For our many brits: I guess after 2 WWs you just can't help yourself when you get a chance to help blow up a sub.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I think it's highly unlikely that we'll see horses play an active role in the Russian war effort. Probably very few of the horses on Russian farms see much use in farming operations. I'm sure it's pretty similar to situation in the US, where there are a few draft horses, but by and large, the majority of horses exist for recreation(or are wild).
It may just be that the Russians are selling diesel abroad creating a shortage at home, but it's also possible that they are exporting the diesel (which can be moved to the export terminal by pipeline) because they don't have the means to move it to the distribution points within the country and within Ukraine.
The Russian oil wells continue to pump out oil, and the refineries continue to produce distillate products. Even if there is demand within Russia and among the army, if they don't have the means to move all that fuel to the end points (due to a shortage of trucks and oil rail cars), they have to do something with the diesel they are producing.
Russia is so corrupt and so broken, it is possible that it's being sold abroad to make cash, but it's also possible that it's being sold abroad to keep from overflowing the storage facilities.
According to this about 300-400K of them are being raised for meat.
Russia invests in horsemeat production
Russia Number of Livestock: Farms: Horses | Economic Indicators | CEIC
That still leaves about a million. In the US horses are used for ranching and for recreation for the most part. Horses are an important element in ranching in the west. Some smaller farms in the US have gone back to using horses for farm work because it's more economical. Keeping horses for recreation is mostly an upper middle class thing.
Russia doesn't have anywhere near as big a middle class as the US. Most of the non-meat horses in Russia are almost certainly farm animals used for farm work. Rural Russia is very poor. A level of poverty that is essentially unknown in the west. Horses are cheaper.
You don't need draft horses for hauling carts. Draft horses can haul a larger cart, but any horse can be used for the purpose. Teams of horses have often been used for larger loads.
I mentioned this to my partner and she said she read something that a Russian general had suggested they start using horses to move supplies.
It is completely irrelevant but horses in the USA are almost entirely (with the exception of niche users like Amish religious groups) just plain ol recreation- horse shows, horse trail ride, fox hunt, polo, etc. It adds up. More horses now in the USA than when the first car was invented. The advantage of lots of space. Good horses are kept behind oak board fencing and we sell that product thus, are self interested in the horse world.
Back to the war: Trent ( who is just parroting on twitter the much more thorough work of War on the Rocks folks and many others- from pre war) made a lot of predictions a year and a half ago about the lack of trucks and tires and how that would destroy russian logistics. In the meantime russia has kept at it, they ran out of artillery shells but not trucks, they ran out of fuel occasionally because of corruption but even then managed to refuel a 50 mile convoy outside Kiev and turn it around to avert disaster. My hot take the question of "if trucks matter" is watching Ukraine's loss figures. Ukraine doesn't focus on trucks, if they really focused on trucking you'd see reams of trucks show up on the daily loss rate. So far they are mostly collateral losses at depots, and they have been targeting those. If russia needs 5,000 oil tankers they can be driven across the border tomorrow from China or Iran. Neither would blink selling them and neither would miss them and it would not cost $ that matter ($1bln for those new here in the USA). The russia industry created 65000 trucks last year. Losses from the war in Ukraine are just dust on a gnat. But anyway how much fuel does ag need in Russia?
Here is where it goes to guess work. Say 4 gallons per acre, I bet land under cultivation has slipped a bit so lets say 150,000,000 acres. 600,000,000 gallons. It's not that much. Most of the use of diesel is going to be trucking products from the farm to manufacturing facilities/ports and there I have no idea. Calculate the number of tons of ag products and figure some average miles to a rail head (50?). Ag is just under a $100bln revenue item for russia. The wheat harvest started back in May and runs til early August. So that's done. So is barley.
That will leave seed oils (sunflower, rapeseed, etc) and fruits and veggies (apple, pumpkins, etc), and a few grains/legumes such as corn and soybean, lentils and for Vodka..potatoes. I would think most of the potatoes are harvested already (takes 4 months so - may june july august). I don't see the major push there, in the USA corn and soybeans drive a huge fall harvest business but those crops don't matter too much in russia. Of course they could be seeing issues with the planting of winter wheat crop but I don't think they'll let the war disrupt that and I would have thought it would already be planted (only 4 weeks from not being able to plant).
In terms of $ the wheat crop is the major export earner and the largest crop and it's in (harvested) and likely mostly shipped to storage and processors close to rail. They did that without anyone squawking about lack of trucks or lack of fuel. That's most of the work and (guessing here) but one could assume a 30 mile trip to a rail head and put 30 tons on a truck and figure out how many trucks they needed to move the 70 million tons of wheat to rail heads. Then look at all the other ag products combined and I think you'll see about the same volume. It's done for now.
The USA analyst who look at the logistics needs of others do so from a horrible perspective- that of the USA which is just incredibly bloated. Trent went so far as to say russia would run out of truck tires, he made a lot of other predictions too and if you believed everything than you'd have thought russia would have collapsed months ago. They forward supplied armies, built fortifications, made several lateral army moves, and for the average russian not much has changed. We've discussed this before but nothing has changed and the oh the russian logistics are about to fail mantra from Trent gets old as it has consistently proven to be wrong. Going to edit that Trent is not a logistics specialist. His last job was the head of a small tiny team on tiny dept in a non pentagon office looking quality control from the Texas area arms manufacturers. I further suspect that he got his job because of his father. He never commanded field troops, he was never in charge of understanding russian logistics capabilities, to the best of my knowledge he's never been to russia or ukraine. Mick Ryan, Mark Hertling, and Ben Hodges don't sit around telling you russian logistics will collapse tomorrow.
Again, when Ukraine can find nothing else worth shooting than a truck in rear logistics than you'll know the logistics are about to collapse. I am sending large over the road transport semi tractors one mile across hay fields all of this month, we'll move from 30-60 tons a day, every day. If we can do it the russians will figure it out.
Back to the war: Trent ( who is just parroting on twitter the much more thorough work of War on the Rocks folks and many others- from pre war) made a lot of predictions a year and a half ago about the lack of trucks and tires and how that would destroy russian logistics. In the meantime russia has kept at it, they ran out of artillery shells but not trucks, they ran out of fuel occasionally because of corruption but even then managed to refuel a 50 mile convoy outside Kiev and turn it around to avert disaster. My hot take the question of "if trucks matter" is watching Ukraine's loss figures. Ukraine doesn't focus on trucks, if they really focused on trucking you'd see reams of trucks show up on the daily loss rate. So far they are mostly collateral losses at depots, and they have been targeting those. If russia needs 5,000 oil tankers they can be driven across the border tomorrow from China or Iran. Neither would blink selling them and neither would miss them and it would not cost $ that matter ($1bln for those new here in the USA). The russia industry created 65000 trucks last year. Losses from the war in Ukraine are just dust on a gnat. But anyway how much fuel does ag need in Russia?
Here is where it goes to guess work. Say 4 gallons per acre, I bet land under cultivation has slipped a bit so lets say 150,000,000 acres. 600,000,000 gallons. It's not that much. Most of the use of diesel is going to be trucking products from the farm to manufacturing facilities/ports and there I have no idea. Calculate the number of tons of ag products and figure some average miles to a rail head (50?). Ag is just under a $100bln revenue item for russia. The wheat harvest started back in May and runs til early August. So that's done. So is barley.
That will leave seed oils (sunflower, rapeseed, etc) and fruits and veggies (apple, pumpkins, etc), and a few grains/legumes such as corn and soybean, lentils and for Vodka..potatoes. I would think most of the potatoes are harvested already (takes 4 months so - may june july august). I don't see the major push there, in the USA corn and soybeans drive a huge fall harvest business but those crops don't matter too much in russia. Of course they could be seeing issues with the planting of winter wheat crop but I don't think they'll let the war disrupt that and I would have thought it would already be planted (only 4 weeks from not being able to plant).
In terms of $ the wheat crop is the major export earner and the largest crop and it's in (harvested) and likely mostly shipped to storage and processors close to rail. They did that without anyone squawking about lack of trucks or lack of fuel. That's most of the work and (guessing here) but one could assume a 30 mile trip to a rail head and put 30 tons on a truck and figure out how many trucks they needed to move the 70 million tons of wheat to rail heads. Then look at all the other ag products combined and I think you'll see about the same volume. It's done for now.
The USA analyst who look at the logistics needs of others do so from a horrible perspective- that of the USA which is just incredibly bloated. Trent went so far as to say russia would run out of truck tires, he made a lot of other predictions too and if you believed everything than you'd have thought russia would have collapsed months ago. They forward supplied armies, built fortifications, made several lateral army moves, and for the average russian not much has changed. We've discussed this before but nothing has changed and the oh the russian logistics are about to fail mantra from Trent gets old as it has consistently proven to be wrong. Going to edit that Trent is not a logistics specialist. His last job was the head of a small tiny team on tiny dept in a non pentagon office looking quality control from the Texas area arms manufacturers. I further suspect that he got his job because of his father. He never commanded field troops, he was never in charge of understanding russian logistics capabilities, to the best of my knowledge he's never been to russia or ukraine. Mick Ryan, Mark Hertling, and Ben Hodges don't sit around telling you russian logistics will collapse tomorrow.
Again, when Ukraine can find nothing else worth shooting than a truck in rear logistics than you'll know the logistics are about to collapse. I am sending large over the road transport semi tractors one mile across hay fields all of this month, we'll move from 30-60 tons a day, every day. If we can do it the russians will figure it out.
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One more point here, Ukraine has clearly identified the weakness they want to attack in the russian army- artillery rather than logistics, manpower, tanks, APC/IFV, Trucks. They figured out that russia can't replace barrels fast enough and maybe knew that russian ammo stocks were limited. SBU and GRU of Ukraine have been lights out.
It is clear that this strategy is now bearing fruit, a very bitter harvest for Russia. The additives to steel that produce great barrels are expensive and have likely been skimmed off and sold by corrupt officials somewhere on the line. It impacts everything from tank armor to barrels. Metallurgical exams of recent russian armor is going to show this, newer t72 vs older USSR models. In the meantime russian barrels are wearing out, russia is pulling old tank to use as light artillery, and ammo supplies are dwindling and russia is begging NK for help. Second best army in the world indeed. This is what's going to break and if they keep at this through this winter we could see russia with almost no functioning SPG by April/May 2024. They have upped their game with drones but can that replace the soviet era preference for artillery and digging in?
It is clear that this strategy is now bearing fruit, a very bitter harvest for Russia. The additives to steel that produce great barrels are expensive and have likely been skimmed off and sold by corrupt officials somewhere on the line. It impacts everything from tank armor to barrels. Metallurgical exams of recent russian armor is going to show this, newer t72 vs older USSR models. In the meantime russian barrels are wearing out, russia is pulling old tank to use as light artillery, and ammo supplies are dwindling and russia is begging NK for help. Second best army in the world indeed. This is what's going to break and if they keep at this through this winter we could see russia with almost no functioning SPG by April/May 2024. They have upped their game with drones but can that replace the soviet era preference for artillery and digging in?
Another area that war on the rocks authors discussed was the vulnerability of russian rail to long term and slow destruction of rolling stock due to the lack of bearings for wheels. Bearings are made all over but it is a chokepoint.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You guys talking about the Russians sending horses to the front, well at least then their troops would be getting fed. It's a cold, hungry winter in the trenches. Any animals sent to Ukraine are on a one-way trip, just like the Roman IX Legion crossing into Scotland... the Picts ate every scrap, including their leather sandals.
Deadly drone arms race intensifies as Ukraine, Russia embrace the future of war
At this stage of a war that could last years more, both Ukraine and Russia are getting serious with their drone game: ramping up production while always looking to come up with new innovations.
kyivindependent.com
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Deadly drone arms race intensifies as Ukraine, Russia embrace the future of war
At this stage of a war that could last years more, both Ukraine and Russia are getting serious with their drone game: ramping up production while always looking to come up with new innovations.
Well Antonov is getting tooled up to produce some heavy lifter drones. Those should deliver a heavy punch, and at a long distance. Further, I heard remotely piloted drone fighter jets are capable of 20-g maneuvers. With modern thrust-vectoring, their agility will allow them to DODGE incoming missiles on their ingress to targets. They'll get to within AA-gun range, where swarms of them will be unstoppable (and cheap, too). Shoot down 10 or 12 maybe, but 2,000 incoming bogies? No way, say good-night Yorgi.
I think we are seeing the end of manned aviation, just my opinion. To me the future seems clear at this point and we are just on the cusp of real drone warfare. I fear the US navy in particular is poorly positioned to respond. Prior to WWII we had a president who made some prescient decisions, moving the navy from battleship to carrier based was well underway as was the delivery of better carrier aircraft. Our pilot training corps was gaining experience flying in a mercenary army organized (pre cia) by the president himself. Both proved key in winning the war. Well other things like damage control also played a huge role. Anyway, yeah I think you are correct though @petit_bateau is more knowledgable and says we may have a few more years yet.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Horse-mounted Polish cavalry were fighting German Tanks during the blitzkrieg of Aug 1939. B-29 Stratofortresses were dropping atomic weapons on Japan just 6 years later. War accelerates everything, technology not the least. If it wasn't for the U.S. Airforce developing the transistor and IC required for ICBMs, we might never have entered the digital age. Any modern iPhone now has more computing power in your hand than existed world-wide back then. Drones will be no different. Superior technolgy, once deployed and tested in battle, never looks back.
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One of my relatives in the WWII USN remained in Active Service after the war, but entered Naval Intelligence. As a very, very old man, he took me - the only male descendant in that line and the only family actively interested in global affairs - and showed me some files that, irrespective of how outdated by the developments and ravages of time that they were, he shouldn't have had in his possession, as they were non-declassified "Cosmic Top Secret" papers, representing the final distillation of his input as to how the post-War era should develop.
The crux of his arguments was that the era of floating battle stations soon would end, and that the US needed to develop stationary aircraft carriers: ie, permanent naval stations - especially island bases but also the careful cultivation of specific, more 'continental' allies - that would specialize in air defense.
Shortly thereafter the passage of the National Security Act of 1947 created the US Air Force and, although the Navy has by no means abandoned carriers, in terms of their Big Picture importance, the combination of the US's global air bases and (what he did not anticipate) our boomers play a far larger role than do the floaters.
With that background, I absolutely agree with your assessment of the coming sea change in aerial warfare; that drones represent the very, very near-term prime focus of innovation. Applaud or decry it, war in the Ukraine is the proving ground for this new era. As a fruitless mental exercise, one might contemplate trying to place a figure on how much the F-35 program has and will be costing, and apply that figure instead to drone development.
AGAIN! AGAIN!!! Hee hee.
Seriously, they must have things under control if it just got hit and they’ve already towed it away for repairs in a dry do- oh, hey… wait, where they gonna fix it??
Russian Combat Unit Using Horses to Covertly Supply Troops
A Russian combat unit deployed from Russia’s autonomous republic of Bashkiria to fight in Ukraine is using two horses to transport weapons and equipment to inaccessible front-line positions.
www.kyivpost.com
I wouldn't get too excited about a couple of Russian horses in Ukraine. The US military entered Afghanistan with a dozen horses not too long ago. Horses won't play a significant role in the Ukraine conflict unless things really go south and nukes get launched.
The true story of '12 Strong,' Horse soldiers were first to enter Afghanistan
In the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, there were three key stories that described the resolve of the American people, according to retired Lt. Gen. John F. Mulholland. The first had …
www.fayobserver.com
Kadyrov reported in "critical condition".
One should be skeptical of this claim as serious health issues have been reported about him in prior months as well. Yet with the recent termination of Prigozhin it is not out of the realm of plausibility.
One should be skeptical of this claim as serious health issues have been reported about him in prior months as well. Yet with the recent termination of Prigozhin it is not out of the realm of plausibility.
X Fan
Active Member
Spot on. The question to be answered in peacetime is whether entrenched bureaucracies (ie US Air Force) adopt quickly to the new reality or unfortunately delay transformation.
US artillery production accelerating:
-US plans to increase monthly production of 155 mm artillery shells to 100,000 in 2025
-was at 14,000 per month 6 or 8 months ago
-currently at 28,000 per month
Belarus’s Lukashenko proposes ‘three-way cooperation’ with Putin and Kim Jong-un – as it happened
-US plans to increase monthly production of 155 mm artillery shells to 100,000 in 2025
-was at 14,000 per month 6 or 8 months ago
-currently at 28,000 per month
Belarus’s Lukashenko proposes ‘three-way cooperation’ with Putin and Kim Jong-un – as it happened
