Profound progress towards FSD

[diplomat33]

Drop a Tesla with FSD and a Waymo car into a non-HD mapped part of USA

• 99% of the time the Tesla will get you farther than the Waymo car.... TODAY
• The other 1% will be a tie, Tesla and Waymo will not go anywhere.

Tell me who's the leader now.

This is entirely academic since we don't know the route or anything. There is no way of knowing.

I do know that if you mapped the area, the Waymo car would do 100% of the route autonomously and the Tesla would not. .

 

[diplomat33]

Oh, so even Karpathy agrees that HD maps are required for FSD?
Or do you no longer consider Karpathy an expert?

You got me. Yes, Karpathy is an expert.

I should have said "almost all the experts".

 

[mikes_fsd]

This is entirely academic since we don't know the route or anything. There is no way of knowing.

Not really, this it to bring the focus back on HD maps...

It is a non-HD mapped place somewhere on USA roads.

Waymo will not start driving in a non-HD mapped place.
So, the result will be 100% of the time - do nothing because it is not mapped.
For Tesla, even if you turn it on in the city, the car will come to first intersection signalized or stop sign and just stop waiting on user input.

Anyway you slice it, the Tesla with FSD will get you further than the Waymo car in this scenario 99% of the time.

 

[diplomat33]

Not really, this it to bring the focus back on HD maps...

It is a non-HD mapped place somewhere on USA roads.

Waymo will not start driving in a non-HD mapped place.
So, the result will be 100% of the time - do nothing because it is not mapped.
For Tesla, even if you turn it on in the city, the car will come to first intersection signalized or stop sign and just stop waiting on user input.

Anyway you slice it, the Tesla with FSD will get you further than the Waymo car in this scenario 99% of the time.

What's your point, that the Tesla is better because it will go further without HD maps? Sure. But the Tesla is not doing FSD. Tesla is L2. So yes, without HD maps, Tesla has a driver assist that will go further than a Waymo that is not designed to operate without HD maps.

If you do map the area, the Waymo wins. The Waymo will drive 100% FSD whereas the Tesla will reach the first intersection and stop for driver input.

 

[Buckminster]

Proof that FSD is a solved problem:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1298350042894327808

If Elon can terraform Mars, FSD will be a doddle.

 

[diplomat33]

Car keeps phantom braking in the middle of the intersection on a green light. I am driving along on AP. There is a lead car. The light is green. The stop line is green. Everything is fine. The lead car zooms away. And then when my car reaches the stop line, it suddenly turns red on the screen and my car slams hard on the brakes. Could have gotten rear ended if I had not been paying attention. So yeah, I am skeptical about Tesla doing FSD.

 

[powertoold]

When you guys have interesting AP situations, you should record the footage and share it I always forget to do it.

 

[diplomat33]

When you guys have interesting AP situations, you should record the footage and share it I always forget to do it.

Yeah, I should. Thanks.

I think I will record videos after "feature complete" because then we will have more interesting videos.

 

[tmp131]

Car keeps phantom braking in the middle of the intersection on a green light. I am driving along on AP. There is a lead car. The light is green. The stop line is green. Everything is fine. The lead car zooms away. And then when my car reaches the stop line, it suddenly turns red on the screen and my car slams hard on the brakes. Could have gotten rear ended if I had not been paying attention. So yeah, I am skeptical about Tesla doing FSD.

From my understanding Tesla partnered with Mobile Eye for its initial autopilot. Did phantom braking occured then also? Or did it started after Mobile Eye left?

 

[cucubits]

From my understanding Tesla partnered with Mobile Eye for its initial autopilot. Did phantom braking occured then also? Or did it started after Mobile Eye left?

On my AP1 Model S I never got a single phantom braking instance in about 8 months since I have the car... so yeah, MobilEye was the way to go. Too bad they didn't stick together. I bet FSD would be way further than it is now.

 

[DanCar]

Imgur
Dude trying to get more "views" shows himself in the backseat while autopilot is on.

 

[diplomat33]

Imgur
Dude trying to get more "views" shows himself in the backseat while autopilot is on.

So irresponsible.

 

[Buckminster]

So irresponsible.

Responsibility is a solved problem.

 

[boonedocks]

Responsibility is a solved problem.

This weeks winner of the Darwin Award!!!!

 

[diplomat33]

I know there can be a lot of negativity about what FSD can't do so I thought I would share something positive.

This is a road that I drive every day to work. As you can see there is a pretty long section with no lane line on the right because of that unusually wide side road. When I got my Model 3 in 2018, AP used to get confused at the loss of lane lines and veer to the right only to self-correct at the last moment when it would find the lane line on the right again. Subsequent updates improved the behavior with some regressions, improvements and regressions. But recently on 2020.32.3, it seems pretty solid now. It goes completely straight and does not jink to the right at all. Might not be "profound progress towards FSD" but it is something.

 

[diplomat33]

2020.36 will have some nice AP updates:

Speed Assist Improvements
"“Speed Assist now leverages your car’s cameras to detect speed limit signs to improve the accuracy of speed limit data on local roads. Detected speed limit signs will be displayed in the driving visualization and used to set the associated Speed Limit Warning.”

Green Light Chime
"A chime will play when the traffic light you are waiting for turns green. If you are waiting behind another car, the chime will play once the car advances unless Traffic-Aware Cruise Control or Autosteer is active When Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control is activated, a chime will play when you can confirm to proceed through a green traffic light. To enable, tap Controls > Autopilot > Green traffic Light Chime"

TACC
"Quickly adjust the Traffic-Aware Cruise Control or Autosteer set speed to the current speed by simply tapping the cluster speedometer. You can still tap the speed limit sign to adjust the set speed to the speed limit"

Tesla releases new software update to visually detect speed limit signs, and more - Electrek

 

[drtimhill]

Car keeps phantom braking in the middle of the intersection on a green light. I am driving along on AP. There is a lead car. The light is green. The stop line is green. Everything is fine. The lead car zooms away. And then when my car reaches the stop line, it suddenly turns red on the screen and my car slams hard on the brakes. Could have gotten rear ended if I had not been paying attention. So yeah, I am skeptical about Tesla doing FSD.

While I dont disagree with your skeptical outlook, I'm not sure this is a good example. Most (but not all) of the challenges facing Tesla are in the area of perception. In your example the perception was fine, it was the response that needed fine-tuning. I would assert that response handling, while not a trivial problem, is the lesser of the two major issues facing Tesla atm. That is, the question "Is that a car/person/roadblock?" is far harder to get right than "Should I brake for it?".

 

[diplomat33]

While I dont disagree with your skeptical outlook, I'm not sure this is a good example. Most (but not all) of the challenges facing Tesla are in the area of perception. In your example the perception was fine, it was the response that needed fine-tuning. I would assert that response handling, while not a trivial problem, is the lesser of the two major issues facing Tesla atm. That is, the question "Is that a car/person/roadblock?" is far harder to get right than "Should I brake for it?".

Good point. I do agree that most of Tesla's FSD challenges are perception. However, I am not sure I agree that the response is the lesser of the two issues. Certainly, perception is the first problem. But a bad response to good perception can still be a problem. In my example, if I had not intervened, it could have potentially caused a rear end.

Basically, I am looking at things from the point of view of autonomous driving. Ultimately, FSD requires that the car be able to handle situations correctly as if there was no human in the car. That requires accurate perception AND accurate response.

 

[DDotJ]

A reliable source from Reddit has confirmed with their sources that the 2020.36 update brings the initial components of the AP Rewrite:

Deleted all my comments below as I have a feeling this will blow up. u/110110 is correct. This is an early version of the rewrite. I don’t like to speculate but I will say since this update is public release and didn’t go to early access program. Everything new is running in shadow mode. Nothing major yet. Major stuff in 1-2 months. Leaning towards 1, saying 2 to be safe.

 

[diplomat33]

A reliable source from Reddit has confirmed with their sources that the 2020.36 update brings the initial components of the AP Rewrite:

That's the same source that posted the other leaks awhile back about V11.