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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Video of the marine drone attacks on the Kerch Bridge has been released. One of the drones targeted the rail section, but the damage was much less severe than to the road section. Good learning experience for the next strike.


Since the last drone attack the Russians have been deploying booms around the bridges to prevent more attacks like this. The Ukrainians need submersible drones that can go under the floating booms.
 
Or a pilot drone that opens up a pathway through the booms.

That might work, but it might also alert the Russians. It's fairly easy to run a breach wire through the booms, which would set off an alarm if the wire was broken. It's more stealthy to go under.

One idea I thought of was to take something akin to the charge line from a MICLIC and wrap it around one of the support columns before setting it off. If the blast doesn't shear off the support column it would probably do significant damage to the column. Probably bad enough to require it be replaced.

As we saw from the first attack in the bridge, pulling damaged roadway sections and replacing them is not that difficult, but a badly damaged support column would require the remains of the old column be removed and an entire new column put in, which would be a more extensive repair.

A MICLIC line has 1750 pounds of C4.
 
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That might work, but it might also alert the Russians. It's fairly easy to run a breach wire through the booms, which would set off an alarm if the wire was broken. It's more stealthy to go under.

One idea I thought of was to take something akin to the charge line from a MICLIC and wrap it around one of the support columns before setting it off. If the blast doesn't shear off the support column it would probably do significant damage to the column. Probably bad enough to require it be replaced.

As we saw from the first attack in the bridge, pulling damaged roadway sections and replacing them is not that difficult, but a badly damaged support column would require the remains of the old column be removed and an entire new column put in, which would be a more extensive repair.

A MICLIC line has 1750 pounds of C4.
That seems like a good idea, though it would be a bit more complex to execute. I was thinking if two or three drones detonated near simultaneously against a single pier that might be fairly effective. But that would also be more complex to pull off.
 
Video of the marine drone attacks on the Kerch Bridge has been released. One of the drones targeted the rail section, but the damage was much less severe than to the road section. Good learning experience for the next strike.

"Including Black Sea"

Ukraine is nimble, Russian federation is top-down, reactive. Easily embarrassed with clever attacks which chip away at Putin's reputation.

Ukrainian demo attacks on military objectives away from Ukraine is possible. Would need clandestine (containerised) transport, but Ukraine did that with the truck bomb to Kerch bridge. Could even be synchronised multiple attacks far away (Kaliningrad & Vladivostok?).

Russian Federation might consider using/wasting resources for other parts of Russian Federation coasts. Might keep Russian Marines, rare surveillance equipment far from Ukraine.

Might embolden China to view Russia & its neighbours as a target for its influence.
 
The climate is warmer overall, but there are still record cold winters too. Just scanning some statistics Berlin has had three years with snowfall levels in the top 10 in totals since 1886 in the last 20 years. 2007 was 118.5 inches, 2017 was 127.6 inches, and 2019 was 117.7 inches. I would expect the data to be in cm, but it is what it is
Just a small observation: all things being equal, a warmer than usual winter will usually produce more actual snow than what would be considered “normal“ for an area that historically gets snow in the winter time.
 
That seems like a good idea, though it would be a bit more complex to execute. I was thinking if two or three drones detonated near simultaneously against a single pier that might be fairly effective. But that would also be more complex to pull off.

Neither would be easy.

Just a small observation: all things being equal, a warmer than usual winter will usually produce more actual snow than what would be considered “normal“ for an area that historically gets snow in the winter time.

True that can happen in places that can get too cold to snow.

Though the extreme south is not one of these regions. It does snow in Crimea, but average low temperatures are only in the high 20s F in the coldest part of winter, and temperatures rarely get below 20 F in extreme weather. In the depth of winter temps sometimes get into the 50s F.
Sevastopol Winter Weather, Average Temperature (Ukraine) - Weather Spark

I think Perun did a video on fighting in cold weather last winter. He used the US Army manual on weather combat as a reference and it defines 4 different temperature ranges and the dangers posed by them. The warmest range is temperatures from just below freezing to a bit above freezing that is called wet-cold. In those temperatures there are dangers from hypothermia because people get wet and then can't warm up. Good water protective clothing is essential to prevent cold injuries.

The next range down, I think from about 10 F to 25 F is dry cold and isn't as dangerous as wet-cold because it's less likely you're going to get wet, but frostbite does become a potential problem. Below 10 F things start getting more dangerous again.

The classic Russian winter has these brutally cold temperatures below 10 F for long stretches of time. Just trying to prevent freezing to death consumes everyone's thoughts and energies.

Fighting in cold-wet conditions is very possible and has been a common combat condition in European wars for centuries, even more common in more modern wars when better protective equipment was available. In those sorts of conditions, the weather goes between snow and rain for most of the winter. Crimea probably has had times when it has gotten too cold to snow, but it's probably not that common. It's especially rare in Sevastopol.
 

"​

Ukrainian prisoners of war say they were tortured at Russian prison​

Published 11 hours ago

By Hugo Bachega
BBC News, Ukraine

Former Ukrainian captives say they were subjected to torture, including frequent beatings and electric shocks, while in custody at a detention facility in south-western Russia, in what would be serious violations of international humanitarian law.

In interviews with the BBC, a dozen ex-detainees released in prisoner exchanges alleged physical and psychological abuse by Russian officers and guards at the Pre-Trial Detention Facility Number Two, in the city of Taganrog. [...]

Their allegations include:
  • Men and women at the Taganrog site are repeatedly beaten, including in the kidneys and chest, and given electric shocks in daily inspections and interrogations
  • Russian guards constantly threaten and intimidate detainees, some of whom have given false confessions which were allegedly used as evidence against them in trials
  • Captives are constantly left under-nourished, and those who are injured are not given appropriate medical assistance, with reports of detainees dying at the facility
[...]

[Seredniak] was then beaten, he said, and brought to a room in the prison's basement, where he met a twenty-something Ukrainian fighter. Seredniak told me the man was curled, holding his hands, apparently in pain, and said officers had inserted needles under his fingernails. [...
"

 
Who's the second one? …
▪️Two generals passed away on the same day in russia ▪️

First, Governor of Khabarovsk Krai, Mikhail Degtyarev, announced the death of Lieutenant General Gennady Zhidko, former commander of the Eastern Military District and former Deputy Minister of Defense. He passed away at the age of 58 in Moscow after a “prolonged illness.”

It was under his command that russian forces were pushed out of the Kharkiv region and displaced from Kherson. Zhidko had taken over from Surovikin.

Later, information emerged about the passing “from illness” of former head of russia's Federal Protective Service in the Caucasus, Lieutenant General Gennady Lopyrev. He had been serving time in a corrective colony in the Ryazan region for bribery. He had not admitted his guilt.


https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1691906098217832765?s=46&t=jAgIffgC68qiSzAyPG4hEQ
 
Who's the second one? This Zhidko dude? If so, then who's the first one?


EDIT:

And here's that medal that little Putie pinned on him before his demise (the second tweet below).

Every war has it's most memorable aspect. For WWII it was probably the defense of Stalingrad. In Korea the battle of the Chosin Reservoir. This war has to be stolen washing machines.
 
▪️Two generals passed away on the same day in russia ▪️

First, Governor of Khabarovsk Krai, Mikhail Degtyarev, announced the death of Lieutenant General Gennady Zhidko, former commander of the Eastern Military District and former Deputy Minister of Defense. He passed away at the age of 58 in Moscow after a “prolonged illness.”

It was under his command that russian forces were pushed out of the Kharkiv region and displaced from Kherson. Zhidko had taken over from Surovikin.

Later, information emerged about the passing “from illness” of former head of russia's Federal Protective Service in the Caucasus, Lieutenant General Gennady Lopyrev. He had been serving time in a corrective colony in the Ryazan region for bribery. He had not admitted his guilt.


https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1691906098217832765?s=46&t=jAgIffgC68qiSzAyPG4hEQ

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, but this is Russia we're talking about. Putin might be getting rid of the people he suspects were involved in the mutiny.

Every war has it's most memorable aspect. For WWII it was probably the defense of Stalingrad. In Korea the battle of the Chosin Reservoir. This war has to be stolen washing machines.

At least the ridiculousness of it is notable.
 



 
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Looks like he misspoke based on a panel discussion (by making it seem like something more formal and representative of NATO position than it was), but then he also suggested that there were some unnamed NATO members that brought it up. Given there are some Russian friendly members (and heck even in US there are some people that have continually pushed permanently ceding territory) it's not necessarily a surprise some in NATO think that.