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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Highways can be swept of FOD too.
It's a big deal in the USAF
FOD Awareness – FOD Prevention (Foreign Object Debris Prevention)
The Russians aren't all that concerned with the existing Ukrainian air force. Russian AA defense is good enough to stop the Ukrainians from being too aggressive. NATO aircraft with NATO arms have a slew of weapons for the SEAD (Supression of Enemy Air Defense) role. The Russians are very afraid of that. Knock out Russian anti-air systems an air force with NATO weapons will rain down a world of hurt on anything on the Russian side.
Ukraine getting NATO aircraft is an existential threat.
Their air force is operating, but at a very low level because of the air defense assets the Russians have and the Ukrainians don't have the ability to take out much of Russia's anti-air assets.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Not to Ukraine. Does anyone here think that Ukraine will invade Putler's RuSSia?
There have been some increases in production to replace the stocks the Ukrainians are burning through. Despite the memes that have been floating around for a long time, most Democrats are pro-defense too.
We shouldn't be too worried about those weapons winding up on the black market. The Ukrainian government will deal with anyone caught doing that.
Existential threat to Russia.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
And this assumption is based on?...
No.
I think that they are interested in reclaiming all of Ukraine including Crimea.
I doubt that the US and others would keep supplying weapons and aid if they did invade Russia.
I strongly doubt that. The global black market for arms is heavily monitored by all the major powers. They can't stop it, but they have a pretty good idea what's being traded. If US arms sent to Ukraine were showing up on the black market in any numbers, some of them would have been intercepted by this point and the US would be having a cow at Ukraine about it. The arms giving to Ukraine are under the condition they don't leave the country without US (or NATO) permission.
Currently there are also very few routes for arms to leave Ukraine in any way that benefits corrupt Ukrainians. The Black Sea is mostly closed, to the west every government is dedicated to arms flowing the other way and trying to sell or transport arms into or through those countries is very risky. That leaves Russia where there probably are tons of arms flowing into Russia from Russian soldiers taking arms and selling them back home, but most of that is Russian army equipment. But very little of those arms are leaving Russia. The Russians have captured some western equipment, but it's relatively small number compared to all the Russian hardware lying around.
There was a black market problem of arms from the 2014 conflict with Russia ending up on the black market, but that was after the bulk of the fighting was done. A lot of those weapons ended up in places like Chechnya where the future rebels are arming for the next conflict with Moscow. Weapons also went to conflicts in Syria, Libya, etc.
Ukraine, after war, becomes a trove for black market arms trade
The US keeps track of all the serial numbers on all the arms it sells or gives away overseas. When American made weapons start showing up in a war zone in the wrong hands, they investigate and raise alarms when stolen arms are appearing on the black market. It's much easier to steal and sell Russian arms. Their military is so corrupt with so much stealing that it's easier to steal Russian equipment and sell it on without getting caught.
The Ukrainians don't want to invade Russia. That would be foolish for many reasons.
I didn't have the link handy earlier, but Thomas C. Theiner has had some threads on Ukrainians and western aircraft. They are worth a read
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Yeah don’t think the Ukrainians are selling. But the Russians and Chechnyan soldiers would probably not hesitate to sell some of their captured weapons.
If they manage to transport washing machines home, they can probably set up the chain for one of those.
Not saying you can just log onto a generic darknetmarket and buy one like you can buy fake USD, used underwear or heroin, but there probably are black markets where some terrorist group or drug cartel has actually bought one of those.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't characterize that as "lots" though, more like a handful and there is no evidence either they have hit the black market. That's probably barely enough for Russia to take back to dissect and test to see any vulnerabilities or things they can copy for their own weapons.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Go look at Perun's videos on Youtube, he has one that covers this.
Basically - not much of a spending increase by US Gov. We have THAT MANY weapons that we produce each year, and weapons systems. This all stems from the fact that US doctrine for the past 60 years has been to have enough weapons to fight BOTH our major adversaries at the same time, and still dominate (in this case, Russia and China).
What we are giving Ukraine is like Bill gates giving a homeless man on the street $100. It's a lot to the homeless guy, it's nothing to Gates.
EDIT - and by all accounts, while Ukraine is getting "state of the art" stuff from us, it's from our older stockpiles. Stuff that would have to be rotated out and rebuilt or destroyed in just 1-5 years time.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Wouldn't most of the value of these mobile middle systems be in the missiles themselves? I'd think the "system" is mostly just tubes, no?
Gotta think after the missiles explode I to millions of pieces the weapon is gone. Obviously having the launching system is a big first step, but it's nothing without more missiles.
Gotta think after the missiles explode I to millions of pieces the weapon is gone. Obviously having the launching system is a big first step, but it's nothing without more missiles.
petit_bateau
Active Member
After about 2000 western MANPADS and ATGMS started incorporating various safety systems to somewhat minimise proliferation risk. It is also why some systems are less often exported. For example UK has seldom exported Starstreak (before Ukraine) as Starstreak is quite good at defeating missile protection systems (i.e. better than pretty much everything else). However these safety systems are primarily aimed at managing proliferation risk in the hands of non-state-actors rather than preventing state actors reverse engineering them.
The extent to which the smart stuff is in the missile or the launcher depends on the individual system designs.
The extent to which the smart stuff is in the missile or the launcher depends on the individual system designs.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Read this carefully, if only because it did not start in 2019
www.theguardian.com
Boris Johnson and the Lebedevs: how I exposed the prime minister’s defining scandal
The ties between the PM and an ex-KGB officer, first revealed in the Observer three years ago, could be Johnson’s lasting legacy
www.theguardian.com
The Chechens are preparing for a civil war. Kamil Galeev has made the case that Chechnya is quietly mobilizing, but not sending any more troops to Ukraine. They are taking anything they can get and ratholing it. There are probably other groups in Russia doing the same thing.
With the sanctions on it's tougher to export anything from Russia, though not impossible. I suspect that the weapons disappearing from Ukraine are going into weapons stashes in Russia and not leaving the country.
There are groups who have gotten American weapons in Iraq and used them. Isis even got a hold of a couple of Abrahms. They are out of service now.
Perun has hung a lantern on just how much military hardware the US has in warehouses. And the US stuff is well maintained, unlike the Russian stockpiles.
I think it's been estimated that the US has given away about 1/3 of its Javelin stockpile at this point. Which is a lot, but 2/3 of the stockpile in combination with all the other anti-tank weapons in the US inventory is plenty to do any job the US military will need to do.
One thing the Ukrainians don't have which is a major part of US war doctrine is US air power. That's still at 100% and it's the US's equivalent of the large piles of Russian artillery. The Russians are artillery heavy, the US is air heavy.
Read this carefully, if only because it did not start in 2019
Boris Johnson and the Lebedevs: how I exposed the prime minister’s defining scandal
The ties between the PM and an ex-KGB officer, first revealed in the Observer three years ago, could be Johnson’s lasting legacy
Vlad's guy in London...
Being the opportunistic bottom feeder he is, Johnson turned on Russia pretty quickly when they invaded Ukraine. That's different from Putin's high ranking assets in the US who appear to still be loyal to the hand that's been feeding them.
The Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to move their supply depots back and move supply by truck to the front. As this thread points out, it gives the partisans in occupied territory a good chance of taking out supply. A Ural truck is a softer target than an armored train.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Somebody seems to be getting worried about Ukraine long range weaponry
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The US should quietly send the longer-range rockets to Ukraine. Then Ukraine should strike deeper. Taking out these ammo dumps has been one of the best possible developments of Ukraine.
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