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my impression is that Putin hasn't ever been forced into doing anything he didn't want to...
Not recently but he was forced to be a Saint Petersburg taxi driver for a short time after the USSR fail and before he entered Saint Petersburg politics.
Im my opinion nobody knows what he might do if he is forced to acknowledge failure in Ukraine. Nobody knows what people close to him now might do. We are entering uncharted territory.
There appears to be internal sabotage in an increasing number of situations from railroads to Russian military infrastructure plus at least passive resistance from some conscripts. These events are closely analogous to events leading to the USSR breakup. Putin cannot be ignorant of some of these situations, if not all of them. Even if he wanted to be ignorant it would be hard since social media is constantly showing new evidence. There is even toying with Kaliningrad wanting out, maybe fake, but all the more infuriating for him.
Hence, I really think nobody has any idea what he might do. I try hard to avoid a bias in favor of my hopes.
OTOH, my Russian colleagues are now outspoken. Until the Ukraine invasion they were universally models of reticence. Frankly, during a decade working with Russian companies I never heard open criticism of anything official. Insinuations, yes, but only after considerable vodka sessions. Even then, quite circumspect.
Now these people are overt in social media, and even give provocative TV interviews. These events must be very worrisome to Putin. When combined with dearth of IT professionals, emigration of the professional class, desertion of even Oligarchs whose wealth derived almost totally from Gorbachev-Yeltsin-Putin State looting, Putin absolutely knows his 'grand bargain' of 2004 has totally collapsed.
Almost every vestige of Russian foreign exchange is tied back to Gazprom, Rosneft (Gerhard Schröder-Chairman), Lukoil, Novatek and Transneft. These companies are all subject to various sanctions, but also have major ties to BP, Exxon Mobil and others. Very few people focus on just how much these sanctions discomfit Putin directly. When recently four senior executives had 'murder-suicide' incidents of Gasprom and Novatek people...
The preceding paragraph is only to point out that Putin right now must be terrified. Much of the work of his reign has been devoted to cultivate people like Schröder, Rex Tillerson, and other oil and gas leaders while also cultivating politicians like Orban, Xi, Trump, Erdogan, Le Pen (both father and daughter), and others.
Now only this week Macron won in France and Golob in Slovenia. He did hold on to Hungary where Orban had had more time to dismantle democracy.
When Putin has lost Trump, Le Pen and Jansa recently he definitely is feeling a chill. Without much doubt even the dependable lackey Schröder will be gone soon. None of these are crucial, but they do add up.
Now it seems Finland and Sweden may join Nato. Ukraine is actually fighting when they'd rolled over so nicely in 2014.
Put all those things together and Putin is definably so terrified that he looks physically sick in public appearances.
Then General Lloyd Austin said: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine” .
With all of this I think Putin will not last for very much longer. Frankly I would not presume to imagine what comes next. He is enough of a realist to know there is 'no way out' for him. Will he care that Russia can survive without even more damage? Nobody really knows. We will find out soon, in my opinion.
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