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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Finding information on Russia's artillery supply is difficult. This is one of the only analysis I can find. They talk about Russian artillery at the end.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/07...y-tanks-combat-aviation-artillery-ammunition/

Russia restarted artillery production in 2014 after they realized that most of their artillery was expired. They also started a program to rehab their ammunition supply at at rate of about 570,000 rounds a year. It's estimated they rehabbed about 4 million rounds by the start of the war.

They have been firing about 60,000 rounds a day for most of the war, only dropping off in the last few days, though they have been losing large amounts of ammunition a day to HIMARS. They have fired over 8 million rounds and lost a fair amount too.

It's hard to know for sure, but it is possible Russia is running low on artillery ammunition.
 
This doesn't seem like a nation getting ready to limit oil exports.

Russia Aims to Take Control of Oil Pricing by Creating Benchmark​

  • Oil-trading on national platform to start in October: document
  • G-7 price cap plan reinforced need for Russian benchmark
There have been previous attempts for a Russian crude benchmark. The Urals-Brent price differential clearly shows the effect of the sanctions on Russia with the differential opening out from ~$5 to ~$35. Sanctions are working to an extent.


A news item on that from back when the spread widened


There are many reasons why the Urals benchmark is not attractive, and they have likely only worsened since this 2017 analysis.

 
  • Informative
Reactions: Skipdd
Also this post by John Kemp Reuters is relevant

"The European Union, in particular, appears to have sanctioned itself close to a recession as soaring prices for oil, gas and electricity, as well as food products and manufactured items squeeze household and business spending."

 
A really good post about the economical implications of the war for the US, EU, Japan, China etc:
The EROI graph (and the accompanying textual 'discussion') are way off for renewables.

The article shows an EROI of about 2.5 for solar, whereas reality lies in the 7-10 range.


Typically wind EROI comes in at about 18 (or 20-30), not the 4 they show in the article


even though many people in the anti-green movement do their best to say otherwise as this critique further explains


I'm not agin an article that seriously addresses the political smoke & mirrors of modern economies, but it would be good if they could get their facts right on the more serious stuff if they wish to be believed.
 
And the tracked version have now arrived, probably from UK by the style of some of the markings. Double the capacity.

Oh wow, MLRS M270. U.S. not yet giving these long range versions at this point - Operational range: 480 km (298 mi). That can strike anywhere into Russian invaded areas of Ukraine including Crimea and a certain bridge that needs to be made non-operable, for that matter. Not sure has enough power to render bridge unusable, however.
 
Oh wow, MLRS M270. U.S. not yet giving these long range versions at this point - Operational range: 480 km (298 mi). That can strike anywhere into Russian invaded areas of Ukraine including Crimea and a certain bridge that needs to be made non-operable, for that matter. Not sure has enough power to render bridge unusable, however.

The range depends on the missiles used, and NATO are not providing the very long range rockets. The M270 fires the exact same rockets as the wheeled HIMARS the Ukrainians already have, it is just capable of loading a two modules instead of 1. The normal load per module is 6 rockets with the capability of using special longer range rockets that are bigger.
 
WSJ article with analysis on Chinese firms exporting material to Russia to support their war effort. And actions by US to deter same.

(It showed up in an Apple feed - don’t know if it is paywalled - thinking not, but I can summarize later if that’s the case - just let me know. Working on a project at the moment that is usurping most of my time.)

 

The US has something like 4000 F-16s in storage. It would be quite easy to take some out for the Ukrainians. The trick is training both pilots and ground crews. I believe normal ground crew training takes more than a year. Pilot training is long too, but there is a transition course for pilots familiar with other fighters, though I believe it's aimed at pilots familiar with other NATO aircraft. Russian cockpit design is very different from western manufacturers.

I'm surprised they are talking about F-15s, the US doesn't have many to spare and the C/D is more of a pure air superiority fighter and the F-16 is almost as good for all the jobs it will be called on in Ukraine.

Trent Telenko suggested NATO or the US create something akin to the American Volunteer Group (Flying Tigers of WW II) for ground support for NATO fighters in Ukraine. This would be made up of people who are civilian volunteers (or recently left military for this task) who go to Ukraine to maintain the aircraft for the Ukrainians. Then the pilots could be trained to fly the fighters with Ukrainians native ground support coming along later when they learn the trade.

There have been announcements of some latest generation anti-aircraft systems being sent to Ukraine and getting the Ukrainians trained to use them. The intention may be to use these systems to protect the bases where the F-16s will operate. The Ukrainians can hide the HIMARS by moving them around, but US fighters will have to be based in one place and as soon as the Russians know where they are based, they will made a concerted effort to take out the US fighters. First rate air defense for both aircraft and cruise missiles will be a must.

I'd be surprised if the F-16s are operational before the fall, and possibly later. If the Ukrainians can knock out Russian air defenses and get some degree of control of the air, that will be a big boost to their capabilities.

I saw something yesterday that somebody in the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense was predicting the war would be over by the end of the year. The Ukrainians should be much stronger by this fall. They are incorporating western weapons into the army know and building the army up to a million strong. They will be hitting a peak in numbers and equipment as the Russians start running out of everything they need.

I read on ISW that the Russians are trying to conduct a limited offensive again. I think they have incorporated their training brigades into the combat forces and are trying to use them to take ground. But they are now locally low on artillery ammunition and the Ukrainians are fighting back hard. It's likely a lot of those newly injected, experienced troops are going to get killed or wounded in the coming weeks negating the boost from fresh troops and leaving their training organization completely broken. The next injection of troops will be essentially untrained because there was nobody to train them.
 
.../ but US fighters will have to be based in one place /...

Are you really sure about this?

There are a lot of countries that are using road bases just as the Ukrainians are doing now.

Among those countries are Australia, Finland, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the US and Sweden.

Japan and South Korea has the F-15. Taiwan has the F-16. And Japan also has the Mitsubishi F-2, which as I understand it is basically another F-16. If I'm not mistaken the F-16 can be equipped with a drogue chute. And the F-15 has a large dorsal air brake that can be deployed in flight when landing before the main gear has touched the ground.

Source:
 
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Are you really sure about this?

There are a lot of countries that are using road bases just as the Ukrainians are doing now.

Among those countries are Australia, Finland, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the US and Sweden.

Japan and South Korea has the F-15. Taiwan has the F-16. And Japan also has the Mitsubishi F-2, which as I understand it is basically another F-16. If I'm not mistaken the F-16 can be equipped with a drogue chute. And the F-15 has a large dorsal air brake that can be deployed in flight when landing before the main gear has touched the ground.

Source:
Singapore operate their F15 and F16 from roadways from time to time, as well as ordinarily from the main runways. The roadways have some relevant modifications. I'm sure Ukraine was making a lot of preparations since 2014, that is very obvious from events.
 
Singapore operate their F15 and F16 from roadways from time to time, as well as ordinarily from the main runways. The roadways have some relevant modifications. I'm sure Ukraine was making a lot of preparations since 2014, that is very obvious from events.
After a 5 year hiatus, Taiwan in 2020 started to do annual practice of landing and takeoff of F-16s on highways again:
Taiwan's Air Force Can Land an F-16 on a Highway. Does It Matter?
Taiwan lands fighters on highway as annual drills reach peak
 
Are you really sure about this?

There are a lot of countries that are using road bases just as the Ukrainians are doing now.

Among those countries are Australia, Finland, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the US and Sweden.

Japan and South Korea has the F-15. Taiwan has the F-16. And Japan also has the Mitsubishi F-2, which as I understand it is basically another F-16. If I'm not mistaken the F-16 can be equipped with a drogue chute. And the F-15 has a large dorsal air brake that can be deployed in flight when landing before the main gear has touched the ground.

Source:

Straight roads can be used to operate aircraft and as the link says, it's been done many times, but while US fighters are extremely good aircraft, they require facilities for maintenance and one drawback of western fighters is most are vulnerable to FOD (Foreign Object Damage).

The Soviets designed their fighters with the engine inlets either up on top of the plane or with taxi inlets that open on the ground. This enabled them to operate on fields with debris scattered on the taxiways and runways, which happens when airfields are attacked. Western fighters all have the inlets on the bottom or sides where they can ingest debris. It's common practice on western airfields to train personnel to be constantly diligent about finding and removing debris. I've been to open houses at US air bases where there were signs everywhere reminding people about FOD.

A highway can be kept clear of debris just like a dedicated runway, but the aircraft can only move under their own power on paved surfaces. Trying to park them in woods along the side of the road and firing them up there would only invite ingesting rocks, leaves, and other forest objects.

The facilities to maintain the aircraft have to be located somewhere near where they are operating. That means some kind of permanence to the basing. Forward bases where aircraft have their fuel tanks topped up and/or quickly reloaded with munitions can be established with maintenance bases to the rear, but I don't see where they would do the Ukrainians much good in this conflict.

Ukraine is large for a European country, but is fairly small for a modern jet fighter. The Soviet era fighters the Ukrainians have now are shorter range than US fighters and the Ukrainians haven't done any forward basing I'm aware of.

In any case, there will have to be some kind of established bases for the fighters. Even if it's some co-opted highway, there needs to be facilities to support the aircraft. As soon as the bases are established, the Russians will be trying to take them out.

I did come across some further information about the pilot training. It not only hasn't started yet, it hasn't made it to Biden's desk yet. The bill has just passed the House and won't be taken up by the Senate until September
Slava Ukraine! US Approves To Train Ukrainian Pilots On US Fighter Jets Like F-16, F-15EX. But There's A Catch

Ukraine will be lucky to get US fighters in action by early next year.

I expect that after the war is over Ukraine will be switching to a completely NATO compatible equipment list. With the lessons learned from this war, seamless integration with NATO supply chains, and other factors, Russia will probably never come knocking again. Ukraine will be just too tough to even contemplate.

Plus the Russian army will be broken for at least a few decades after this. It's going to take them a long time to rebuild what institutional knowledge they had and was lost when they threw their last expert into the fire. Depending on how Russia tries to recover from this war and what happens within Russia in the aftermath, it may be the end of the Russian army as an effective fighting force forever.
 
.../ one drawback of western fighters is most are vulnerable to FOD (Foreign Object Damage).

The Soviets designed their fighters with the engine inlets either up on top of the plane or with taxi inlets that open on the ground. This enabled them to operate on fields with debris scattered on the taxiways and runways, which happens when airfields are attacked. Western fighters all have the inlets on the bottom or sides where they can ingest debris. It's common practice on western airfields to train personnel to be constantly diligent about finding and removing debris. I've been to open houses at US air bases where there were signs everywhere reminding people about FOD.

A highway can be kept clear of debris just like a dedicated runway, but the aircraft can only move under their own power on paved surfaces. Trying to park them in woods along the side of the road and firing them up there would only invite ingesting rocks, leaves, and other forest objects. /...

And yet Finland has been using the F-18 from road bases since ~1992. That fighter has it's intakes at similar positions compared to the F-16 and F-15...

.../ In any case, there will have to be some kind of established bases for the fighters. Even if it's some co-opted highway, there needs to be facilities to support the aircraft. As soon as the bases are established, the Russians will be trying to take them out.

Doesn't this also apply to Ukraine's current Air Force? Also: An engine or any other part can be shipped over the border for repair. All the Ukrainians have to do is exchange parts on their new US jets...
 
.../ The facilities to maintain the aircraft have to be located somewhere near where they are operating. That means some kind of permanence to the basing. Forward bases where aircraft have their fuel tanks topped up and/or quickly reloaded with munitions can be established with maintenance bases to the rear, but I don't see where they would do the Ukrainians much good in this conflict. /...

Whatever is needed to keep an Airforce operating – the Ukranians are doing it now. And they themselves want US fighter jets...