Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

A lot of armies wore cheaper boots than that (UK and US) for a long time. Difference is they realised in the 90’s & started issueing better ones. The ones issued to UK known as “combat high” boots through the 80’s to early 90’s had a compressed cardboard unit fitted in the heal. We used to run in them a lot, most people with a forces background from that era have knackered knees because of them, my knees are pretty shot hence I no longer run for fitness. I’m preserving what’s left.

Indeed, those boots were terrible. We used to buy and use our own. And the "gym slippers" that were used for physical training wrecked a lot of people in basic training. A friend halved the medical failure rate in his unit for basic training simply by buying decent running "trainers" at the local store*. And this was after the Falklands where we were supposed to have learnt lessons !

(*from that statement a clever person can identify the unit )

 

[petit_bateau]

Looks like they are looking to provide 100 “Marder” light tanks though. It think the supplied equipment is shifting to a strategy that suggests this war may drag into a long one, and thus it's now time to supply equipment that Ukraine may use in the long run (and which NATO can more easily supply long term supplies for).
Scholz holds up German tank deliveries to Ukraine

It is unlikely that these Marders will go to Ukraine, and it is not Scholz's fault that this is so. People that are criticising Scholz for this either do not know the facts, or do know the facts and are seeking to score political points off Scholz - heck his party wasn't even in power during the decade+ these Marders became irreperably unserviceable.

All the few hundred Marders IFV that are fit for use are actually operational in peace keeping operations and such like. The thousand or so that are in storage are better described as scrap metal. They have been plundered for spare parts to keep the operational ones going. Better to start again with a newbuild vehicle, which is actually the German aim although that will not be available in time to help Ukraine. This has been a longrunning issue in the German military, it was bad that the Germans couldn't really fulfill their NATO and EU responsibilities for high readiness forces. I have been reading various reports on this for many years.

The older Leapord 1 MBT sound as if they are not in much better condition. I doubt they could be put in a fit state to go to Ukraine this year. Same reasons. And the operational Leapord 2 MBT are pretty scarce. You could say the same for the older UK Challenger MBTs, and for much the same reasons I'm not sure the UK would want to release the upgraded ones (which in any case are due to start cycling through their own next upgrade programme). The French have the same issue with the Leclerc MBTs. To be honest all Western IFV and MBT next-generation vehicle programmess have been going round in circles for a couple of decades due to the inability to get a design solution that adequately closed the move-fight-armour equation, and watching the results from Ukraine may make that even worse (for very political reasons, I digress).

In any case putting any of these Western MBTs into Ukraine would require a huge logistical and retraining effort that should not be underestimated. The only ones that are available in sufficient numbers are the M1 Abrams. The French, German, and British MBT fleets are simply too small to b eworth the effort distracting the Ukraine with.

Far better to focus on moving the stocks of ex-Soviet MBTs and IFVs. And artillery, lots of it, then more. And get them those planes - the ex-Soviet ones for now. And (being realistic) a shed load of F-16s for follow on use.

[EDIT - update, I have just read that Scholz has pretty much confirmed my views on the Marders. It is worth reading the rest of that as Scholz makes a number of other valid points Germany will stop importing Russian gas ‘very soon’, says Olaf Scholz]

 

[wdolson]

A lot of armies wore cheaper boots than that (UK and US) for a long time. Difference is they realised in the 90’s & started issueing better ones. The ones issued to UK known as “combat high” boots through the 80’s to early 90’s had a compressed cardboard unit fitted in the heal. We used to run in them a lot, most people with a forces background from that era have knackered knees because of them, my knees are pretty shot hence I no longer run for fitness. I’m preserving what’s left.

I was born with knackered knees.

It is unlikely that these Marders will go to Ukraine, and it is not Scholz's fault that this is so. People that are criticising Scholz for this either do not know the facts, or do know the facts and are seeking to score political points off Scholz - heck his party wasn't even in power during the decade+ these Marders became irreperably unserviceable.

All the few hundred Marders IFV that are fit for use are actually operational in peace keeping operations and such like. The thousand or so that are in storage are better described as scrap metal. They have been plundered for spare parts to keep the operational ones going. Better to start again with a newbuild vehicle, which is actually the German aim although that will not be available in time to help Ukraine. This has been a longrunning issue in the German military, it was bad that the Germans couldn't really fulfill their NATO and EU responsibilities for high readiness forces. I have been reading various reports on this for many years.

The older Leapord 1 MBT sound as if they are not in much better condition. I doubt they could be put in a fit state to go to Ukraine this year. Same reasons. And the operational Leapord 2 MBT are pretty scarce. You could say the same for the older UK Challenger MBTs, and for much the same reasons I'm not sure the UK would want to release the upgraded ones (which in any case are due to start cycling through their own next upgrade programme). The French have the same issue with the Leclerc MBTs. To be honest all Western IFV and MBT next-generation vehicle programmess have been going round in circles for a couple of decades due to the inability to get a design solution that adequately closed the move-fight-armour equation, and watching the results from Ukraine may make that even worse (for very political reasons, I digress).

In any case putting any of these Western MBTs into Ukraine would require a huge logistical and retraining effort that should not be underestimated. The only ones that are available in sufficient numbers are the M1 Abrams. The French, German, and British MBT fleets are simply too small to b eworth the effort distracting the Ukraine with.

Far better to focus on moving the stocks of ex-Soviet MBTs and IFVs. And artillery, lots of it, then more. And get them those planes - the ex-Soviet ones for now. And (being realistic) a shed load of F-16s for follow on use.

[EDIT - update, I have just read that Scholz has pretty much confirmed my views on the Marders. It is worth reading the rest of that as Scholz makes a number of other valid points Germany will stop importing Russian gas ‘very soon’, says Olaf Scholz]

I think Scholz was talking about giving the Ukrainians the Marder Light Tank
Marder Light Tank | Military-Today.com

From the description it sounds like the Germans have been recycling the Marder IFV chasis, but I don't know how many they have sitting around.

All this talk of Marders, for some reason the Germans keep recycling the name. During WW II there were several different vehicles called Marder. Back then they were tank destroyers.

 

[petit_bateau]

I was born with knackered knees.



I think Scholz was talking about giving the Ukrainians the Marder Light Tank
Marder Light Tank | Military-Today.com

From the description it sounds like the Germans have been recycling the Marder IFV chasis, but I don't know how many they have sitting around.

All this talk of Marders, for some reason the Germans keep recycling the name. During WW II there were several different vehicles called Marder. Back then they were tank destroyers.

That proposed Marder light/medium tank design with the 105mm was never built. I think there are only a few prototypes. The design concept did not fit well on a modern north european high intensity battlefield. The French keep something similar in their AFV stable, but that has to do with French strategic and doctrinal needs outside of Europe.

These are thing that are being discussed - Marder (IFV) - Wikipedia. Not that dissimilar to the Soviet equivalents (primarily BMP, but also BTR), of which there are plenty still available in the ex WarPac eastern-European inventories and which the Ukraine has a logistics and trained personnel to use alongside their own BMP/BTRs.

Marder gets recycled much the same way a lot of names in this product area get recycled. Lightning, Typhoon, Puma, etc.

 

[nativewolf]

I am not actually worried about the upkeep and maint on a running and operating MBT in Ukraine. Frankly I expect a 2 week shelf life. They project force, they'll be destroyed. So, I don't think they will even get to oil changes much less anything else. Know where the grease points are? Who cares it will be blown up in a week. As long as ammunition is supplied with the vehicles it's all good. However, there were thousands of t72s floating around. Have they all been recycled?

The problem with sending abrams is that they are a bit complex compared to a t72 or a L2 and making use of them actually requires driver and gunner training. We should have 2000 ukrainian tankers in the states training.

 

[wdolson]

That proposed Marder light/medium tank design with the 105mm was never built. I think there are only a few prototypes. The design concept did not fit well on a modern north european high intensity battlefield. The French keep something similar in their AFV stable, but that has to do with French strategic and doctrinal needs outside of Europe.

These are thing that are being discussed - Marder (IFV) - Wikipedia. Not that dissimilar to the Soviet equivalents (primarily BMP, but also BTR), of which there are plenty still available in the ex WarPac eastern-European inventories and which the Ukraine has a logistics and trained personnel to use alongside their own BMP/BTRs.

Marder gets recycled much the same way a lot of names in this product area get recycled. Lightning, Typhoon, Puma, etc.

I didn't see where the Marder light tank was in service, but the Argentinians have a pseudo-tank based on the Marder and I think somebody else operates a Marder variant/tank.

The Marder would likely have better protection than the BMP. The BMP was designed to only protect the crew from radiation in a post nuclear war scenario. Soviet troops in Afghanistan found it was safer to ride on top than inside. Getting hit with even rifle rounds would cause the interior to spall and throw shrapnel around. Western IFV don't have great armor, but they can usually stop a rifle round without endangering the crew.

Being more familiar with WW II equipment I'm also more familiar with the WW II vintage vehicles and planes with those names.

Came across this a short while ago. It's a podcast with Kamil Galeev as a guest.
‎"Hexapodia" Is the Key Insight: by Noah Smith & Brad DeLong: PODCAST: "Hexapodia" is þe Key Insight! XXXV: Putin's Surprise Attack on Ukraine, wiþ Special Guest Kamil Galeev on Apple Podcasts

He's a bit hard to understand between his Russian accent and the bad internet connection he had with the podcast, but he had some interesting information. Among the tidbits was the fact that the Russian rail network is highly dependent on spare parts from the west that are now embargoed. If the sanctions last more than a couple of months, the rail network is going to start to fail and Russia is very, very dependent on the rail network.

He also made the argument that the fears that Russia is just going to pivot to using Chinese hardware is not likely. First the Chinese don't have exact replacements so everything requiring parts that they can't get anymore will need to be redesigned and unlike some countries the Russians see and are afraid of the Belt and Road initiative.

I found it worth the difficultly understanding him.

 

[petit_bateau]

I didn't see where the Marder light tank was in service, but the Argentinians have a pseudo-tank based on the Marder and I think somebody else operates a Marder variant/tank.

I know the Argentine one, I've seen a few of them when I was working there, but I can't conceive of them being in a condition to be useful to the Ukraine at this point. They were fabricated in Argentina and apparently were due a major upgrade that I don't think has happened, at least not yet.

Tanque Argentino Mediano - Wikipedia

By the way I noted yesterday in the Daily Energy News* that Argentina is once again having a particularly hard time. Partly as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine sending LNG prices up.

One Of The Most Gas-Rich Countries In The World Is Facing An Energy Crisis | OilPrice.com

Russia’s war in Ukraine has parked chaos in the natural gas and LNG markets, and due to years of underinvestment, Argentina has been left particularly vulnerable

oilprice.com

* Energy Sector News

 

[Skipdd]

As expected
Russia Shuffles Command in Ukraine as Thousands Flee the East
Russia Shuffles Command in Ukraine as Thousands Flee the East. This may be paywalled, so here is a snippett.

They are appointing Aleksandr V. Dvornikovas head of all forces in Ukraine. From the article, “General Dvornikov, 60, holds the second-highest rank in the Russian army. He was named a hero of the Russian Federation for his command of Russian forces in the brutal war in Syria, where Mr. Putin deployed Russian warplanes and missiles to help Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, in a multi-sided conflict among the government, armed rebels, jihadists and others. In September 2016, the general was appointed commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, with responsibility for the restive North Caucasus.”

Interested to get others’ perspective on how much impact this will have.

 

[madodel]

The Russians Fighting Putin in Ukraine

Putin may have opened a can of worms with his insane invasion of Ukraine by providing a place for Russians to go to train and organize overthrowing his murderous regime.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I am not actually worried about the upkeep and maint on a running and operating MBT in Ukraine. Frankly I expect a 2 week shelf life. They project force, they'll be destroyed. So, I don't think they will even get to oil changes much less anything else. Know where the grease points are? Who cares it will be blown up in a week. As long as ammunition is supplied with the vehicles it's all good. However, there were thousands of t72s floating around. Have they all been recycled?

The problem with sending abrams is that they are a bit complex compared to a t72 or a L2 and making use of them actually requires driver and gunner training. We should have 2000 ukrainian tankers in the states training.

That short of a service life in battle doesn't sound quite so awful so long as they aren't crewed when destroyed, or if they simply break down. But if the crews can only expect to live a few weeks as well..... doesn't sound like a great strategy.

 

[petit_bateau]

Oh what a tangled web .... China delivering drones and missile systems to Serbia using six of their Y20 military airlifters.

Wars in Europe are never simple, and rarely stay contained in Europe.

https://inf.news/en/military/bfbd4a04b78e8ae97e89c49ed527f5fd.html

 

[iPlug]

UK sending Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine now, could lead to some big Russian ship kills.

Britain to send anti-ship missiles and armoured vehicles to Ukraine

Ukraine aktuell: London verspricht Kiew gepanzerte Fahrzeuge | DW | 09.04.2022

 

[dziny]

That short of a service life in battle doesn't sound quite so awful so long as they aren't crewed when destroyed, or if they simply break down. But if the crews can only expect to live a few weeks as well..... doesn't sound like a great strategy.

I've read long time ago that 15 minutes was the life expectancy of a MBT crew in the NATO-Warsaw pact conflict (tactical nuke deployment expected).

 

[nwdiver]

Thinking of all the aid the US is sending Ukraine made paying my taxes this year a little easier.

I just hope they find a way to redirect a lot of seized assets to assist in rebuilding. Last I heard infrastructure damage is estimated at ~$120B. Or maybe there will be a $10/bbl tax on Russian oil until the end of time.

 

[Xdama]

I've read long time ago that 15 minutes was the life expectancy of a MBT crew in the NATO-Warsaw pact conflict (tactical nuke deployment expected).

Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancy (book not the crap film) was quite a read for a 21yr old Brit Soldier on his first posting to Hohne (West Germany) in 1988. That soldier was me & the book although fictional was pretty damn close to the mark in terms of timescales. It gave my base approx an hour (MBT and artillery stationed there) if the USSR & satellites went for a Blitzkrieg type attack on the West.
Thankfully modern Russia & it’s armed forces are a shadow of their former self.

 

[heltok]

There is a very disturbing video going around:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512733846911041541

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512756174520676356

 

[wdolson]

As expected
Russia Shuffles Command in Ukraine as Thousands Flee the East
Russia Shuffles Command in Ukraine as Thousands Flee the East. This may be paywalled, so here is a snippett.

They are appointing Aleksandr V. Dvornikovas head of all forces in Ukraine. From the article, “General Dvornikov, 60, holds the second-highest rank in the Russian army. He was named a hero of the Russian Federation for his command of Russian forces in the brutal war in Syria, where Mr. Putin deployed Russian warplanes and missiles to help Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, in a multi-sided conflict among the government, armed rebels, jihadists and others. In September 2016, the general was appointed commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, with responsibility for the restive North Caucasus.”

Interested to get others’ perspective on how much impact this will have.

Considering how bad they are doing, it probably can't hurt their cause much. Though this guy's claim to fame was running a much smaller operation with elite troops.

 

[madodel]

There is a very disturbing video going around:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512733846911041541

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512756174520676356

I just don't know how to respond to this. It's like there is no low in this war, not that there is in any war. But this is really beyond the pale. Does Putin have all his troops on drugs like Hitler did? Keep them hopped up so they'll commit any act of evil. If these Russians survive this war they will be totally F'd up and unable to survive in society. Assuming there is any society to return to by the time Putin is done.

 

[JRP3]

It's so extreme it feels like propaganda. Has anyone actually tracked down the claimed videos? Not going to do it myself.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I can only hope that evil creature finds himself in the hands of Ukranian troops. Sickening.