development is a 12 mile demo last year that was only L3. And Elon says that his car which has the best software can't quite do his commute without a disengagement. So Tesla still has a lot of work to do.

I am glad you found something to sooth yourself with.

 

[mikes_fsd]

if Waymo wanted to.

They cannot just "want to" without rewriting a bunch of their stack, it is foundational to how their cars operate. It is a choice that they made, that part is correct, but it is a choice that they cannot turn on or off willy nilly.
You are lost my friend.

 

[mikes_fsd]

If you drop a Tesla anywhere, can it do full self-driving?

The discussion was squarely around Waymo reliance on HD maps being foundational (not optional), but you want to have a test lets do a head-to-head

Drop a Tesla with FSD and a Waymo car into a non-HD mapped part of USA

• 99% of the time the Tesla will get you farther than the Waymo car.... TODAY
• The other 1% will be a tie, Tesla and Waymo will not go anywhere.

Tell me who's the leader now.

 

[diplomat33]

They cannot just "want to" without rewriting a bunch of their stack, it is foundational to how their cars operate. It is a choice that they made, that part is correct, but it is a choice that they cannot turn on or off willy nilly.
You are lost my friend.

I am not sure about the "lost" part, lol, but the rest is probably true. I don't have any problem with Waymo reliance on HD maps though. All the experts on FSD say that HD maps is essential to doing L4 and L5.

 

[mikes_fsd]

All the experts on FSD

Oh, so even Karpathy agrees that HD maps are required for FSD?
Or do you no longer consider Karpathy an expert on FSD?