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I the impact of drag on energy consumption has a squared relationship with speed so around town you would notice very little impact. motorway journeys will be exponentially worse. Sadly that is of course the sort of driving people are more likely to do with things on the roof. Not much need for 4 bikes on a trip to Tesco.I cannot answer for the roof box because I've not tried it with our Model S.
I can say that putting 4 x bikes on the roof results in a 33% loss of range even when speed is kept to 60MPH. And I know this because we took our car in this configuration around Northern France a couple of summers ago.
The practical effect of this is that you can't skip as many superchargers on your route as you would have otherwise. Since they all seem to be in hotel car parks close to areas of shopping, tourism or food, this is very little inconvenience at all
(In case you're wondering, the Aero roof bars alone have negligible effect on range - at most 2-3% - but I regretted leaving the 4 x bike racks mounted as, even without any bikes, I lost about 15% range at 70MPH as well as incurring a lot of noise).
I would expect a suitably aerodynamic roof box to be between 20-30% range loss based on these experiences.
450 wh/mi??? thats way more than 25-30%We quite regularly have 3 mountain bikes on the roof, with front wheels removed, depending on conditions it adds 25-30% around 70mph. If you are are in strong winds or rain expect the impact to be significantly more. That said, due to the drag vs speed if you drop down towards 60 it becomes much much better, add in an HGV or tall transit and its not too bad. If you use ABRP a setting of 450 seems to give a reasonable estimate that you can bet with some slipstreaming
Last summer on our first couple of long-range trips with our Motion XT Thule roof box on our M3, we didn't notice any significant hit on range at our normal cruising speed of 60mph on motorways.I would expect a suitably aerodynamic roof box to be between 20-30% range loss based on these experiences.