Profound progress towards FSD

[mikes_fsd]

Yes because the top paragraph says "almost all circumstances".

Excellent.

Then, 30 days later after they've delivered the original FSD package, Tesla announces an upgraded suite (AP Computer, better cameras, better radar and ultrasonics) and the new cameras and enclosures are able to prevent rain/snow occlusion like 1000% better than the AP3 cars. (hell, lets say they have the laser cleaning ability that Tesla patented)
Do you, as a AP3/FSD owner think you are entitled to have access to the upgraded suite for free?
Do you, as a AP3/FSD owner think you are entitled to have access to the upgraded suite for a fee?
Do you think you're entitled to a portion of the upgraded suite (specifically the computer) for free? For a fee?

 

[diplomat33]

Excellent.

Then, 30 days later after they've delivered the original FSD package, Tesla announces an upgraded suite (AP Computer, better cameras, better radar and ultrasonics) and the new cameras and enclosures are able to prevent rain/snow occlusion like 1000% better than the AP3 cars. (hell, lets say they have the laser cleaning ability that Tesla patented)
Do you, as a AP3/FSD owner think you are entitled to have access to the upgraded suite for free?
Do you, as a AP3/FSD owner think you are entitled to have access to the upgraded suite for a fee?
Do you think you're entitled to a portion of the upgraded suite (specifically the computer) for free? For a fee?

No. I would not consider myself entitled to get the upgrade for free.

 

[mikes_fsd]

No. I would not consider myself entitled to get the upgrade for free.

Do you think there should be a retrofit provided for a fee? a la MCU2 upgrade.

 

[Southpasfan]

Hi All.

I have an order in with Tesla Energy on solar and Powerwalls, so have not been back on this side of the boards for awhile. My wife has also been driving our Model 3 after the latest update more than I have.

I was a bit surprised, but maybe should not have been, that after the latest amazing FSD update we are still in the same groundhog day loop.

I understand that Musk, followed by Tesla, over-promised. Hopefully at some point those in the camp who actually are upset that their cars are not driving themselves yet can find a remedy which would make them feel happy and then get Tesla to give them that remedy.

I don't understand the continued heated debate with respect to Waymo. I understand debate, but a $500,000 car which might be able to function as a commercial robo-taxi in a geofenced town is simply an "apple" whereas a car that anyone can buy with driver-assistance/self-driving features that anyone can buy today is an "orange" and no amount of debate will turn an apple into an orange, or vice versa.

I feel the same now as I did a year ago when I first got our Model 3, and as the FSD features have been rolled out. I was amazed when I drove 450 miles to Lake Tahoe with the car driving itself 99% of the time. I was amazed at summon, I was amazed when I came down one morning and the cones appeared. I was amazed when the stoplights and stopsigns appeared. And I was amazed that the car now can act upon those stoplights and signs.

I suppose if I expected the car to drive itself instead of being amazed at those features I would be disappointed.

But you see, that would not be because the features are not amazing, its because of my expectations.

I don't know when FSD will be solved for all of us. But I find it hard to believe that it won't happen. I mean, all driving boils down to recognizing objects and dealing with them. Some objects are moving, some are stationary. It turns out that getting a computer to convert an object on a camera to a digital object accurately is difficult. From what I have seen getting the car to react to what the computer tell it to do is easy ("easy" in the sense that it has been solved).

If the current cars need anything else in terms of sensors it might be one more 240 degree camera on the very front of the bumper. For the basic function of getting out of a driveway onto a street with cars parked on it or other visual hinderances. Other than that it seems to me the cameras see everything I see and more, and they never get tired.

 

[diplomat33]

Do you think there should be a retrofit provided for a fee? a la MCU2 upgrade.

Yes, assuming of course the sensor upgrade is even compatible with current cars.

But keep in mind that I purchased FSD in 2019. I'm a late comer to FSD. I know some AP1 owners who jumped on AP2 because of the 2016 FSD demo who might feel very differently than I do.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't understand the continued heated debate with respect to Waymo. I understand debate, but a $500,000 car which might be able to function as a commercial robo-taxi in a geofenced town is simply an "apple" whereas a car that anyone can buy with driver-assistance/self-driving features that anyone can buy today is an "orange" and no amount of debate will turn an apple into an orange, or vice versa.

Waymo cars with the FSD hardware costs much less than $500k. That is an old price from a news report some years ago. Waymo has said that their hardware is 10x cheaper now.

There is no "might be able to". Waymo cars are already commercial robotaxis that work without a driver in the seat. The geofencing is optional. Waymo has true full self-driving cars. Tesla does not.

The debate basically hinges on how you measure the winner. If you measure the winner based on who has full self-driving cars, then Waymo is the clear winner. Waymo has FSD and Tesla does not have FSD. But if you measure the winner based on which technology is more useful then a strong case could be made that Tesla is the winner. Tesla does not have FSD but they do have advanced driver assist features that are useful and widely available to a lot of people.

 

[mikes_fsd]

The geofencing is optional. Waymo has true full self-driving cars.

Optional, kinda like ULA saying they can reuse their next Vulcan rocket engines but specifically ordering the engines from Blue Origin without restart ability?
or
Optional, because a dude at a conference said it was optional and you took it as gospel?

Again, I would like you to prove that Tesla does not have full self-driving!

 

[diplomat33]

Optional, kinda like ULA saying they can reuse their next Vulcan rocket engines but specifically ordering the engines from Blue Origin without restart ability?
or
Optional, because a dude at a conference said it was optional and you took it as gospel?

Waymo has perception, planning and driving policy that works everywhere. And I've talked to Waymo engineers who have told me. Yes, I believe them just as you believe Karpathy.

Again, I would like you to prove that Tesla does not have full self-driving!

Definition: FSD is L4 or L5.

Tesla does not have L4 or L5.

Therefore, Tesla does not have FSD.

QED

 

[mikes_fsd]

Yes, I believe them just as you believe Karpathy.

Ahh, okay finally.
Just because you believe and value what Waymo says over what Tesla says! We must take your word for it that their cars can go ANYWHERE without first mapping out EVERYTHING... exactly the opposite of what their website says.... cool

Tesla does not have L4 or L5.

How do you know?
repost from other thread...

For instance, green posted in March 2019 about Tesla's being able to detect and actually react to traffic lights, something he was able to turn on a rooted car, but was not yet available to the rest of us.

Tesla only released the feature to the end users over a year later in April 2020 (2020.12.6).

so, @diplomat33 how do you know they do not have FSD at Tesla?

 

[diplomat33]

Ahh, okay finally.
Just because you believe and value what Waymo says over what Tesla says!

I value what Waymo says because they are the leader in FSD. Why would I value Tesla's word over Waymo's word when Tesla is behind on FSD?

We must take your word for it that their cars can go ANYWHERE without first mapping out EVERYTHING... exactly the opposite of what their website says.... cool

Yes, Waymo maps things before driving. That is part of their process for making their FSD more reliable. But they have perception, planning and driving policy that can work anywhere.

How do you know?
repost from other thread...

For instance, green posted in March 2019 about Tesla's being able to detect and actually react to traffic lights, something he was able to turn on a rooted car, but was not yet available to the rest of us.

Tesla only released the feature to the end users over a year later in April 2020 (2020.12.6).

so, @diplomat33 how do you know they do not have FSD at Tesla?

Because Elon described the best software that Tesla has, that is in his car and it is not L4 or L5. Elon told us about his work commute which is the best software Tesla has, and it is not FSD.

 

[diplomat33]

@mspisars Also, you keep posting the video of traffic light control. That's just one tiny piece of FSD. Just because Tesla is working on a couple pieces of FSD that we don't have in our cars yet, does not mean that they have FSD. To have FSD requires that you have all the pieces done and assembled. It would be like saying "I have some flour you don't know about, so maybe I have an entire finished baked cake." That's a huge leap of logic that you can't make.

 

[mikes_fsd]

you keep posting the video of traffic light control. That's just one tiny piece of FSD.

That video is only to point out the fact that functionality that we get is many times over a year old for Tesla internally. i.e. it was more to point to the timestamps of when the video posted vs when we got 2020.12.6 released to general Tesla population.

 

[powertoold]

We'll know the answer in 3 months likely, 6 months definitely. Wait for the rewrite folks!

 

[tmp131]

I don't know how far Tesla is in the race for level 5 autonomy, but I know there are other players in this field right now. Besides that autonomy day video from 1 year ago, I haven't seen any other video. Maybe there are more, but I just can't find them. Below is video on autonomous driving with Mobile Eye . I think it is quite impressive.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't know how far Tesla is in the race for level 5 autonomy, but I know there are other players in this field right now. Besides that autonomy day video from 1 year ago, I haven't seen any other video. Maybe there are more, but I just can't find them. Below is video on autonomous driving with Mobile Eye . I think it is quite impressive.

Tesla has not put out any more demos since Autonomy Day. The one demo from Autonomy Day is all Tesla put out in a year and a half.

It's pretty obvious that Tesla is lagging behind in the race for L5. You just have to look at what other companies like Mobileye, Waymo, Cruise are doing compared to what Tesla is doing to see that.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1298116521991057408
Solved problem.

 

[tmp131]

Tesla has not put out any more demos since Autonomy Day. The one demo from Autonomy Day is all Tesla put out in a year and a half.

It's pretty obvious that Tesla is lagging behind in the race for L5. You just have to look at what other companies like Mobileye, Waymo, Cruise are doing compared to what Tesla is doing to see that.

Tesla NOT releasing new videos makes me wonder where they are in the L5 race . I know Navigant Research rates Tesla very low, but I don’t know how much to trust Navigant Research.
I will play devil’s advocate here: I think the market is fairly efficient. There are many in the market with a bunch of money thinks that Tesla is the leader in this L5 race; and henceforth current TSLA valuation. With all that money the market has, I think there might be a chance that they are correct . I mean they can do all kind of research with that kind of money to come to conclusion that tesla is indeed the leader in this race. Certainly, the market could be wrong. I do agree right now Tesla does not have true FSD. Auto lane change and NOA is not L4 or L5. I am not even sure that’s even L3 .

 

[mikes_fsd]

I do agree right now Tesla does not have true FSD. Auto lane change and NOA is not L4 or L5. I am not even sure that’s even L3 .

You mean, what we have released to us is not L4 or L5 or even L3.

As pointed out, the AP traffic light recognition and response functionality was in our cars for over a year before Tesla allowed us (released the ability) to turn it on.
Autonomy Day video proves they can do L3 or L4 depending on how you look at it.

L4 is geo-fenced, and the problem with that is there is nothing that says you can't claim L4 if it is less than 50 miles of geo-fenced road, or some bs like that, same reason it makes the entire L4 segment kinda useless, because some automakers quite literally have maps of which road you can and cannot turn on their ADAS system.

Basically, L4 can be gamed by anyone who is willing to try.

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1298116521991057408
Solved problem.

Not quite "solved". Elon wrote: "It’s almost working reliably"

What a joke! This is a feature that everybody has already solved by now and Tesla still has not finished it yet.

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla NOT releasing new videos makes me wonder where they are in the L5 race .

If Tesla was close to L5, we would be seeing impressive demos of the car self-driving on busy city streets but we don't because Tesla can't do it yet. By Elon's own admission, they don't even have "turning at intersections" done yet. This is something everybody else has already solved by now. Tesla is far behind in L5.