Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Agreed, Ukraine are probably not put off by nukes. However, this is about the west. What do we do after one? After 10? Putin could be running out of non nuke options.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Tiger
Active Member
It is all just a big theatre. Nukes will be like covid, a great opportunity for some, and demise for others, and the show will go on. If it's not nukes, it will be something else, and they will rob you blind.
Biden made some sort of promise to Putin that something very unpleasant was going to happen to Russia if they used any nuclear weapons. He may have been somewhat specific in their private conversation, but no further details have been made public. I have seen speculation that the US would lend Ukraine the services of the USAF and USN for a while.
Xi Jingping has also made clear that there would be negative consequences from China if Russia used nuclear weapons. Modi from India has also expressed some hints that the relationship with Russia could get frosty if they decided to use nuclear weapons.
Even if Putin doesn't believe Joe Biden, he probably believe Xi and can't afford to have China join the sanctions against Russia. Russia is completely dependent on China for some materials they need to make weapons. Among them the chemical components for explosives and a number of electronic devices. China is also openly sending non-lethal aid to Russia such as body armor and boots.
China can afford to cut off Russia. Trade with Russia is a tiny percentage of their foreign trade, but Russia would be hurting if China cut them off. At that point Russia would only be able to rely on North Korea and Iran for military aid of any kind.
I think Putin is wise enough to know that using a nuclear weapon would turn out very bad for Russia. However if he is removed and one of the hot heads who don't really have any respect for the international order comes into power, we might see nuclear weapons used.
The world has seen this kind of arrogance before, though not as far as nuclear weapons. In the US there was a think tank in the 90s called the Project for a new American Century (PNAC) who believed that since the US was the only super power left, it should be free to do what it wants in the world and that was a good thing. These people heavily populated the George W Bush administration (2001-2009) and they are responsible for the invasion of Iraq. Iraq was supposed to be the first stop on a remaking of the Middle East.
It was a failure because they really didn't understand how military operations work and that while the US was the strongest force in the world in conventional combat, an occupying force can't stop an insurgency if it is allowed to get started. Between not bringing enough troops and complete incompetence from the occupying administration, the occupation was doomed a few months in.
Russia is guilty of some of that same sort of hubris starting this war, but Putin does know that there are lines he should never cross because getting into a conventional fight with the US doesn't turn out well for the other guy. There are people to Putin's right who believe the only reason they are losing in Ukraine is because they didn't use everything at Russia's disposal including full mobilization and nuclear weapons. If one of these clowns gets into power, he might try both of those and neither is going to go well. Putin has been operating on the world stage for 20 years and he has some ideas what will trigger the west, the others don't have the international experience Putin has and many have the arrogance that natural Russian superiority in all things (that's their belief, reality is different) will win the day.
He leaves Ukraine. It has always been his best option, the only option, the simple option that ends the war.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
And that would give him a good chance of staying in power?
Forgot to save links but my take on morning reading:
Reporting from Ukraine - interesting goings on in Crimea. The russians have still not shown the bridge between Kherson and Crimea and that is unusual. Ukraine tested 3 different flight paths into crimea with 1 drone / path - indication of another large attack.
Russians putting up naval barricades for Kerch bridge
Ukraine penetrations along the southern front picking up speed. @petit_bateau looks like UAF are just bypassing Robotyne with a strong salient to the north/east heading down the valley apparently.
In the north the axis towards Mariupul is seeing lots of action as is the axis south of Bahkmut. I still don't get the fascination with Bahkmut for Ukraine. However, they are making progress there.
Reporting from Ukraine - interesting goings on in Crimea. The russians have still not shown the bridge between Kherson and Crimea and that is unusual. Ukraine tested 3 different flight paths into crimea with 1 drone / path - indication of another large attack.
Russians putting up naval barricades for Kerch bridge
Ukraine penetrations along the southern front picking up speed. @petit_bateau looks like UAF are just bypassing Robotyne with a strong salient to the north/east heading down the valley apparently.
In the north the axis towards Mariupul is seeing lots of action as is the axis south of Bahkmut. I still don't get the fascination with Bahkmut for Ukraine. However, they are making progress there.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Bahkmut seems to be a pinning operation to prevent re-deployment.
petit_bateau
Active Member
For those interested in 4WD vehicles these folks also have a long history
and the Chonghar railway bridge appears to have taken a Storm Shadow hit on the north side embankment
and I'm sure Rutan will be watching performance with interest
and the Chonghar railway bridge appears to have taken a Storm Shadow hit on the north side embankment
and I'm sure Rutan will be watching performance with interest
petit_bateau
Active Member
Does look as if the Sivash rail bridge off the Chongar peninsular has been hit by something.
That is the square box below with X marks the apparent hit spot on the embankment area at the north end. The circled area to the east is the road bridges that were hit a few weeks ago. They were operating again within a day or so as the Russians had prepositioned floating bridge sections.
Storm Shadows have ordinarily been launched in pairs. This appears to have been a single.
That is the square box below with X marks the apparent hit spot on the embankment area at the north end. The circled area to the east is the road bridges that were hit a few weeks ago. They were operating again within a day or so as the Russians had prepositioned floating bridge sections.
Storm Shadows have ordinarily been launched in pairs. This appears to have been a single.
petit_bateau
Active Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
Re Wagner, maybe paywalled though free for me this time
www.newyorker.com
Loss rate uptick
Inside the Wagner Group’s Armed Uprising
How Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private military company went from fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine to staging a mutiny at home.
Loss rate uptick
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Yes it seems things may be heating up a bit on the two axis in the south. Ukraine is expending quite a lot of effort on the crimea region, on logistics, truck losses mounting finally (@wdolson). Shell starvation may finally be an issue for russia. If they can't suppress attacks with artillery than Ukraine will have a much faster go of things in August.
I note that Ukraine has not even attempted to do a breach of the main anti-tank lines/dragon teeth lines. Just attrition.
I note that Ukraine has not even attempted to do a breach of the main anti-tank lines/dragon teeth lines. Just attrition.
The British magazine The Economist supports Ukraine in the war. They say morale among Ukrainian soldiers is good, but a July 31 introduction to articles on the war included this unoptimistic summary on the current counter-offensive thrust: If it goes wrong, there may not be much left in reserve. “The die is cast,” as one Western official told us. The mood among Ukraine's allies is sombre at best. But as we noted in a piece published yesterday, the Russian manpower behind these lines has clearly been severely stretched by Ukraine’s strategy of attrition.
Tiger
Active Member
Unexplained explosions continue
Now the locals are getting into the act with some vigor, there were a lot of office set on fire.
Now the locals are getting into the act with some vigor, there were a lot of office set on fire.
This was widely reported but it's very interesting. First, I does look like HIMARS. Second the location allows very precise coordinates to be determined. Third, that's a long way. Forth....well why are they hitting something on this spit of land? Killing early warning systems/radar/ scouts for drones heading deep into crimea? Do drones fly over this area?
Or possibly the second one failed to hit the target due to being intercepted or a technical failure.
The Ukrainians are doing a good job interdicting Russian supply. Those bridges between Crimea and mainland Ukraine are hard to keep knocked out because they are over such shallow water.
Russia is becoming an unstable country. The mutiny by Prigozhin opened a door that rebellion was possible.
If the Russians try to increase conscription, they will be met with more attacks on recruitment centers and then it may spin out from there.
Just an overview of the rail lines servicing occupied Ukraine. Shows how important cutting the rail bridge from Crimea. Also shows why Tokmak is so well defended. Once that rail line is under artillery cover frombasically 5km away giving SPH 5-10KM distance from front to maintain mobility, the rail connection is further chopped and occupied Kherson is untenable as is 1/2 of Zap.
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