If you are interested in the currency side of things I suggest reading the entire post below
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Russians on cluster munitions: the colonel writing this was wounded and writes from a hospital bed. He admits russia has and uses cluster munitions and by using them lost an opportunity to divide the west on this issue. Since they were revealed to be frauds he now says they need to stop talking and starting doing something about it like finding counter battery solutions. He also blames the russian war reporters for revealing info on the success of strikes by Ukraine when they post pictures of impacted areas claiming (fraudulently) that the target was civi when it was clearly not. Instead Ukraine gets great battlefield assessment damage reporting. Basically..terrible Opsec. Russia is getting better about this though.
Other post today on the topic of Germany having stockpiles of old HIMARS cluster munitions waiting to be destroyed. That could be a great addition to the Ukrainian efforts.
Other post today on the topic of Germany having stockpiles of old HIMARS cluster munitions waiting to be destroyed. That could be a great addition to the Ukrainian efforts.
So f16 slowly moving forward. Personally I was much more excited to see the additional air defense systems being delivered. @petit_bateau is out this week but I think Sweden selling Anti air missile to USA to go to Ukraine as interesting..not sure if this extends air shield or just replaces existing and diminishing weapons.
Economic collapse during wartime is rare, but highly stressed economies do often collapse immediately after the end of a war. Russia is setting themselves up for a Weimar Republic type hyperinflation starting the moment the war ends.
Cluster munitions will probably not end the war, but they are making life even more difficult for the Russians and I'm sure it's making their morale problems worse.
Ultimately Russia's will to fight needs to be broken. In WW I the troops in the field lost the will to fight and mutinied. In other wars the people back home lost the will to fight. Putin has cultivated political helplessness and apathy in the population, so it's taking a lot of work to get that engine started. At some point the population will probably wake up and it's unlikely many are going to be pro-war.
I'm sure Ukraine needs replenishment of the AD ammunition given to them by the west. They have had to use a lot of it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Specifically for this action, no. They have aggressively used similar processes with trading partners for the last two years, and to a lesser extent since around 2011. This seems directed mostly towards the state owned and private companies that have used foreign incorporated entities to minimize repatriation. The majority of such entities have been in Cyprus, with many avoiding sanctions fairly easily.
I am not positive that this is the primary objective of these actions, but it seems to be the largest pool of FX they’ve not yet tapped.
I quite firmly believe the opposite on war economies, they almost always collapse. Japan had collapsed in wwii, Germany had collapsed in 2017/8, again in wwii, all the allied nations were only kept Afloat by the USA In wwi and wwii. Iraq collapsed fighting Iran, England was going bankrupt fighting USa in 1778, France was bankrupt many times by constant wars. On and on, far more interesting to find a country that didn’t go bankrupt fighting a prolonged war.
BitJam
Active Member
I agree. Decades ago I read the Rise and Fall of Great Powers by Paul Kennedy which has the central thesis:
Great Power ascendancy (over the long term or in specific conflicts) correlates strongly to available resources and economic durability; military overstretch and a concomitant relative decline are the consistent threats facing powers whose ambitions and security requirements are greater than their resource base can provide for.
If true this does not bode well for Russia in their current war as long as Ukraine's Western allies stay the course.
Japan and Germany in WW II ended the war because they ran out the ability to fight. In the case of Germany they ran out of territory. In 1918 Germany quit fighting because they were having rebellions among the troops.
The economies were sort of shot by the end of the war for Japan and Germany, but Allied bombing had completely flattened many cities and bombed out a lot of industries. The physical infrastructure was destroyed. That isn't possible in this war. Ukraine doesn't have the means to physically destroy much Russian industry and while Russia has done a lot of damage to Ukraine, the bulk of Ukraine's supplies are coming from outside the country.
War can stress economies incredibly far, but due to the emergency nature of the war the economies always seem to hold together, even if they are tied together with duck tape and bailing wire by the end of the war. The more stress an economy takes during the war, the worse the after effects will be. A number of countries have suffered hyperinflation shortly after a war ended. Hungary's post WW II was the worst in history. Other forms of chaos, economic and otherwise, have plagued countries just after wars.
They just don't seem to see the collapse happen during the war.
Russia imploded and the Berlin wall came down, when Russia tried to match military spending with the USA. Essentially bankrupted them.
Tiger
Active Member
The cold war was not a hot war, it was more an economic war.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Re: F-16s...
Allegedly:
According to people with some degree of insight, there are currently no available Gripen aircraft for many and complicated reasons that are not suitable for public publication. At least not without negatively affecting Sweden's defense capabilities. It is publicly known that many Gripen C/Ds are currently being rebuilt with an extensive mid-life update to extend their operational life and to give them additional capabilities. The upgrades are ongoing during the period 2023 – 2029.
The upgrades mean that an unknown number of aircraft are more or less disassembled at the factory and not flyable, and there are thus no Gripens left that are not needed in the Swedish Air Force.
One might think that if SWE could send 10% of it's tanks, all of which were part of the 'war organization', then SWE can send 10% of it's Gripens. But that is an opinion and does not include an overall analysis of Swedish defense capability and defense planning, which of course are not available to the public. For example, Sweden is notoriously weak on the air defense side in favor of the Gripen as air defense, and shell protection - including air defense - is perhaps more urgent for Swedish defense given that Russia is grinding down its armor in Ukraine right now, than the army's combat forces are? The Russian Air Force is more intact than the Russian Army.
Sweden as a Full member of NATO could perhaps allow for a different assessment.
Allegedly:
According to people with some degree of insight, there are currently no available Gripen aircraft for many and complicated reasons that are not suitable for public publication. At least not without negatively affecting Sweden's defense capabilities. It is publicly known that many Gripen C/Ds are currently being rebuilt with an extensive mid-life update to extend their operational life and to give them additional capabilities. The upgrades are ongoing during the period 2023 – 2029.
The upgrades mean that an unknown number of aircraft are more or less disassembled at the factory and not flyable, and there are thus no Gripens left that are not needed in the Swedish Air Force.
One might think that if SWE could send 10% of it's tanks, all of which were part of the 'war organization', then SWE can send 10% of it's Gripens. But that is an opinion and does not include an overall analysis of Swedish defense capability and defense planning, which of course are not available to the public. For example, Sweden is notoriously weak on the air defense side in favor of the Gripen as air defense, and shell protection - including air defense - is perhaps more urgent for Swedish defense given that Russia is grinding down its armor in Ukraine right now, than the army's combat forces are? The Russian Air Force is more intact than the Russian Army.
Sweden as a Full member of NATO could perhaps allow for a different assessment.
Ukraine continued its offensive but lost several Leopard 2 tanks, infantry vehicles and soldiers when a convoy going in to attack was hit by artillery and drones. Ukraine was able to gain ground east of Urozhaine despite the losses.
petit_bateau
Active Member
This image is the best I have seen of the rail bridge ruins near Kherson over the Dnipro River
This map with the positions of a number of the recent USV engagements show how extensive naval engagements are all over the Black Sea, right out to the Turkish 12nm territorial limit.
EU funds switched to Ukraine / Moldova
www.railfreight.com
Grain via Latvia
www.railfreight.com
KIA - WIA
www.theguardian.com
This map with the positions of a number of the recent USV engagements show how extensive naval engagements are all over the Black Sea, right out to the Turkish 12nm territorial limit.
EU funds switched to Ukraine / Moldova
EU allocates funds meant for Russia-Belarus to Ukraine and Moldova
A considerable amount of EU funds previously destined for Russia and Belarus will now be allocated to Ukraine and Moldova, decided the EU Commission. Specifically, 135 million euros from the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument, planned initially for “Interreg...
Grain via Latvia
Latvia says it could start exporting Ukrainian grain in September
The discussion concerning the possibilities of exporting Ukrainian agricultural products keeps unfolding. Latvia insists that the Baltic route can work and that Latvian railway infrastructure and ports could accommodate between half and one million tons of grain volumes annually. Moreover...
KIA - WIA
Battlefield deaths in Ukraine have risen sharply this year, say US officials
US estimates almost 500,000 Russian and Ukrainian military casualties in fighting in the conflict so far
www.theguardian.com
Last edited:
