Russia/Ukraine conflict

[DeepFrz]

No, but I'd like to if you have a link to the photo. The only photos I can find are from quite a distance away and appear to show the concrete piers pretty well intact. I have no doubt that many corners were cut during the hurried bridge construction though, so let's hope that there is plenty of damage.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-s-crimea-bridge-could-collapse-anytim

http://

No, but I'd like to if you have a link to the photo. The only photos I can find are from quite a distance away and appear to show the concrete piers pretty well intact. I have no doubt that many corners were cut during the hurried bridge construction though, so let's hope that there is plenty of damage.

Russia’s Crimea Bridge Could Collapse Anytime

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called construction of a bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea a “historic mission.” He should pay better

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Scan down "Special Kherson Cat" twitter feed for Oct. 12 posts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580307229650997249

 

[Cosmacelf]

I think that mostly depends on how the war goes. They built the entire road bridge in 2 years, so replacing several deck sections shouldn't take that long really. I don't think they'll have to replace any of the piers.

This 5 minute video has good info on bridge repair estimates and also what it means for Russia's logistics. Worth listening to:

 

[SmokyPeat]

http://

Scan down "Special Kherson Cat" twitter feed for Oct. 12 posts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580307229650997249

http://

Scan down "Special Kherson Cat" twitter feed for Oct. 12 posts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1580307229650997249

Yes, that relatively small concrete bearing pad atop that massive pier is clearly badly damaged. I'm pretty certain they will just recast that bearing surface rather than replace the entire pier it sits on, though. Unless of course something "unfortunate" happens to the bridge again before the repair can be made.

 

[DeepFrz]

This 5 minute video has good info on bridge repair estimates and also what it means for Russia's logistics. Worth listening to:

Of course he was using information that was available at the time. For one, only one lane is available on the road bridge with severe limitations on weight and speed. Car traffic only at a rate of about 20 cars per hour. Russia is saying repairs will be done by July 23 but I'll bet a dollar (cdn) it isn't at full capacity in 23.

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582024891871555585

 

[ElectricIAC]

There’s no such thing as a free lunch.

 

[wdolson]

Btw, random 2am thought occurred to me last night. Why didn‘t someone propose to stick UN peacekeeping forces in Ukraine before Russia invaded again?

It would have been vetoed in the security council.

Fair question but it is 28 years til 2050. That's 1 generation. Where will china be in 2050 is a very very good question as their dynamics are also...not great and they look like they are on the Japanese demographic bus but moving even faster.

China and Russia both face a huge demographic cliff. Their birthrates are low and they have the largest cadre of their populations headed into retirement age. They don't have enough young people working to pay the pensions without dragging down the economy so they need to deal with a generation of economic doldrums or let the old people starve. As you observed Japan went into this in the early 90s and is just now emerging from that.

Russia is also faced with the fact that the ethnic peoples who are not in power are the only groups having children. If they realize there are far fewer masters than there were before, they could rise up and break away from Russia. Most of Russia's oil and gas are in ethnic regions, those breakaway provinces could become very wealthy without Moscow.

Yes and it appears that the section is twisting and because of the weight they are trying to remove the concrete. I doubt that this bridge will be back into full capacity in 2023 as it looks like incompetent contractors trying to do a quick and dirty job. I saw, somewhere, that the bridge capacity right now is about 20 cars per hour and the ferries hauling the trucks are quite small.

Russia sold off most of the ferries after the bridge was built. For a while between the capture of Crimea and the completion of the bridge the ferry route was the busiest water route in the world.

The Azoz Sea usually freezes over in the winter. It's one of the least saline seas in the world. The Russians keep the sea lanes open with ice breakers, but what if the Ukrainians sink the ice breakers? The ferries would not be able to run. The Azoz also produces ice flows that move out into the Black Sea. The Russians tried to build a bridge across the strait during WW II but ice flows took out the pylons before they were complete.

Russia already has rogue actors in possession of nukes. Time to stand up to them before they get the false courage to use them.

Where is this documented?

I think that mostly depends on how the war goes. They built the entire road bridge in 2 years, so replacing several deck sections shouldn't take that long really. I don't think they'll have to replace any of the piers.

The Russians built the bridges with help from European contractors. The top line contractors were all Russian firms, but they all subcontracted with foreign firms for the expertise. Russia has very little native expertise in this kind of bridge building.

With the concrete cracked and winter coming they are going to face ice wedging issues in the cracks this winter. That could make the damage worse before they can repair it.

 

[X Fan]

Trent with a good commentary on Russian rail challenges moving forward:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582395478695477248

 

[SmokyPeat]

The Russians built the bridges with help from European contractors. The top line contractors were all Russian firms, but they all subcontracted with foreign firms for the expertise. Russia has very little native expertise in this kind of bridge building.

With the concrete cracked and winter coming they are going to face ice wedging issues in the cracks this winter. That could make the damage worse before they can repair it.

Even so, the bridge is already built. While the repair work certainly wouldn't be trivial, the hardest work has been done. I think Russia losing the war will present far more of a challenge to the repairs than anything else. The Russians got a few years use from their bridge-
better than the last Kerch bridge.

 

[madodel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582024891871555585

Are we talking a whole sack of potatoes here, or just a large order of McDonaldski fries worth?

 

[JRP3]

Thread tracking deaths in the Wagner group. Seem to be mostly criminals who chose to fight to get out of prison.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582209700749529088

 

[Artful Dodger]

Are we talking a whole sack of potatoes here, or just a large order of McDonaldski fries worth?

Is potato.

 

[nativewolf]

opsec is breaking down a bit both north and south. Interestingly russia did a probing attacking from belgorad towards Kharkiv. Was repulsed, interesting though.

russia is pushing forward the evacuation of people from Kherson. Worrisome is that the excuse they are giving is Ukraine planning to use vile/sanctioned weapons.

Shouldn't be too much longer I guess.

 

[nativewolf]

Are we talking a whole sack of potatoes here, or just a large order of McDonaldski fries worth?

It does raise the question: how much vodka can you distill from a sack of potatoes?

 

[Artful Dodger]

russia is pushing forward the evacuation of people from Kherson. Worrisome is that the excuse they are giving is Ukraine planning to use vile/sanctioned weapons.

... and that's why you don't allow any gaps to form between your lines and the enemy. 'Go ahead, gas yer own'. Not that Putie isn't capable of that too.

 

[GWord]

It does raise the question: how much vodka can you distill from a sack of potatoes?

Ah the classic Russian dilemma. Eat the potato now or ferment it and drink it later?….

Maybe they can make energy drinks from the veggies instead

 

[wdolson]

Trent with a good commentary on Russian rail challenges moving forward:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582395478695477248

From what I've read, Putin was so paranoid about someone using chemical weapons on him, he made it extremely difficult to get chemical weapons without permissions from the top of government. I'm not too worried about chemical weapons getting loose.

I've read that back in 1991 when Ukraine and other republics found themselves with nuclear arsenals the republics couldn't use the nukes because they didn't have the codes to activate them. Someone with physical possession will probably be able to figure out how to get around the locks eventually and/or they might have to make a dirty nuke instead of a thermonuclear weapon.

All of the end game solutions for Russia are bad, but Balkanization of Russia is probably the best solution for the rest of the world in the long run.

Even so, the bridge is already built. While the repair work certainly wouldn't be trivial, the hardest work has been done. I think Russia losing the war will present far more of a challenge to the repairs than anything else. The Russians got a few years use from their bridge-
better than the last Kerch bridge.

It's likely the war is going to end with Ukraine owning Crimea again and if that's the case the bridge may never get repaired.

 

[Fred42]

Putin's got nukes. NATO's got nukes. If Putin uses a nuke, it's MAD. And it triggers Article 5 because the fallout affects NATO countries. But if NATO gives in to Putin's demands because Putin has nukes, then Putin tries to see what he can get away with next. I'd say Georgia is the next to fall. If NATO allows that, then Putin rolls into the Baltics next. And then Poland. Until the rest of the world decides to stop him.

Poland wasn't part of the USSR. In 1945 Stalin took back the portion of Poland that had been in the Russian Empire until World War One. Invasion of Poland would not serve to reestablish the Soviet or Imperial Russian empires. If Putin wants to reestablish the Soviet empire, there are plenty of potential targets: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc. Of course some of these are NATO. Finland was part of the Imperial Russian empire but not the USSR. So plenty of potential targets.

 

[wdolson]

Poland wasn't part of the USSR. In 1945 Stalin took back the portion of Poland that had been in the Russian Empire until World War One. Invasion of Poland would not serve to reestablish the Soviet or Imperial Russian empires. If Putin wants to reestablish the Soviet empire, there are plenty of potential targets: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc. Of course some of these are NATO. Finland was part of the Imperial Russian empire but not the USSR. So plenty of potential targets.

The borders of all the countries in eastern Europe have changed quite a bit over time. Russia has owned most of modern day Poland at one point. Eastern European history is a very complex subject that is not well known in the west. I've been a history geek my entire life and it's an area where I'm weak.

Here is a site with a thumbnail sketch of the region over the last 1000+ years:
Territorial evolution of Poland

 

[DeepFrz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582024891871555585

And 10 lbs. of frozen fish.