PSA: Tesla solar panels $1.70-$1.99/watt

[Sw0rdf1sh]

Tesla may have priced their panels below competitors - but probably more in the range of 5-10% - not 38%.

Since our electricity costs $.11/KWh, the break even on a 16KW/4 PW system (which wouldn't provide all of our electricity) would be around 20 years. Removing one PW would reduce that to 18 years. Still much too long, especially considering the warranty would run out for most (if not all) of the components well before we hit break even...

However, if Tesla really had lowered their panel prices by 38% below the current pricing, that would have reduced the break even to 15 years (with 4 PW) or 13 years (with 3 PW), getting closer to a reasonable number in an area with low electric rates.

I think I may be in my home for the next 10 years minimum and I have been considering Solar to offset Power Consumption. I live near the Coast and I am interested in utilizing Powerwall when we have Hurricanes, Power Outages, etc. instead of a Natural Gas Whole House Generator.

I am very interested in the additional Federal Tax Incentives, as I think I could greatly use them this year to offset income tax.

It sounds weird when I think about a "break even" being so far out even though I would hope I would be experiencing benefits along the way. (Reduced Power Bill, Backup Power during outages)

Not arguing with you at all, just very interesting that it takes that long and thought provoking. I found your posts very informative and appreciate you confirming the pricing with Tesla.

 

[bob_p]

The 30% tax credit is only this year and will start ramping down next year, which is why we are continuing to monitor Tesla's pricing to see if there are enough changes to reduce the break even far enough to help justify the investment.

Another concern is in home resale. We checked with realtors about the advantages/disadvantages of reselling a home in our area with solar panels - and they indicated having solar panels can make it more difficult to resell a home since very few homes have solar panels in our area (due to the low electric rates). Buyers are concerned about the impact to the roof and the additional complexity of having to maintain the solar panels. Having the solar panels likely will not add much if anything to resale value.

On the other hand, having a natural gas generator is viewed as a plus by buyers, and can help when reselling the home and increase home value.

If we decide to go with solar panels/PW, we'll do that knowing we could make it even more difficult to resell our (large) house and that we probably won't recover the cost at resale.

At least property taxes should exempt the solar panels/PW...

Recently we've seen two multi-hour grid outages - if we get another one, that may push us over the edge and get us to the point of ordering a system.

 

[ggies07]

On the other hand, having a natural gas generator is viewed as a plus by buyers, and can help when reselling the home and increase home value.

hahahaha. And that is what's wrong with our system. man.....

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Another concern is in home resale. We checked with realtors about the advantages/disadvantages of reselling a home in our area with solar panels - and they indicated having solar panels can make it more difficult to resell a home since very few homes have solar panels in our area (due to the low electric rates). Buyers are concerned about the impact to the roof and the additional complexity of having to maintain the solar panels. Having the solar panels likely will not add much if anything to resale value.

On the other hand, having a natural gas generator is viewed as a plus by buyers, and can help when reselling the home and increase home value.

Electricity isn't that expensive in Colorado but I'd bet that a house with solar panels would add to the value and command a higher price. Given two similar houses, one with 'free' electricity and one without, I would think most buyers would make the choice to get the one with solar. Who wouldn't want free electricity for most of the rest of their life? Given another choice of two houses, both with solar, I would take efficiency but also aesthetics into account. I've seen some really nice looking solar panel installs but I've seen some really ugly solar installs as well. Since you would be the one making the decision, you could make sure the aesthetics of your install would compliment the house. Another option is the Tesla solar roof. t can be expensive but it looks great.

Also, what are you referring to with "the additional complexity of having to maintain the solar panels"? Once they are installed they are pretty much good for 30 years unless the inverter goes out. That's a very easy part to swap out. With natural gas generators, they might require weekly tests and you would need to get it serviced every year. That's way more maintenance and ongoing costs than solar would ever require.

Another thing to consider is noise level. If the power goes out and you have solar and Powerwalls, your neighbors will never know that you are still living comfortably since solar and Powerwalls are silent. With a generator, you could keep yourself and your neighbors awake for days! I know this from experience. The grid was recently down for us for nearly 48 hours. While our Powerwalls kept our house powered for most of the outage, my neighbors had a generator which everyone in the neighborhood could hear. I couldn't sleep for two days thanks to that generator.

Lastly, I would think that many who are installing solar aren't doing it only considering the resale value. They are doing it because it's the right thing to do for a sustainable future.

 

[Tress]

The 30% tax credit is only this year and will start ramping down next year, which is why we are continuing to monitor Tesla's pricing to see if there are enough changes to reduce the break even far enough to help justify the investment.

Another concern is in home resale. We checked with realtors about the advantages/disadvantages of reselling a home in our area with solar panels - and they indicated having solar panels can make it more difficult to resell a home since very few homes have solar panels in our area (due to the low electric rates). Buyers are concerned about the impact to the roof and the additional complexity of having to maintain the solar panels. Having the solar panels likely will not add much if anything to resale value.

On the other hand, having a natural gas generator is viewed as a plus by buyers, and can help when reselling the home and increase home value.

If we decide to go with solar panels/PW, we'll do that knowing we could make it even more difficult to resell our (large) house and that we probably won't recover the cost at resale.

At least property taxes should exempt the solar panels/PW...

Recently we've seen two multi-hour grid outages - if we get another one, that may push us over the edge and get us to the point of ordering a system.

Bob,
Check out this research on Zillow. I believe there is a shift occuring towards Solar nationally, but it will take time.

Homes With Solar Panels Sell for 4.1% More - Zillow Research

 

[ggies07]

Bob,
Check out this research on Zillow. I believe there is a shift occuring towards Solar nationally, but it will take time.

Homes With Solar Panels Sell for 4.1% More - Zillow Research

good to see!

Personal preferences play a role, too: More than 80% of home buyers say energy-efficient features are important, according to the Zillow Group Consumer Housing Trends Report.

 

[Shygar]

It also depends if you can see the solar panels from the road. And that of course depends greatly on how the house is oriented. Mine face the street and so do many other houses in my neighborhood, but some people might not like the look. Especially if they aren't used to having them around.

 

[BJReplay]

Long time reader first time poster in these cost of PV threads.

Does anyone know why prices are so high in the US? I am comparing to AUS.

Is it town or utility permit costs that get built into the quotes? Are the panels actually more expensive? Perhaps due to tariffs? Is it too early in the cycle that there isn't really good competition? Or does Tesla charge a premium over other installers?

Here in Aus I paid $1.94 (AUD) / Watt fully installed back in 2012 for top quality panels and a top quality inverter (after incentives - would have been closer to $2.50 before incentives). No need for microinverters or optimisers since I have no shading.

Today I could buy a price leading (e.g. not top quality) system for AUD$0.65/W after incentives (e.g. Best Solar Panels Australia | Solar System | Arise Solar) fully installed.

From a reliable source that surveys various quotes, and categorises the systems being quoted, even a premium 5kW system is coming in at AUD$1.36 and microinverter system at AUD$1.63 (see Current solar power system prices: Residential and Commercial - Solar Choice for details of this for various cities and the average). Prices drop, of course, for larger systems. For example, in Perth (probably the most competitive market, because it has both plentiful sun and high electricity prices), for a 7kW Premium system, it is AUD$0.92/W.

Of course, all of those costs are AUD$, and converting to $USD by multiplying by 0.7 means that a premium microinverter 5kW system is coming in at USD$1.14/W, and a premium central inverter system is coming in at USD$0.95/W. The Perth 7kW system is USD$0.65/W, and a cheap 5kW system is as little as USD$0.46/W.

I think exchange rates matter - pretty much all of our panels are imported, and all of our inverters are imported (there's a small local manufacturing presence in inverters and panels, but they are very expensive).

 

[dotbombjoe]

Another concern is in home resale. We checked with realtors about the advantages/disadvantages of reselling a home in our area with solar panels - and they indicated having solar panels can make it more difficult to resell a home since very few homes have solar panels in our area (due to the low electric rates). Buyers are concerned about the impact to the roof and the additional complexity of having to maintain the solar panels. Having the solar panels likely will not add much if anything to resale value.

I wonder if some of the hesitation the realtor sees is from leased panels or something. Leased panels definitely complicate the sales process. I would think owned panels would be easy to dispel any concerns: they are clearly an asset. Even in a market where solar isn't common, I'd be a little surprised if the existence of solar was truly viewed as a burden that would hold up a sale -- if anything, I'd expect a good realtor to be able to leverage it to close the sale. Agree that it won't add any value to the home in your market, but it should help it sell faster.

...but obviously, I'm not a realtor in your neighborhood so I dunno. Generally though, I'd be cautious about putting too much faith in anything your realtor tells you...and not just about solar!

On the other hand, having a natural gas generator is viewed as a plus by buyers, and can help when reselling the home and increase home value.

I buy the part about it being viewed as a plus, I do not buy the case that it will increase the value of your home. No way. I worked for one of the premier companies providing residential home price estimates and that item is not going to allow you to sell your home for more. Like solar though, it should help you sell it more quickly because it is an amenity people care about, just not one that bumps up your home value.

Your scenario re: power backup after storms is also interesting; I suspect a natural gas generator would be significantly more reliable and suited to the purpose. Solar is intermittent, especially around storm weather...and batteries will only take you so long without recharging.

FWIW, my understanding is that generators have a LOT more maintenance than solar. If you want them to work reliably (when you need them), you are expected to do regular testing of the equipment. They have parts that need replacement/maintenance and can be loud. If you only do testing right before the storm hits, there is a fair chance you won't get it repaired in time to handle the storm.

So, Solar+Batteries is a far more convenient option and over time, it will likely pay for itself...but it may not be as reliable to get you through storms. Generator will cost much less up front and can be very reliable but will likely require much more maintenance and is somewhat of a sunk cost.

 

[bob_p]

We're in the Houston area - and have ridden out several hurricanes.

Usually the hurricane hits, then the power goes out, and by the next day the storm has passed and it's sunny as the hurricane takes all of the clouds with the storm. And with so many areas without power, it can take hours to days to get power restored. Solar panels plus PowerWalls should work well in this situation. And because you know the hurricane is coming, you'd charge the PowerWalls to 100% by the time the storm hits - and then manage electric usage to stretch that charge as long as you could until the panels get sun.

Hurricane Harvey was different. The storm hit the coast south and west of Houston, bringing us heavy rain. The storm stopped and then backed up off the coast again - and moved slowly along the coast line before heading back inland around Houston. We ended up with days of heavy rain and very little sun - and once the storm finally hit our area, we again lost power. So it may have been more difficult to get through that storm with panels & PowerWalls - though based on when we lost power, we may have made it through that outage with panels/PowerWalls.

A generator requires more maintenance. It's loud when it runs. It takes a moment before the generator kicks in after the power goes out. And there aren't any tax incentives (like the 30% incentive for panels with PowerWalls). But, the cost of purchasing a generator is much lower than panels/PowerWalls and we can get a generator large enough to handle all of our power usage, while we'd likely have to do some energy management with the PowerWalls.

We're continuing to monitor Tesla's pricing. Based on the current pricing, break even appears to be 18 to 20 years - too long (at $.11/KWh for electricity).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Since our electricity costs $.11/KWh, the break even on a 16KW/4 PW system (which wouldn't provide all of our electricity) would be around 20 years. Removing one PW would reduce that to 18 years. Still much too long, especially considering the warranty would run out for most (if not all) of the components well before we hit break even...

However, if Tesla really had lowered their panel prices by 38% below the current pricing, that would have reduced the break even to 15 years (with 4 PW) or 13 years (with 3 PW), getting closer to a reasonable number in an area with low electric rates.

At least in our area - don't believe they'll be getting many orders based on the "new" lower prices...

Why do you need Powerwalls at all? Do you live in an area without net metering or decent grid compensation? Any way you slice it, $2.50/W for solar alone has a payback period of 4-9 years depending on where you live.

I'm a worst case scenario in Philadelphia, with absolutely zero state incentives, and my payback would be about 8 years. The remaining 17 years on the panel warranty would be free electricity.

What's the problem?

 

[TSV2000]

Mind if I ask who you went with for an installer?

Yes, I'm also interested in a good installer in the SF Bay Area.

 

[gnumeric]

Yes, I'm also interested in a good installer in the SF Bay Area.

I am in the SF Bay Area (south bay) and I just went with Tesla for my solar + powerwalls. I have no complaints and am very happy with the whole process and how both projects turned out.

I was wondering though... If you do NOT buy solar + powerwalls through Tesla, can you still see the Solar/Powerwall tab in the Tesla app that shows the solar+grid+home+powerwall energy flow and analytics?

 

[cwied]

I was wondering though... If you do NOT buy solar + powerwalls through Tesla, can you still see the Solar/Powerwall tab in the Tesla app that shows the solar+grid+home+powerwall energy flow and analytics?

Yes, as long as you have Powerwalls, you will see all the numbers. Obviously if you just have solar from someone else, you will have no data in the Tesla app. You need to have access to the Powerwalls in the app because otherwise you'd have no way to configure them.

 

[winfield100]

On the other hand, having a natural gas generator is viewed as a plus by buyers, and can help when reselling the home and increase home value.
At least property taxes should exempt the solar panels/PW...

Recently we've seen two multi-hour grid outages - if we get another one, that may push us over the edge and get us to the point of ordering a system.

May I point out the Sun comes up every day and provides __free__ photons, all you have to do is collect and use them.
do you have a fracked nat gas well you can tap?

We had reports of fights breaking out at the last open gas station before hurricane Irma, in a city of 200,000+ in SW Florida
where you gonna get yer nat gas if a long term lapse occurs? at 10x the price?

 

[TSV2000]

I am in the SF Bay Area (south bay) and I just went with Tesla for my solar + powerwalls. I have no complaints and am very happy with the whole process and how both projects turned out.

I was wondering though... If you do NOT buy solar + powerwalls through Tesla, can you still see the Solar/Powerwall tab in the Tesla app that shows the solar+grid+home+powerwall energy flow and analytics?

Gnumeric, which panels and inverters did they give you? Did you get it before the recent price reduction? I heard the new warranty is less than the old one.

 

[Chancellor32]

Just ordered last week a 4kw system and Powerwall! Hoping to have it online in 2-4 months. Anyone know if there is a long wait time for PW2?

 

[gnumeric]

Gnumeric, which panels and inverters did they give you? Did you get it before the recent price reduction? I heard the new warranty is less than the old one.

I can't find the system document right now, but iirc they are the 315 W all black panels from Panasonic and a Delta inverter. I had a choice for the more efficient panels, but chose the all black ones for aesthetics. I got my solar system last year, before the recent price reduction. My warranty is 25 years (20 years + 5 years more from referral).

Just ordered last week a 4kw system and Powerwall! Hoping to have it online in 2-4 months. Anyone know if there is a long wait time for PW2?

Congrats! I don't know how long the wait is now, but it does seem like they're ramping up Powerwall deliveries. I reserved 3 Powerwalls last year in June 2018. They emailed me in Feb 2019 that they were ready, and installed them April 2019. I've also seen several posts from other people getting their Powerwalls available for install recently.

 

[Chancellor32]

I can't find the system document right now, but iirc they are the 315 W all black panels from Panasonic and a Delta inverter. I had a choice for the more efficient panels, but chose the all black ones for aesthetics. I got my solar system last year, before the recent price reduction. My warranty is 25 years (20 years + 5 years more from referral).



Congrats! I don't know how long the wait is now, but it does seem like they're ramping up Powerwall deliveries. I reserved 3 Powerwalls last year in June 2018. They emailed me in Feb 2019 that they were ready, and installed them April 2019. I've also seen several posts from other people getting their Powerwalls available for install recently.

How do you like the all black panels? Those are the ones I want! Was the efficiency a big difference or pretty nominal?

 

[kengchang]

How do you like the all black panels? Those are the ones I want! Was the efficiency a big difference or pretty nominal?

It's 330W/panel vs 315W/panel. If your rooftop area is huge, not a problem at all.