Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

A sensible piece on the issues with Typhoon tranche 1, and the various issues

Giving RAF Typhoons to Ukraine Would Be a Very Expensive Symbolic Gesture

No options should be ruled out when it comes to helping Ukraine. But the idea of transferring UK fighter aircraft makes little military sense.

rusi.org

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My own personal opinion is that F16 are more likely. The Netherlands/Belgium/Denmark are all retiring their F16 fleets over the next 18-months and that is a better fit with Ukraine's needs, and also with Western concerns re escalation. But if takes the offer of the Typhoons to get the F16 released then that is worth a try. But UK on its own canot offer the Typhoon - this is a legal matter as Typhoon is a 4-nation aircraft so Germany + UK + Italy + Spain all have to agree before any aircraft leave their existing users.

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The mention of the F16N having upgraded / strengthened undercarriage for aircraft carrier use is a misunderstanding. There are some F16 with strengthened undercarriage but that is for other reasons and there is no way that variant will be on offer. I have no opinion on whether the F16 really is delicate in the undercarriage department, or whether that is a red-herring.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] If the concern is the condition of the airfield, slap on a top coat of smooth asphalt. [...

Again – no expert on this stuff, but maybe they would like to avoid that for OPSEC reasons. The Russians have spy satellites. Won't a top coat of new smooth asphalt or the machines that do the work be visible from space? And there also seems to be a fair deal of informants in Ukraine that report back to the Russian Dictator and his minions... But then again – maybe the newer asphalt can be spray-painted by helicopters or something so that the initial darker color from the new top coat will never be visible...

It also wouldn't surprise med if the Chinese Dictator is sharing spy satellite intel with the Russian Dictator...

 

[JRP3]

Won't a top coat of new smooth asphalt or the machines that do the work be visible from space?

Why would it matter if the Russians knew about a smoother runway?

 

[unk45]

And those F-16s that doesn't have this heavy duty landing gear – can't those be upgraded?...

But maybe this stuff is classified, so any people who might know in the thread may not be able to answer...

Actually only the Israeli ones have that. I was completely wrong about the F16N, which actually is a non-combat version anyway.
If needed it seems that some of the Israeli modifications might be adaptable, but there is only superficial information publicly available. Anyway, some other people here might well have a good idea what might be plausible @petit_bateau is one of those.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Why would it matter if the Russians knew about a smoother runway?

I was thinking that the Ukrainians use road bases (aka highway strips) at this stage of the war, but maybe they don't...

If they use road bases and the Dictator finds out where they are, then doesn't the Dictator and his minions have missiles that can do damage to gear/people/valuable infrastructure that the Ukrainians might have at such a road base?...

That was the thought...

Highway strip - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

EDIT:
Or if the Dictator finds out which fixed base UKR are stationing their F-16s at he might start targeting that base (assuming a future scenario where UKR has F-16s that is)...

 

[JRP3]

EDIT:
Or if the Dictator finds out which fixed base UKR are stationing their F-16s at he might start targeting that base (assuming a future scenario where UKR has F-16s that is)...

If they can see the status of the pavement they can see a bunch of F 16's parked as well.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Are we sure they would be parking them out in the open and not cover them up?

 

[nativewolf]

They can target the current air bases but they don’t. They target civilians to create terror . Evil sick bastards, may they rot in hell.

Almost assuredly the Ukraine military knows the plus and minus of the f16 and that is what they are after so to me it is a given that they foresee no issues and Ukraine knows something about air frames and jet engines. The greatest thing going for it is they are available at scale. One training class/program.

Good on UK for leading! Typhoons or not it forces the issue. With tanks it was super. Bravo

 

[Buckminster]

Strong words from TMCer Alex:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623727534079606785

I'm not a pacifist but I prefer to live in a world with a healthy number of them. What happened to them?

Elon is not a pacifist either but has been consistent on not building weapons.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I was thinking that the Ukrainians use road bases (aka highway strips) at this stage of the war, but maybe they don't...

If they use road bases and the Dictator finds out where they are, then doesn't the Dictator and his minions have missiles that can do damage to gear/people/valuable infrastructure that the Ukrainians might have at such a road base?...

That was the thought...

Highway strip - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Taiwan shows the F16 can land on highways:

Taiwan's Air Force Can Land an F-16 on a Highway. Does It Matter?

Taiwan isn’t the first nation to turn highways into runways.

nationalinterest.org

I wasn't able to find that they have made any special modifications to it, so presumably this is on standard landing gear.

 

[bkp_duke]

Strong words from TMCer Alex:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623727534079606785

I'm not a pacifist but I prefer to live in a world with a healthy number of them. What happened to them?

Elon is not a pacifist either but has been consistent on not building weapons.

I'm confused and must have missed something. Ukraine has already been using Starlink in the field. Did something change?

 

[petit_bateau]

I'm confused and must have missed something. Ukraine has already been using Starlink in the field. Did something change?

See Russia/Ukraine conflict

 

[petit_bateau]

NL motion

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623694588098625536

exchange ratio

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621808206103052288

 

[SageBrush]

Elon is not a pacifist either but has been consistent on not building weapons.

Certainly not if Tesla is footing the bill

 

[nativewolf]

See UK takes lead and Dutch can follow

 

[X Fan]

Re: tanks (paywall, apologize if this has been posted before)--

Tanks Aren’t Arriving in Ukraine Despite Promises From European Allies​

A reluctant Berlin is Kyiv’s biggest tank provider​

European readiness continues to be a problem

Tanks Aren’t Arriving in Ukraine Despite Promises From European Allies

After months of debate, few countries have committed to delivering equipment, leaving a reluctant Berlin as Kyiv’s biggest tank provider.

www.wsj.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Strong words from TMCer Alex:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623727534079606785

I'm not a pacifist but I prefer to live in a world with a healthy number of them. What happened to them?

Elon is not a pacifist either but has been consistent on not building weapons.

How is the world a better place with "a healthy number" of pacifists?

I wonder what this planet would have looked like today if pacifists would have had the final say in the US/UK during WWII... A Europe controlled by Nazi-Germany armed with nuclear weapons?... And large parts of the Pacific and the Eastern Asian continent controlled by some Fascist Dictatorship version of WWII Imperial Japan – also probably armed with nuclear weapons... How could that possibly be a better world?...

Another thing I'm also wondering about: How many of the "pacifists" in the West are actually sleeper agents ultimately controlled by the Russian Dictator and his minions?...

 

[CatB]

How is the world a better place with "a healthy number" of pacifists?

I wonder what this planet would have looked like today if pacifists would have had the final say in the US/UK during WWII... A Europe controlled by Nazi-Germany armed with nuclear weapons?... And large parts of the Pacific and the Eastern Asian continent controlled by some Fascist Dictatorship version of WWII Imperial Japan – also probably armed with nuclear weapons... How could that possibly be a better world?...

I also wonder how many of the "pacifists" in the West that actually are sleeper agents ultimately controlled by the Russian Dictator and his minions...

Since some pacifists push for a diplomatic solutions, economic disincentives and foreign aid to avoid war, I would also view them as "the good guys" who make the world a better place.
The pacifists who turned the other way when Russia took Crimea should feel more than a little guilty when they see what Russia did to Mariupol, Bucha, etc. And Syria, tbh.

 

[JRP3]

Strong words from TMCer Alex:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623727534079606785

I'm not a pacifist but I prefer to live in a world with a healthy number of them. What happened to them?

Elon is not a pacifist either but has been consistent on not building weapons.

From investor thread:

In other news, Ukrainian minister pushes back against the narrative that Starlink functionality has been restricted:

Starlinks in Ukraine function without problems Minister of Digital Transformation

Mykhailo Fedorov, the Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, has commented on the information that the SpaceX company has allegedly limited the Starlink Internet access for Ukraine, which it uses to control drones.

news.yahoo.com

Quote: "Indeed, changes were made to geofencing a few months ago, but as of now, all the Starlink terminals in Ukraine work properly. Today we received the first few thousand of Starlinks as part of a 10,000 terminal batch from the German government."

Details: Fedorov called Ilon Musk "one of the biggest private donors of our future victory" and remarked that Starlinks help save thousands of lives, support the energy infrastructure of Ukraine, allow medics to carry out complex operations and provide Invincibility Centres with the Internet.

Quote: "The contribution of the SpaceX company is estimated to be more than US$100 million. We hope for further stable work by Starlinks in Ukraine."