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Really Really on the fence . . .

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by RollinMS, Jan 1, 2017.

  1. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    Hey all, been reading a lot lately at all the good and bad press. Just can't quite get the balls to pull the trigger.

    Here is my situation, Not quite as willing to spend the big bucks as most of you are. I've been driving a Lexus GS350 for a while. For a $40k car it felt and drove great. Obviously the S is not quite as comfortable but with the next gen seats its getting close. I'm currently looking at making a move on a S60. I'm trying to keep costs low. I've read a couple threads on how to keep things down. From my perspective to spend $70,000 on a car it must absolutely do everything as advertised, or at least be able to do so sooner rather than later. For me that means, Summon on AP2 in a tight garage, EAP, FSD on the horizon. My commute is about 50 miles each way of which 45 of that is Interstate. I plan on using the hell out of EAP when it hits AP1 ability.

    Anyway, I thought I was all but out when they ended free Super Charging for Jan 1, I know it's not a huge value but again to me I need EVERY thing I can get to justify the cost. Without the auto driving capability this feels like a $40,000 car to me at best. EV adds value to me as well as FSD. The question is, is it really worth the gamble? It would be one thing if there was a $10,000 discount right now for all of those taking the "leap of faith" that EAP and FSD will work at some point. But at the current cost we are paying the price as if its 100% for sure happening.

    Basically what I'm getting to is: What is your gut feeling about Elon's ability to deliver? Do you guys really think FSD will happen soon? What are the odds that they release AP2, do some extensive testing, and the regulators say . . . 8 cameras? We'll approve if you add a 9th. Something that is not software related. Screw the $3,000 FSD upgrade, I'm driving a car that feels really OK, but not great and no longer has one of its major redeeming qualities. I work for a fellow Silicon Valley software company, I'm not used to press releases without 100% confidence on an impending release. Think hearing about the Iphone 8 with all the cool new features that you won't be able to get for another year at best.
     
  2. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    im confident in the new machine learning to allow them to release features quicker than they were able to with mobile eye.

    my initial estimate was that we'd start to see FSD features released in February but since they haven't finished AP1 parity I'm thinking maybe more like April.

    you can save another $1000 using my referral in my signature.

    also they extended the unlimited super r charging until January 15th
     
  3. Nosken

    Nosken Member

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    Until you get a Tesla, it it's really hard to fathom the different feeling you get when driving a Tesla. It is the "Tesla Grin"

    I loved my previous car, but, mainly because of the safety, and after I read the following post, and finally decided to make the jump.
    I ordered two years ago on Christmas, and the last 22 months with my car has been the greatest!
    This is why you shouldn't wait. Why you should not wait to buy | Tesla Motors
     
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  4. thimel

    thimel Member

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    I think a Tesla is a great car even without FSD. Much of the price goes towards it being an EV which both gives great performance and allows for use of sustainable energy. If you will be disappointed if FSD is not available in a year, then I would tell you not to buy it. Personally, I find the AP1 that I have to be great and I'm not tempted to upgrade. But we each have our own priorities.
     
  5. Andyw2100

    Andyw2100 Supporting Member

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    The AP featured in AP1 are great. The features that will be added with AP@ are, I'm sure, a whole lot better. Bit I agree that if you're dead set on Full Self-Driving, you may want to hold off a while, until it is more clear that it is really going to happen, and happen with the AP2 hardware.
     
  6. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    My local dealer actually gave me one the other day to take home. It was an AP1 P85D with Insane. No doubt it was nice and very fast. I had to try not to get used to it. I don't know if it was overly "luxurious" but had some really cool stuff. At least on that model Summon was less than impressive. I was able to make it creep forward and backward but it failed to be creative what so ever. I tried as many different scenarios as I could. Pulled it into a 3 car garage set garbage cans around it about 12" from each mirror. It would pull straight out and gladly run into my '64 Impala convertible (usual garage occupant) had I not hit the button. There was no adjusting what so ever. When I politely asked it to just pull right back to where it came from, it refused like my 9 year old being asked to put down his xbox controller.

    When you say we should see some FSD features in April what would you think that means? Some red light/Stop sign recognition or are we still just hoping for auto lane changing? I totally get the whole early adopter thing, I'm just afraid the AP2 model could be a complete throw away in that Tesla's eyes were bigger than its pocketbook.
     
  7. azred

    azred Member

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    If this feels like what you describe at best a $40k car without autopilot, it's the wrong car for you. Even with tax breaks you will likely be way over $70k after purchasing autopilot and that feature is hardly worth $30k+.
     
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  8. Gwgan

    Gwgan Almost a wagon

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    I have every confidence the team can deliver on promised features, but no expectation that it would be available for the car you buy today. Regulators will have a lot to say about whether or not you could actually be allowed to use some promised features. To help avoid feeling like you've wasted some money on potential features but still get that Tesla grin, buy a lightly used or CPO now; you can always upgrade if/when a more suitable car is released.
     
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  9. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    That's kinda the point. Let's say $40-$50k. All electric adds $10k for cost, environmental impact, performance, Free charging is worth something. The safety features add, when it comes down to it a 75% FSD car and I sleep at night with a ~$75k car. I mean for those of you driving one, what are you comparing comfort to? Go sit in a Lexus or similar Luxury brand, its not even close. I hate to say it but I don't know from a comfort level its even on par with Cadillac, which underwhelms. If the seats were crazy comfortable this would be a no brainer. I'd gladly be buying a P90D and laughing my way all the way to the quarter mile finish line. It would be worth every penny.
     
  10. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    based on the presentation of the nvidia px2 at CES regarding what it is capable of and how quickly it can be trained, as well as the video tesla has released demonstrating FSD; im expecting non highway autopilot with stop sign and stop light recognition. maybe even a better summon and auto park things like that.

    i do not expect that you will be able to summon your car from your office to meet you at the door, or that you can send it off to work like uber until probably late 2018 but most things that can be done with a driver in the seat I expect will be delivered in 2017.
     
  11. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    I actually thought a lot about that. In the end I just have a hard time buying AP1 with AP2 feature parity so close. From an economic perspective I worry about depreciation on the CPO car as I roll into the new for 2018-19.
    Which just comes back to the beginning. Obviously none of us can predict the future or, aside from a few hours of reading, know much more than what's been said. I guess I was just looking for someone to say something like "Look at Musk's track record. He delivers on everything" or "If FSD it a deal breaker to you move on, its not gonna happen soon" Which kinda seems to be the prevailing opinion.

    I mean I'm looking at an S60, on the low end it should hold its value pretty well when equipped with AP2. Unless of course AP2 is a bust.
     
  12. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    This may be an unpopular opinion, but if you are worried about depreciation, historically, Tesla's have been updating so often that the latest and greatest turns into "old" very quickly. AP 1 was introduced late 2014, (but wasn't actually released until much later). Now we are at the end of 2016 and AP 2 has been released, so only a two year cycle. I'll bet we will be talking AP 3 in 2018.
     
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  13. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Remember you can get the S60 without spending anything for activating AP2.0. BUT you will have the hardware, so when it becomes fully functional you can add that feature later for 6k (I think). If FSD works out, you can add it for 4k...

    We priced out our S70D based on hardware: got the premium package so we could get the power lift-gate at that time. We purchased it with AP1.0 just as it was being released. Now extremely happy with AP1.0. Given all the extra hardware AP2.0 has and our experiences with AP1.0, AP2.0 will certainly not be a bust. But if you want to hedge your bet, don't purchase the software...
     
  14. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    Yeah, I get that. But in my mind the $4k for the FSD is merely a formality. The majority of the cost for that capability is already baked into the car. If I was able to come out with an AP2 car, even without those options added and still be in the $70's after tax rebate and EAP and FSD don't pan out I would be extremely let down. On the other hand I can see AP2 working well for my interstate travel. Which will be a huge win. I don't necessarily need it to change lanes and such but I'll take it. Like the thread says, Really Really on the fence.

    I mean for the rest of the community, what was promised for AP that didn't get delivered? It appears that AP seems to work as advertised. I wouldn't be disappointed in that I got exactly what I planned. But if I was told AP1 would do FSD and then find out that its not possible I would lose my SH!T. Do you think if there are minor adjustments Tesla would pick up those costs? Maybe an additional radar/lidar. Some other minor change?
     
  15. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    That's exactly what I'm worried about. Now if AP3 comes out and it plans to offer some new feature like drive through the grocery store and grab dinner then I wouldn't be upset that my AP2 car can't hang. But if in December 2017 Elon tweets " Turns out FSD needs AP3, sorry to all the AP2 buyers. Enjoy your feature parity with AP1. Here is a link to $1,000 discount on your Model S with AP3" You would be fishing my S out of the Gulf of Mexico. . . . Just kidding USAA, I would never consider insurance fraud.
     
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  16. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    I can't even imagine how people with AP1 felt when AP2 was announced but i do know for a fact that they are not done adding features to it or finished improving it. they will continue to get new features just like they have been for 2 years.

    Despite all the rhetoric about what tesla will and will not deliver, one thing is true; tesla is a pioneer and nothing really compares to it, that in and of itself should alleviate some of your fears.

    in other words, I know that it's scary taking the plunge but once you're driving it, you will not be sorry.

    i went fairly low end on my purchase too and I couldn't be happier, I drive to the farthest coffee shop from me daily just for an excuse to drive.
     
  17. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Unlikely Tesla will add hardware. Another TMC poster mod'ed his wife's MS with Autopilot hardware which took a lot of time and effort. He did it as a labor of love, but basically it would have been REALLY expensive to do.

    Unlikely Regulators will force Tesla to add hardware, as Tesla is the tip of the spear for Auto-pilot mileage data. IIRC they have more mileage data in 1-2 years than Google has in what, like 5-10 years? Most likely the Regulators will work with Tesla to establish FSD guidelines and rules.

    But as @Gregkeys pointed out it's a risk.

    That being said, our experience with AP1.0 has been great, and IMHO AP2.0 will be excellent.

    Good luck!
     
  18. Watts Son

    Watts Son Member

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    There's NO WAY in my opinion, they'd invest a bunch of cash in AP2, piss off a bunch of loyal AP1 people, make videos of the car dropping you off and parking itself, describing how it can change lanes etc and then dump it or not make it SIGNIFICANTLY better than AP1.The car will perform as advertised, I don't think the AP1 people were ever promised FSD. You can enjoy the car now or hang on the fence and read rumors about what's to come. Do you own an iPhone 7 ? The difference with Apple is there is a well established rumor mill where we can already see pretty well what the next iteration will be. Apple needs to change it up because people want a new phone every couple of years, Tesla just trying to be way out ahead of any future competition. Right now demand exceeds supply and will for while world wide. Why would Tesla build AP2 if they thought AP3 would be necessary ? They could have kept selling cars non stop with AP1 and jumped to 10 cameras or whatever.
     
  19. RollinMS

    RollinMS Member

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    I see where you are coming from. I guess its less that I think Tesla would purposely under deliver as much as I am concerned that the fed will overly scrutinize. I believe that when Elon says he thinks AP2 has the ability to enable FSD that he really believes it. Hell I even trust he's right in that it can do it as advertised. Its the gov that I'm more worried about and subsequently Tesla's response to said restrictions. I mean I think you are are spot on about the AP2 approach. No way its gonna be total crap. I feel like I am watching a real time negotiation between Musk and the Regulators. Musk relents to limiting autosteer to the Speed Limit in exchange for favorable opinions around FSD. Then a video of a Tesla avoiding an accident comes out, Elon jumps out of his chair "See! I told you it was safer!" Then a Model X drives through its Living room and the regulators just shake their heads, mumble something under their breaths and scribble down something on their pads. It will be a back and forth struggle no doubt. If I was putting $60k up for what currently exists with a potential of more I;m happy. I just haven't convinced myself that I want to throw $75k worth of chips into the pot (I'm getting good at these metaphors) hoping at best for a draw giving me the features I already bought. Again, I'm not saying I'm out, and I'm not exactly mortgaging the house to pay for it. Its just in my head I put values on things and I get stuck there. My inner CTO is negotiating with my CEO and my CFO to vote on whether to take the plunge or not. I know its a cool car, its quick, when equipped. But is it $75k risk cool?
     
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  20. ggnykk

    ggnykk Active Member

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    If you want to keep costs low, S60 (single motor version) is really the way to go. S60 and S60D are the only Tesla models that has usable battery capacity that is more than it advertised (in other words, more than 60 kwh). You can also charge it to 100% all the time because it is actually a software limited 75 battery. Battery degradation wouldn't be a concern for 60 battery either. Also, don't get the dual motor if you want to save money. If you live in a snowy area, you are better off to get a set of 4 winter tires. Pretty sure it would be cheaper than 5000 bucks for the D.

    If you worry about Tesla not delivering on the full self driving (FSD) feature, OR the regulations somehow block it/delay it, you can always just pay for the Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) features for $5000 now. EAP doesn't need regulatory approval. You can always pay the extra $4000 later on for FSD in the future.

    Also, don't forget to get a charger for your Tesla at home. You pretty much would get "full tank of gas" as you leave home every morning. Significantly improve your ownership experiences as opposed to people who only rely on superchargers for everyday charging.
     
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