Public opinion on autonomous cars could get ugly

[EinSV]

According to Elon, AP 8.0 will increase safety by a factor of 2 initially and 3 after additional fleet learning, when compared to cars that don't have AP. Elon Musk sees 3x potential increase in safety with Tesla’s new Autopilot update

Once robust data is available to support the life-saving capabilities of AP, the question may start to become: Why would you put yourself or your children at risk by buying a car that lacks AP or its equivalent and is 2-3X more likely to cause a serious injury or fatality?

I really don't think it has sunk in with most people what a truly groundbreaking safety development this could be.

To put it in context, the CDC estimates that the use of seat belts -- probably the most important automotive safety device ever created -- reduces the risk of serious injury or death by about 50%. Seat Belts: Get the Facts | Motor Vehicle Safety | CDC Injury Center

Elon is estimating that AP could reduce the risk of serious injury or death by about 67%, or potentially a greater reduction than seat belts.

And this is just a start -- only two years after Autopilot was first introduced.

 

[Canuck]

I start with the Tesla crash in Florida and the huge amount of publicity it got. Some people will have an immediate gut reaction and say "I'll never trust my life to a self-driving car." But fast forward a few years when a car with some level of autonomy becomes more common and instead of 1 fatality, there are 10 or 100. Some people will say "I don't want a self-driving car on the road with me."

Fear is a powerful motivator, and I could imaging gory accident photos getting captions like "Share if you don't want to be killed like this. Ban robo-cars!" on Facebook. All the factual arguments in the world won't dislodge a scary meme once it gets implanted.

I disagree. In the end, factual arguments always win out. It's been proven time and time again by a simple review of history. There's not one instance where a safer piece of technology has been banned because it kills a few, but saves a many more lives. If there is one, I would sure like to be told about it.

The fact is that driver assisted cars will kill people, just like seat belts will kill people. There must be other people here who remember the backlash against mandatory seat belts? I'm not that old (50) but I still remember my grandfather saying -- "I'm not going to be trapped by that thing in an accident - I'd rather be thrown free of the vehicle." And to this day, many people die because they were not thrown free of the vehicle, but many, many, more lives are saved because they were buckled in. Once people were told the factual arguments, it didn't take long for my grandfather to start buckling up.

The same will happen with AP. Most people are reasonable and understand that everyday we play the odds with our life. Just crossing the street we rely on someone driving to obey a light in a box for our very existence -- some people lose that gamble but it's rare and it doesn't stop us from crossing.

Your Facebook example suggesting that a scary AP accident picture will override: "All the factual arguments in the world" has been proven by history to be wrong since, by the same reasoning, if we post someone grossly crushed and disfigured in a car crash, and another where the driver was thrown free and walked away, seat belts would be banned. People are not that gullible. Rather, below that Facebook picture you drew for us, I see a ton of comments explaining the difference between some unfortunate deaths and many, many more saved lives to the extent where the poster looks foolish and takes it down.

 

[RubberToe]

I really don't think it has sunk in with most people what a truly groundbreaking safety development this could be.

You are right, and the people who still insist on manually driving their cars while texting on their phones won't be using them to drive their kids to the doctors office to get vaccinated.

Sometimes facts take a "back seat".

RT

 

[EinSV]

You are right, and the people who still insist on manually driving their cars while texting on their phones won't be using them to drive their kids to the doctors office to get vaccinated.

Sometimes facts take a "back seat".

RT

Fair enough, but let's add some facts anyway.

"Unintentional injuries" -- primarily automobile accidents -- are the leading cause of death in the US for every single age group between the ages of 1 and 44. http://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_age_group_2014_1050w760h.gif

The dramatic reduction in serious injuries and death caused by car accidents that AP promises is a very, very big deal. And I agree with @Canuck that ultimately the facts do matter.

 

[techmaven]

Fear is a powerful motivator, and I could imaging gory accident photos getting captions like "Share if you don't want to be killed like this. Ban robo-cars!" on Facebook. All the factual arguments in the world won't dislodge a scary meme once it gets implanted.

Yes. Absolutely. And the fear and deaths that resulted from the Chrysler Auto-Pilot in the 1950's has meant that cruise control, once billed as "one of the greatest automobile inventions ever developed", has never caught on with automobile purchasers and died a disappointing death after calls for banning it.

 

[RubberToe]

Yes. Absolutely. And the fear and deaths that resulted from the Chrysler Auto-Pilot in the 1950's has meant that cruise control, once billed as "one of the greatest automobile inventions ever developed", has never caught on with automobile purchasers and died a disappointing death after calls for banning it.

1958 Imperial Auto Pilot:

1958 Imperial Auto Pilot Article

Warning: This is not easy to explain to women!

RT

P.S. It says that in the review, I have never driven said vehicle or tried explaining any such concept to Mrs. Toe

 

[Canuck]

We laugh at this now but there's no doubt our children will be laughing at us when it comes to our AP.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[RubberToe]

1958 Imperial Auto Pilot:

1958 Imperial Auto Pilot Article

Warning: This is not easy to explain to women!

RT

P.S. It says that in the review, I have never driven said vehicle or tried explaining any such concept to Mrs. Toe

So I actually just read that Popular Science article I linked to that was written in 1958. I swear to God, that the level of detail and the analysis of the hardware, and the testing involved are absolutely on par with the stuff being discussed 58 years later right here. Back to your regular programming...

I'll bet you Elon's grandpa took him for a ride in one of those on the way to a Mercury launch and the rest is history....

RT

 

[theboom1]

You are right, and the people who still insist on manually driving their cars while texting on their phones won't be using them to drive their kids to the doctors office to get vaccinated.

Sometimes facts take a "back seat".

RT

If you text and drive and something happens, you deserve what happens to you. I am of the group that believes that if you are an idiot you will pay the consequences, whatever they may be.

 

[theboom1]

Why do some of you act like fully autonomous cars are the only solutions to deaths? There are other solutions and to say otherwise is foolish.

 

[ohmman]

If you text and drive and something happens, you deserve what happens to you. I am of the group that believes that if you are an idiot you will pay the consequences, whatever they may be.

Whatever they may be, eh?

If you text and drive and run over a child and kill them, you deserve what happens to you. But what about the kid?

I'm of the group that believes we live in a society, and seemingly individual actions nearly always have some impact on the rest of our society. Eat poorly, get sick? We all pay, either when you're aging and Medicare cares for you, or if you're at the poverty level and Medicaid pays for you, or if you're insured and everyone's higher premiums pay for you.

Thanks to your staunch opposition to autonomy, I'm starting to warm up to the idea. I might even change my mind and begin to support a full ban on all steering wheels.

 

[LastGas]

While we're on the topic of scare mongering, check out this article: Tesla's Autopilot Kills Again. This is about the crash in the Netherlands where Autopilot was not on. Or was it? [Cue ominous music]

 

[Vitold]

I start with the Tesla crash in Florida and the huge amount of publicity it got. Some people will have an immediate gut reaction and say "I'll never trust my life to a self-driving car." But fast forward a few years when a car with some level of autonomy becomes more common and instead of 1 fatality, there are 10 or 100. Some people will say "I don't want a self-driving car on the road with me."

Fear is a powerful motivator, and I could imaging gory accident photos getting captions like "Share if you don't want to be killed like this. Ban robo-cars!" on Facebook. All the factual arguments in the world won't dislodge a scary meme once it gets implanted.

Don't underestimate power that insurance companies have. Do you think that "hands free" driving was public's idea?

 

[theboom1]

Whatever they may be, eh?

If you text and drive and run over a child and kill them, you deserve what happens to you. But what about the kid?

I'm of the group that believes we live in a society, and seemingly individual actions nearly always have some impact on the rest of our society. Eat poorly, get sick? We all pay, either when you're aging and Medicare cares for you, or if you're at the poverty level and Medicaid pays for you, or if you're insured and everyone's higher premiums pay for you.

Thanks to your staunch opposition to autonomy, I'm starting to warm up to the idea. I might even change my mind and begin to support a full ban on all steering wheels.

So because I oppose it, you want it now? ok. I don't think it will happen because their are alternate solutions, and there will be enough opposition to the ban that a compromise will have to happen.

 

[bxr140]

Why do some of you act like fully autonomous cars are the only solutions to deaths? There are other solutions and to say otherwise is foolish.

Sure, but to suggest other solutions will be anywhere near as effective in reducing accidents (and deaths) is even more foolish.

The most important thing that autonomy brings is consistency, in this case consistency in vehicle operation. Consistency is the most effective way to minimize anomalies. Anomalies are why people die in cars.

 

[theboom1]

Sure, but to suggest other solutions will be anywhere near as effective in reducing accidents (and deaths) is even more foolish.

The most important thing that autonomy brings is consistency, in this case consistency in vehicle operation. Consistency is the most effective way to minimize anomalies. Anomalies are why people die in cars.

It most definitely is not. If it is using the exact same system and just taking in input from a driver and checking it, then it is at the EXACT same safety level.

and I thought you were open to it so the the people that "want" to drive can?

 

[EinSV]

Why do some of you act like fully autonomous cars are the only solutions to deaths? There are other solutions and to say otherwise is foolish.

I am not sure if you are referring to my earlier post, but I was discussing lives that could be saved with v.8.0 Autopilot and comparable systems, not full autonomy.

 

[dhanson865]

I start with the Tesla crash in Florida and the huge amount of publicity it got. Some people will have an immediate gut reaction and say "I'll never trust my life to a self-driving car." But fast forward a few years when a car with some level of autonomy becomes more common and instead of 1 fatality, there are 10 or 100. Some people will say "I don't want a self-driving car on the road with me."

Fear is a powerful motivator, and I could imaging gory accident photos getting captions like "Share if you don't want to be killed like this. Ban robo-cars!" on Facebook. All the factual arguments in the world won't dislodge a scary meme once it gets implanted.

Sure just like idiots said you'd suffocate driving a car over 12 mph back in the early 1900s before cars had windshields. There will always be idiots.

 

[LastGas]

Don't underestimate power that insurance companies have. Do you think that "hands free" driving was public's idea?

I don't know about the power of insurance, but I know a LOT about idiots on the Internet passing around crazy stories.

 

[bxr140]

It most definitely is not. If it is using the exact same system and just taking in input from a driver and checking it, then it is at the EXACT same safety level.

I'm not sure you understand the concept of an autonomous shadow mode. It doesn't just check and stop there. If it needs to override, it does.

Ergo, safer.