SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
If I’m not mistaken – and I don’t think I am – BMW will release an all-electric version of the i3 simultaneously to the release of the hybrid version. So you’ll only have to wait some six months or so…
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Citizen-T
Active Member
Oh, I agree with this. I'm watching for any sign of production bottlenecks at all. Elon said he has a plan, and I trust him for now, but I want to see evidence that they are going to be able to get enough batteries to do GenIII sooner rather than later. Being supply constrained is great as long as increasing supply is an option. When you are supply constrained and you can't do anything about it, then you stall, and your stock tumbles.
What you have to remember with TSLA and most auto companies, is that Europe is only one piece of the pie, North America and China both being the largest slices. If things go poorly in China, then that might be a reason to start worrying about demand. There is a somewhat reasonable reason to short TSLA, but it doesn't have much to do with TSLA. The price is so inflated right now, that if the overall market tanks in a big way for whatever reason, then TSLA will likely get pulled down with it to some degree. Otherwise, there are few companies out there (auto industry or not) that are executing with the competence of Tesla/Musk, from a managerial standpoint they are pretty close to walking on water, it very very rare to see a public company being run so well.
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Norse
Active Member
I'm not sure where you get the 15cts/kWh for California. The pricing is a lot more complicated than that. For most customers the price is more likely 35cts/kWh, however the new schedule EV does allow for 10cts/kWh if you sign up for it and charge your EV at night (daytime power becomes 37cts/kWh).
It mostly comes down (unsurprisingly) to the fact that EVs are more popular where the government encourages them with incentives.
The base model i3 is all-electric. The "hybrid" comes with you pay for the range extender option and they put a small gasoline/petrol engine beside the electric motor that you can fill up with gas/petrol. (If you don't choose this option, that "engine block space" is just wasted - it's a blank empty space inside the chassis reserved for that range extending gasoline/petrol engine and you can't use it or put anything there.
Citizen-T
Active Member
If you are going to short TSLA, the trick is to keep it short. There are plenty of 1 day or 1 week periods that would have made spectacular shorts. Anyone that has attempted to hold a short waiting for the "big crash" has had their face ripped off.
I have a feeling this thread started too early. Word has not gotten around to Europe yet because it hasn't been Tesla's main focus (with the exception of Norway). Yes the larger size of the Model S makes it less attractive for the mainstream European market, but E Classes, 5 Series, A6's, and up have been very attractive over there right? That's Tesla's target audience.
The Supercharger point is moot, it's not that there's no plan. It just takes time. People need to get rid of this notion that it has to happen tomorrow. To do it right it takes planning and to do it efficiently and get the most out of one's resources it takes patience.
From what I hear gas in Europe is super expensive (even more in some parts) not sure where you are getting electric is more expensive.
ZEV credits are irrelevant. I've always regarded them as a cherry on top of the sundae, it is continually stated goal is 25% GM ex ZEV credits.
Mobile plans from what I gather is actually very cheap in Europe and everything is bundled. So I'm not to sure how this is a knock on the car.
With that said, the MAIN problem for Tesla is in their supply chain. I said it in other threads and I'll say it here, Tesla needs to figure out what's going on with it's third party suppliers. Is it an issue of lack of good faith in producing enough parts? Are they really struggling? Can Tesla engineers help them work out the kinks and get more efficient? This is the main issue for Tesla.
The Supercharger point is moot, it's not that there's no plan. It just takes time. People need to get rid of this notion that it has to happen tomorrow. To do it right it takes planning and to do it efficiently and get the most out of one's resources it takes patience.
From what I hear gas in Europe is super expensive (even more in some parts) not sure where you are getting electric is more expensive.
ZEV credits are irrelevant. I've always regarded them as a cherry on top of the sundae, it is continually stated goal is 25% GM ex ZEV credits.
Mobile plans from what I gather is actually very cheap in Europe and everything is bundled. So I'm not to sure how this is a knock on the car.
With that said, the MAIN problem for Tesla is in their supply chain. I said it in other threads and I'll say it here, Tesla needs to figure out what's going on with it's third party suppliers. Is it an issue of lack of good faith in producing enough parts? Are they really struggling? Can Tesla engineers help them work out the kinks and get more efficient? This is the main issue for Tesla.
A few small steps to improve sales in the EU:
-Set up a referral system. Tesla-awareness is still very low but can grow exponentially with word of mouth. Even if you are simply sent a coffee mug every time you book a friend to test drive, or something much more refined.
-Perhaps focus a bit more on the car being built in "California", not "USA". US-made cars are perceived as crappy by many here.
-Elon Musk Europe Tour 2013
-Get a better PR firm that can create awareness that the Model S is here and real, not just another conceptual pressrelease-car like all these Real Soon-hydrogen cars that we read about in the papers.
-Set up a referral system. Tesla-awareness is still very low but can grow exponentially with word of mouth. Even if you are simply sent a coffee mug every time you book a friend to test drive, or something much more refined.
-Perhaps focus a bit more on the car being built in "California", not "USA". US-made cars are perceived as crappy by many here.
-Elon Musk Europe Tour 2013
-Get a better PR firm that can create awareness that the Model S is here and real, not just another conceptual pressrelease-car like all these Real Soon-hydrogen cars that we read about in the papers.
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marvinat0rz
Member
There are many reasons why Tesla may not do well. Most of them sound pretty far-fetched at this point. My biggest worry right now is that the stock is overpriced and that Tesla won't be able to increase production and sales as much as they have forecast. Other possibilities:
-Elon Musk dies in an accident. New CEO is unable to follow up on disruptive vision (Tim Cook, I'm looking at you).
-Temporary setback for Tesla (or global stock market crash) thrashes Tesla's stock market value. Goldman Sachs gives Elon Musk a margin call, followed by a hostile takeover by established auto industry. New majority owner slowly butchers the company by purposeful incompetence.
-A massive US recession which starts right now and kills Tesla's luxury car sales in the crucial ~5-year period until G3 launch. Tesla runs out of cash and is unable to raise more, going bankrupt and getting sold for parts.
-Global battery development stalls, and it turns out it will be impossible to create a cheap car with >200 mile range. Or it becomes impossible to create any electric car with considerably greater range than 200 miles. Similar worry for quick charging.
-The premise of electric cars was erroneous. In spite of what we've seen already, electric cars will never be a disruptive force in the auto industry. They will remain a niche product, inferior to gasoline cars.
-Multiple car companies realize that electric cars are about to become a disruptive threat, and are able to leverage advances in battery technology and scale production faster than Tesla. Tesla is still successful, but only gets a small pie of the global electric car market. Tesla essentially remains a luxury carmaker. Stock price falls to $40, a decent P/E multiple in this new world.
-Global event that would leave you ****ed regardless. E.g. a large, global war which derails Tesla's supply chain and makes everyone think about other things than buying a car. Tesla runs out of cash and goes bankrupt.
-Black Swan event: An "unknown unknown" that somehow derails Tesla's plans.
None of these scenarios seem very plausible to me. I would love if someone could come up with better (worse) ideas. The thing is, and this is also what you can see from this thread, at the moment it seems exceedingly likely that Tesla will succeed. It becomes harder and harder to envision a scenario where Tesla will be unable to scale up and become a major carmaker. This, in addition to the disruptive potential of electric cars, is an explosive combination. Maybe most people won't want to drive a gasoline car in 15 years? The first-mover advantage would mean getting way beyond a $150 share price if this scenario unfolds. But I still think that $150 seems like a decent risk-adjusted stock price for now. Tesla is still a speculative growth stock.
I think that this is the time to be cautious. When no one can see what could possibly go wrong is the time that stuff usually starts going wrong.
-Elon Musk dies in an accident. New CEO is unable to follow up on disruptive vision (Tim Cook, I'm looking at you).
-Temporary setback for Tesla (or global stock market crash) thrashes Tesla's stock market value. Goldman Sachs gives Elon Musk a margin call, followed by a hostile takeover by established auto industry. New majority owner slowly butchers the company by purposeful incompetence.
-A massive US recession which starts right now and kills Tesla's luxury car sales in the crucial ~5-year period until G3 launch. Tesla runs out of cash and is unable to raise more, going bankrupt and getting sold for parts.
-Global battery development stalls, and it turns out it will be impossible to create a cheap car with >200 mile range. Or it becomes impossible to create any electric car with considerably greater range than 200 miles. Similar worry for quick charging.
-The premise of electric cars was erroneous. In spite of what we've seen already, electric cars will never be a disruptive force in the auto industry. They will remain a niche product, inferior to gasoline cars.
-Multiple car companies realize that electric cars are about to become a disruptive threat, and are able to leverage advances in battery technology and scale production faster than Tesla. Tesla is still successful, but only gets a small pie of the global electric car market. Tesla essentially remains a luxury carmaker. Stock price falls to $40, a decent P/E multiple in this new world.
-Global event that would leave you ****ed regardless. E.g. a large, global war which derails Tesla's supply chain and makes everyone think about other things than buying a car. Tesla runs out of cash and goes bankrupt.
-Black Swan event: An "unknown unknown" that somehow derails Tesla's plans.
None of these scenarios seem very plausible to me. I would love if someone could come up with better (worse) ideas. The thing is, and this is also what you can see from this thread, at the moment it seems exceedingly likely that Tesla will succeed. It becomes harder and harder to envision a scenario where Tesla will be unable to scale up and become a major carmaker. This, in addition to the disruptive potential of electric cars, is an explosive combination. Maybe most people won't want to drive a gasoline car in 15 years? The first-mover advantage would mean getting way beyond a $150 share price if this scenario unfolds. But I still think that $150 seems like a decent risk-adjusted stock price for now. Tesla is still a speculative growth stock.
I think that this is the time to be cautious. When no one can see what could possibly go wrong is the time that stuff usually starts going wrong.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
If it was me and I could swing it, I’d of course get a Tesla right this minute! Either a Roadster or a Silver debadged 85 with 19’’ Aero Wheels, Black Standard Leather Seats, Piano Black, Matte Obeche, Carbon Fiber or a custom dark gunmetal brushed aluminum dash decor with Tesla’s upcoming Drop-In Center Console, Tech Package, Parking Sensors, Fog Lamps, Hi-Fi Sound, Extended Leather Trim, Interior Lighting, Winter Package, Parcel Shelf and Michelin Primacy Tires. I would also want the metal pedals, so I would try really hard to get those as well if they for some reason aren’t standard with the 85. Ideally I’d also want the metal inserts in the trunk and frunk openings, but those seem to no longer be available even for the P85+’s…
In the best of first-world-problem-free worlds it would also be possible to get the car with a black headliner made out of as much natural fiber as possible, but that currently does not seem to be possible…
And finally* …I’d find a reputable machine shop and have them make a custom dark gunmetal aluminum cargo barrier for the trunk (to make an idiot proof seal between the trunk and the cabin), and consequently have them adjust the parcel shelf accordingly.
Oh right, and I almost forgot… I’d also obviously of course want a factory mounted hitch option, but… oh, well.
BUT apparently MarkR’s wife insists on an electric BMW… (It’s just as hard for me to grasp as well…)
*Body colored Carbon Fiber hood and roof would also be neat. As would a Carbon Fiber parcel shelf... But one of those retractable cargo covers that come standard with any European Sports Wagon would suffice. Oh, and speaking of… A Model S Sports Wagon! Now that would be cool!
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wcalvin
Member
"Compared to what?"
"Compared to what?" ought to be the motto here as well. A lot of those possibilities apply equally well to other growth stocks. One addresses such considerations via your ratio of stocks to bonds&cash, not via growth stock choices.
And "Compared to what?" applies to other cars. For now the Model S competes with Mercedes and BMW and Lexus in the European market. You don't take any of them to places where there is no parking space or maneuvering room for their width; you take your Mini-Cooper to Elba instead.
Big thing to remember about Europe: they (and California) were the only places that took clean energy seriously after the 1970s exposure to the oil producers' stranglehold tactics. They (and CA) have held their energy consumption per capita constant since 1980 while the rest of the US doubled. Europeans are, in general, a lot better informed about the world than is the US. They take their scientists seriously and do a much better job of planning ahead. (Also, my books sell better there than in the US!)
Real penetration of the middle-class car market isn't soon, either here or there. But Tesla has stolen a march on the traditional car manufacturers and by the end of this year, most of potential luxury-car buyers will know all about those five-star and best-ever ratings. Tesla will not need to advertise.
"Compared to what?" ought to be the motto here as well. A lot of those possibilities apply equally well to other growth stocks. One addresses such considerations via your ratio of stocks to bonds&cash, not via growth stock choices.
And "Compared to what?" applies to other cars. For now the Model S competes with Mercedes and BMW and Lexus in the European market. You don't take any of them to places where there is no parking space or maneuvering room for their width; you take your Mini-Cooper to Elba instead.
Big thing to remember about Europe: they (and California) were the only places that took clean energy seriously after the 1970s exposure to the oil producers' stranglehold tactics. They (and CA) have held their energy consumption per capita constant since 1980 while the rest of the US doubled. Europeans are, in general, a lot better informed about the world than is the US. They take their scientists seriously and do a much better job of planning ahead. (Also, my books sell better there than in the US!)
Real penetration of the middle-class car market isn't soon, either here or there. But Tesla has stolen a march on the traditional car manufacturers and by the end of this year, most of potential luxury-car buyers will know all about those five-star and best-ever ratings. Tesla will not need to advertise.
Got it off here : http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a
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That's a fine sales pitch for the daring early uptakers. Once you've sold your cars to them, you are looking at more conventional folks who are just going to say : well then come back to me when it's ready and let's see if I am still in the market.
See my numbers earlier in this thread. Gas is super expensive, it just turns out that electricity is even more super expensiver. (Triple the prices instead of merely double the prices). The issue is that gas is only double as expensive due to added taxes but electricity has the added taxes AND has the added fees to pay for the renewable energy investments.
That's only true if you stay in the country, as soon as you are roaming it's going to be at addidional costs.
Thanks I need to research this more.
marvinat0rz
Member
Here's another reason Tesla could do worse than projected: Margins could end up getting squeezed. Even if Tesla is able to scale up production and hit the gross margin targets initially, competent competitors could create cars with an equally strong margin. The result would be price competition, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. It would mean cheaper cars. But it would also mean less profit for Tesla shareholders.
As I've said before, I'm still long. But it's necessary to consider stuff that could go wrong even if you're an optimist.
As I've said before, I'm still long. But it's necessary to consider stuff that could go wrong even if you're an optimist.
Looking at the ratio of electricity cost per mile over gas cost per mile can lead to an incorrect conclusion. It would be better to look at the difference between the two.
For example if it costs $0.01/mile foe electricity, and $0.05/mile for gas or diesel in the US, then electricity is 1/5 the cost of gas. Your savings are the difference between the two, and you save $0.04/mile.
Compare to a European example of $0.05/mile for electricity, and $0.10/mile for gas or diesel. Electricity is only 1/2 the cost of gas. Not as good as 1/5th, right? Not Exactly. The difference is $0.05/mile, so your savings are greater in Europe.
GSP
For example if it costs $0.01/mile foe electricity, and $0.05/mile for gas or diesel in the US, then electricity is 1/5 the cost of gas. Your savings are the difference between the two, and you save $0.04/mile.
Compare to a European example of $0.05/mile for electricity, and $0.10/mile for gas or diesel. Electricity is only 1/2 the cost of gas. Not as good as 1/5th, right? Not Exactly. The difference is $0.05/mile, so your savings are greater in Europe.
GSP
Just like Chevy can make a Corvette and squeeze Porsche's margins. Or Google can make a cheaper tablet and squeeze Apple's margins.
I don't really see this as a risk any time soon (over the next decade).
Good post.
We can probably take out the battery supply issue now given the news from Panasonic this morning. This was my single biggest worry (other than a major market correction) and is now obsolete, yay!
marvinat0rz
Member
Thanks, TSLAopt. As long as manufacturers are as willing to expand as Panasonic, there won't be a cell supply problem. It's great to hear that they also got a good profit margin on the cells, this should convince other manufacturers that battery cells production is a good idea to invest in. This is great news.
I'm really just devil's advocating here. The more unlikely my doomsday scenarios seem, the better. Just makes me a bit worried when the "reasons Tesla may not do well" thread contains almost 100% bullish ideas. Be afraid when everyone is optimistic, etc. Thankfully the Tesla shorts haven't shut up yet, which I take as a good sign.
I'm really just devil's advocating here. The more unlikely my doomsday scenarios seem, the better. Just makes me a bit worried when the "reasons Tesla may not do well" thread contains almost 100% bullish ideas. Be afraid when everyone is optimistic, etc. Thankfully the Tesla shorts haven't shut up yet, which I take as a good sign.
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