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Recent MYP Delivery Estimates

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Tonal looks cool for sure. I need more low impact cardio in my life. Hopefully the social aspect helps encourage me. I’m also an Apple guy so maybe I don’t fit in here with all the Pixel talk.🤣
Meh, I'm all in on Apple too, but I'm a nerdy-fanboy of technology in general (hence Tesla...). The Pixel 6 Pro looks cool, and the first Pixel in years that I'd want to mess around with.
 
I watched Tesla's 2021 Shareholder Meeting and remembered Elon saying something that I found interesting:

Twitter Question: Are we going to see 4680 battery cells this year in Texas?

Elon- “I don’t think we will see 4680 production in Texas this year. But we are making 4680s in California at a – our pilot plant, which is a big plant by normal standards. It’s like a capable of 10 gigawatt hours a year. So it’s just a mile away from our vehicle factory in Fremont. So it’s – that basically – that factory will be able to make more than enough cells for Giga Texas to scale production of Model Y…” He goes on to say, “We will start production this year, and we will deliver – comfortably deliver some cars from Giga Texas this year of Model Ys. But we won’t reach high-volume production until probably the end of next year. So – but then I also expect we will reach high level production, the 4680 cell here in Giga Texas next year as well.”

What do you guys take from this? If he is saying that they will start production and comfortably deliver cars from Giga Texas this year, could we presume those cells would also be delivered this year in Fremont? Also, what would be prioritized? A zillion orders of MYLR or less MYP where they can extend the LR in their flagship Model Y Performance?

Just me speculating as we patiently wait. :)
 
@Luka816 Yeah I find that statement very interesting. What I don’t think will happen is two different forms of the same trim being produced in different locations in 2021. More specifically I don’t think they’ll deliver the MYP with and also without the front casting, as an example, from Fremont and Austin simultaneously.

The possible plant shutdown and possible focus on LR over P at Fremont, if true, is noteworthy.

We are all now aware of several possible updates on the Model Y that should eventually happen. I cannot imagine Tesla would hold back on updates on what they believe is going to be the most popular-selling vehicle in the world by next year.

So my take is, any change will happen to all LR and/or all P at the same time. So if they have the castings now, I think they are already putting them in. If they stopped production it was probably for this reason. We won’t see the 4680 or air suspension this year imo.

One thing I wonder is what people were speculating before the Model Y refresh of double pane windows, refreshed console, and change from 77KWh to 82KWh. I think some of those changes were speculated just like we are doing now.

Should be interesting stuff. I think if we see a ton of P’s getting VINs there is a reasonable chance there has been some upgrade, while it may be small and not visible.
 
@Jbapckfan "One thing I wonder is what people were speculating before the Model Y refresh of double pane windows, refreshed console, and change from 77KWh to 82KWh. I think some of those changes were speculated just like we are doing now."

I hadn't thought of this. So was this announced by Tesla or suddenly found to be the case from people receiving their MY's? May have to do some digging.
 
Received some feedback that my order history may be of interest here.
-Ordered MYP (White/ black int. w/ tow) approx. 09/01, website said November which was the timeframe I was aiming for.
-Received VIN super quick, approx. 09/15 with delivery about 10 days later.
-Was surprised because I thought if anything it would push out. Was not ready and asked to hold.
-Order put on hold for 30 days.
-Order shows off hold approx 10/15.
-On 10/18 already receive new VIN.
-Not quite ready and also VIN is 21’, ask to hold again.
-Order is put on hold for 30 more days.
-Currently account shows on hold until 11/19.
 
Received some feedback that my order history may be of interest here.
-Ordered MYP (White/ black int. w/ tow) approx. 09/01, website said November which was the timeframe I was aiming for.
-Received VIN super quick, approx. 09/15 with delivery about 10 days later.
-Was surprised because I thought if anything it would push out. Was not ready and asked to hold.
-Order put on hold for 30 days.
-Order shows off hold approx 10/15.
-On 10/18 already receive new VIN.
-Not quite ready and also VIN is 21’, ask to hold again.
-Order is put on hold for 30 more days.
-Currently account shows on hold until 11/19.

Wow, that's the first I've heard of someone getting a MYP VIN that quickly.

I ordered Sept 22 and EDD holding steady at Nov 9 - Dec 9. I'm in Canada. I will delay it if it's not a 2022 model year.