Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[BonB]

For those of you who wonder whether Plaid order gets priority and if so, by how much, I did a Bayesian modeling with MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) by using the data in the tracking spreadsheet. The report is attached. It's actually an open-end project required by my class, for which I selected modeling the delivery time for the refreshed Model X, since I'm a long-time diver in this forum. I did this project in a rush so please forgive me if you found errors or limitations. I know there must be a lot of them, plus the bias of the data itself.

Anyway, the conclusion is that Plaid order does get delivery earlier, as expected, but only by an average of 54 days, comparing to Long Range orders. The mean implied from the MCMC is 456 days (Long Range) vs 402 days (Plaid). However, as folks already mentioned earlier, the number of days saving is in a wide range.

I also did the same thing for FSD vs non-FSD orders, which I didn't put in the report. And the result, may be to some's surprise, is that no statistically difference is observed between FSD and non-FSD orders. So seems like adding FSD does not really help in getting the car earlier.

Hope this information is helpful for folks who are considering switching to Plaid or adding FSD in order to get the car sooner. The cutoff time of the information used from the spreadsheet is 4/22. Any newer information is not taken into consideration (I waited to get my project graded before posting it here). As Tesla ramps up the production, I would imagine the actual average delivery time should be less than the modeling results.

I'm more than happy to hear comments and suggestions, particularly for the modeling techniques, as I know it's a rather simple modeling application.

Wow very impressive project

 

[BonB]

Here are some pics. After going back and forth about it a few times, I switched from the matte lettering to the emblem.

Very good looking matte black/black Plaid X; Congrats!!

 

[Empty tank]

I rejected one is probably a really good one now. They've had time to correct any known issues.

Ment to say a rejected one not I rejected anything.

 

[EJCKR]

Canadian Update.

Ordered March 2021, 5 seater. LR.

Have a delivery date of May 28 at the Kitchener location!

Any other Canadiana here received their cars yet?

 

[FDEWEESE]

Makes me wonder how Tesla can still honor prices from over a year ago. Must be little profit in it.

I'm sure there is a nice profit margin. Keep in mind that Elon has stated that the current pricing is forecasting where margins will be in the future at the time of delivery. Basically, they are trying to guess what cost will be at the time of delivery - up to a year or more later. They have raised and lowered the price before, but I wouldn't expect a price decrease anytime soon! Too much demand and not enough MX's around.

 

[SD20]

Guessing he ordered a plaid. Those can come pretty quickly now.

Day 421 from plaid order. They don’t come very fast necessarily

 

[TrevTremaine]

Canadian Update.

Ordered March 2021, 5 seater. LR.

Have a delivery date of May 28 at the Kitchener location!

Any other Canadiana here received their cars yet?

There's been a few delivered in Canada. Oddly, I think they've been a mix of the 5 seaters and Plaids thus far.

 

[SantaFeJay]

Today is Day 464 since I ordered a MXLR 5 Seater, White w/ black interior. Sigh.

 

[jbrowdy]

Ohhhh Lawwwd, Lawwwddd, Lawwwdd, Lawwd. VINdication.
VINned last night at 10:29pm. EDD 5/09-13

Hopefully it won't get snatched away, out from my itty bitty little hands.
Now if DCU credit union can just let me slide on ordering the 2 weeks away replacement SS card.
Oh my. It's been a lot of days waiting...

Hopefully there are beginning to be a lot more VINs out there, maybe this is a good sign that we need. Ramping is now OVER!!

Congrats!!

 

[JER85]

Another small bit: I am seeing a battery drain of about 10 miles overnight. Sentry mode is turned off for Home. Anything else that can explain the drain?

1 - Turn off auto summon that drains battery because it’s always waiting for summon command

2 - automatic doors wastes battery because it’s always sensing if you walk up to the car

3 - and lastly……new Tesla owner syndrome (this one happened to me) as a first time Tesla owner you are constantly tinkering and checking the app which wakes up the car….. I thought there was something wrong with my car but once I stopped opening the app so much I now only lose like maybe 1 mile overnight…. If that.

 

[TheXFactor]

Just picked up 339639. No swivel screen. FYI

But everything else is pretty good. Delivery person said they won’t release any Model X without thorough inspection. She said I have 24 hours to report any issues and open a service request. Do you guys see any panel misalignments?

 

[ductordoc]

Just picked up 339639. No swivel screen. FYI

But everything else is pretty good. Delivery person said they won’t release any Model X without thorough inspection. She said I have 24 hours to report any issues and open a service request. Do you guys see any panel misalignments?

It’s a beauty! Where was your p/u point?

 

[TheXFactor]

Where was your p/u point?

Charlotte, NC

 

[Yosry]

Just picked up 339639. No swivel screen. FYI

But everything else is pretty good. Delivery person said they won’t release any Model X without thorough inspection. She said I have 24 hours to report any issues and open a service request. Do you guys see any panel misalignments?

Congratulation , wha is ur built date? I hear tilt screen after 4/15 built.

 

[ductordoc]

Charlotte, NC

Great to hear! we will pick up there when ours is ready. Home is Asheville.

 

[yq86]

I'd be interested to know, and others have commented, how long Cali orders deliver as opposed to the rest of the country. Or maybe by region?

I actually did the data analysis part for Cali vs others, as this was one of my potential targets. But unfortunately I didn't see any difference statistically by just looking at the data characteristics. So I didn't even continue to the modeling part.

 

[StrayTexel]

Just picked up 339639. No swivel screen. FYI

But everything else is pretty good. Delivery person said they won’t release any Model X without thorough inspection. She said I have 24 hours to report any issues and open a service request. Do you guys see any panel misalignments?

This build looks at least as-good as any other refreshed X I've seen. Congrats.

Hopefully there will be a retrofit for the screen.

 

[jbrowdy]

Guessing he ordered a plaid. Those can come pretty quickly now.

I ordered a plaid and have been waiting almost 1.5 years for it.

 

[BonB]

Just picked up 339639. No swivel screen. FYI

But everything else is pretty good. Delivery person said they won’t release any Model X without thorough inspection. She said I have 24 hours to report any issues and open a service request. Do you guys see any panel misalignments?

Enjoy the nice new ride!!

 

[lexus26]

Just picked up 339639. No swivel screen. FYI

But everything else is pretty good. Delivery person said they won’t release any Model X without thorough inspection. She said I have 24 hours to report any issues and open a service request. Do you guys see any panel misalignments?

It looks nothing less than gorgeous! Congrats!