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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Not everyday there are rumors like this one...

A passenger car from the Russian Dictator's so called 'Ministry of Defense' was allegedly blown up by some kind of loitering munition/ kamikaze drone in the Russian Bryansk Oblast between Minsk and Moscow yesterday. It is the type of car that is used to transport the Dictator's 'top brass', and as the Dictator's so called 'Minister of Defense' Shoigu had just been in Belarus and signed some agreement with his Belarusian counterpart, there are rumors that it was Shoigu who faced the consequences of his actions...

This information is not confirmed, but given that Russia tried to spread rumors - including through Russian state media such as Ria Novosti - that Ukraine's commander-in-chief had been killed, this may be UKR trolling as payback. As I understand it, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi has made an appearance since.

 
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IMO the replacement has one big advantage.

They didn't start the war, and they may take a realistic view of the chances of success.

The limitation is the replacement can't give away territory like Crimea, because that would undermine their political support.

However, if Ukraine takes back Crimea before Putin is toppled, then the replacement has a lot of room to negotiate.

Ukraine taking back Crimea, or looking like it will take Crimea, will probably result in Putin being toppled.

With Crimea off the table, Russia and Ukraine can probably negotiate a reasonable deal that will stick for a while.

I don't think a peace deal is the end of Russia being a threat, Russia will try to rebuild, but Ukraine can probably rebuild faster and will probably end the war in better shape.

So while Russia might not like being defeated and they may have ambitions of attacking Ukraine again in future, they reality is if they are defeated, they have to accept that for a while. Or of they don't, Ukraine may take back even more territory.

So the counter-offensive needs to be successful, because that really limit the options available to Russia.

We can't know for sure how this will play out, there are a lot of events that will likely happen in the coming months and they will shape how this war ends. Ukraine could take back all its territory but the war won't end completely until Russia quits. Russia may quit because it's unable to continue like collapse of the economy or the army rebels like it did in WW I, or it may quit because concerns at home force them to refocus what's left of the army on internal rebellions, or it could happen because new political leadership in Moscow sees continuing as pointless.

If the last scenario plays out, I would expect it highly likely that the new leadership tries to escalate before throwing in the towel.


I saw that. I have the feeling he's not going to be around much longer. Belarus is ripe for something like the color revolutions in Ukraine where the people decide they want to go in a new, European direction. Lukashenko dying without a clear, strong heir could be the trigger.

There is an author I saw interviewed about a year ago who has studied all the dictatorships of the last century. Some were more institutional dictatorships like China or the Soviet Union who replaced the head of the central committee when one died, and some are family dictatorships like North Korea or Syria, but strong man dictatorships where the country is ruled by a strong man who holds all the power tend to fall apart when the strongman dies or is removed.

Not everyday there are rumors like this one...

A passenger car from the Russian Dictator's so called 'Ministry of Defense' was allegedly blown up by some kind of loitering munition/ kamikaze drone in the Russian Bryansk Oblast between Minsk and Moscow yesterday. It is the type of car that is used to transport the Dictator's 'top brass', and as the Dictator's so called 'Minister of Defense' Shoigu had just been in Belarus and signed some agreement with his Belarusian counterpart, there are rumors that it was Shoigu who faced the consequences of his actions...

This information is not confirmed, but given that Russia tried to spread rumors - including through Russian state media such as Ria Novosti - that Ukraine's commander-in-chief had been killed, this may be UKR trolling as payback. As I understand it, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi has made an appearance since.


Interesting. We'll see how this plays out. Shoigu has been a pretty poor Minister of Defense, so it could be bad news if he gets replaced by someone more competent.
 
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Some speculation about this. Not my speculation, but unfortunately it doesn't seem that far fetched...

If the Belarusian Dictator dies, the Russian Dictator will probably try to take control of Belarus, and the question then is whether the Belarusian people will accept it or resist. Regardless, it will shift some of the Russian Dictator's focus (and that of his little serf minions), so that it is distributed over both Belarus and Ukraine. So hopefully a positive for Ukraine in some short term perspective.

A Russian illegal annexation of Belarus would, however, directly risk opening up a second northern front in Ukraine and additional attacks against, for example, Lviv.

The Russian Dictator and his little serf minions will probably try and hide the Belarusian Dictator's death. Instead of revealing the Belarusian Dictator's death, the Russian Dictator could first deploy forces into Belarus before making this demise public, along with some kind of forged document claiming to be the Belarusian Dictator's last will coupled with some fake formality that Belarus will now fully join the Russian Federation.

The Russian Dictator and his little serf minions are (allegedly) formalists, so even if everyone knows this is fake, they will be waving with some kind of phony piece of paper.

So let's hope the Belarusians dare to resist The Russian Dictator and his little serf minions. /end.
 
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But who operates fighter jets from dirt taxi ways?... I sincerely doubt even 'Crazy Ivan' does that (even though the Mig-29s allegedly can be operated that way)... 'We the Swedes' certainly do not. The Finns certainly do not either. So why in the world would the Ukrainians?!?... And if 'we the Swedes' and our dear, dear neighbors the Finns can plan around and solve the 'reventment-issue', then why wouldn't the Ukrainians be able to do the exact same thing?...
...] it appears Finland had built hard taxi strips to the sides of the highways they planned to use for air strips. [...] Building those sorts of aprons around highways so aircraft without taxi inlets can operate from the highway takes pre-planning. [...
Any reason why the Ukrainians wouldn't have done the exact same thing?...
The Soviet planes they inherited didn't need the pristine conditions the American jets. [...]

Some aircraft are not suited to flying from rough airfields and others are.

I am concerned that either the F-16s will be kept grounded due to constant attacks on the fields or operational losses are going to be high. I suspect the latter because the Ukrainians will likely be aggressive about flying despite airfield conditions.

1. This is just completely and utterly wrong! Why? Because you are omitting the ~32 Su-27s that the Ukrainian Air Force had at the start of this conflict.

Here we have a Ukrainian Su-27 taxiing:


It does not have any kind of FOD ingestion prevention system! Are you honestly assuming that the UKR Air Force would design a system where their ~32 Su-27s could not be used in a conflict with the Dictator's Russia?

2. Even if [1] above wasn't a FACT: The UKR Air Force started this war with some ~51 OBSOLETE ex-Soviet Mig-29s (as well as all their other OBSOLETE ex-Soviet Fighter jets). Are you seriously suggesting that the UKR Air Force would be completely incapable of planning in advance for the replacement of their OBSOLETE ex-Soviet aircraft?... They have been at WAR since 2014 for crying out loud!!!
 
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I haven't done any research on this, but from this video

it appears Finland had built hard taxi strips to the sides of the highways they planned to use for air strips. They can tow the aircraft over to dirt parking areas, but they don't fire up the engines unless they are sitting on a hard surface that looks like it's been swept to standards someone with severe OCD would approve of. Building those sorts of aprons around highways so aircraft without taxi inlets can operate from the highway takes pre-planning.

I don't know much about the specific design of the Gripen, but I do know that Sweden had the sort of war Ukraine is fighting now in mind when they designed the plane. I assume Saab took the problem of FOD into account.

Here is another article with a US F-16 pilot weighing in:
https://eurasiantimes.com/f-16-fighters-jet-sitting-ducks-for-russian-missiles-us-air-force/

The Ukrainians have probably been pushing for F-16s because they are the western jet they are most likely to get. At least three European air forces have surplus or will soon have surplus F-16s as they transition to F-35s. Those governments have probably been making noises for a while they would like to donate those to Ukraine if the US gave permission.

The Australian F-18s are tied up in some unknown red tape and Sweden has not made any noises that they have many Gripens to give away, so Ukraine campaigned for the fighter they could get.

The F-16 may be the most vulnerable plane to FOD out there. The inlet is only 30 inches above the ground (about 0.75 m). The inlets on the F-18 are about a foot higher (about 30 cm) and set back from where it is on the F-16.

I want Ukraine to be successful, but I am concerned Russia will be able to keep the F-16 bases shut down. They don't even need to hit the runway, just get debris on the runway. That could happen if a drone is shot down over the base. Keep up a flow of drones and Ukraine will have to keep shooting them down and will have to cob the runway again after every attack in case drone fragments of AD ammunition fragments got on the runway or hard stands where they warm up engines.

The Me-262 suffered a similar problem. When they got airborne and up to altitude they were hard to stop, but they were very vulnerable when landing and taking off so the Allies kept fighter patrols near the known Me-262 bases. The Germans had to operate piston engine fighters to try and protect the Me-262s when near the base. The Me-262 was particularly vulnerable when landing. The engines would flame out if the throttle was moved too quickly, so when slowed down for landing, the pilot was committed. If a P-51 jumped them, there was nothing they could do except pray they got down OK.

General Adolf Galland fell out with Hitler in early 1945 and ended up ending the war commanding a unit of Me-262s made up of other experienced pilots he could scrape together. Just before the end of the war he was jumped while landing and just managed to get his plane down and get out before it burned up. He finished the war in the hospital.

The Russians will put a maximum effort into trying to keep the F-16 bases as shut down as possible. They don't have the ability to have fighters loitering around the Ukrainian bases, but they have other things they can do. Along with constant harassing attacks they can also position their MiG-31s to watch the area around the known F-16 bases and shoot down anything they see near the base. The Russians have an extreme range air to air missile that is intended to be used against AWACS, but they have been using them to target Ukrainian aircraft.

Russia’s MiG-31 Crews Are Shooting At Ukrainian Pilots From A Hundred Miles Away—And The Ukrainians Can’t Shoot Back

If the US were drawn into the war, they would arrive with overwhelming air power flying from bases that are well out of range of Russian attack. Additionally because NATO has had decades to prepare, there are dozens of different airfields in Europe the NATO F-16s could operate from in the event of a war with Russia. All the facilities for F-16s and other NATO jets are already there and waiting.

Ukraine's air force is a very small effort compared to what the US can bring. The US can bring a force with a wide array of weapons to neutralize all Russian air defense and knock all Russian aircraft out of the sky anywhere near Ukraine within a couple of days. Ukraine is never going to have that kind of air power. Even if the west gave them enough aircraft and trained enough pilots from scratch they don't have the ground infrastructure to support such a force.

Ukraine's air force is like the raiding force that went into Belgorod oblast and the US's air forces are like a massive army. A raiding force can do damage and freak out the enemy, which that force did, but to take and hold ground you need numbers. In the air to gain and hold air superiority you need numbers. The Ukrainians can deny air superiority to the Russians, but they have no hope of gaining it themselves unless something happens to the entire Russian air force. Which is probably not going to happen.

The F-16 is a premiere light weight boxer, great in the ring, but maybe not so great in a street brawl. Ukraine needs a good street fighter that can fight dirty and work in unpredictable ways.
Are you really linking to Eurasiantimes articles to back up you're skepticism of F-16s usefulness to Ukraine? You're wrong on this issue, and you might as well back off from the F-16 bashing. This will be readily apparent when Ukraine begins making good use of them.

Word.
 
Not everyday there are rumors like this one...

A passenger car from the Russian Dictator's so called 'Ministry of Defense' was allegedly blown up by some kind of loitering munition/ kamikaze drone in the Russian Bryansk Oblast between Minsk and Moscow yesterday. It is the type of car that is used to transport the Dictator's 'top brass', and as the Dictator's so called 'Minister of Defense' Shoigu had just been in Belarus and signed some agreement with his Belarusian counterpart, there are rumors that it was Shoigu who faced the consequences of his actions...

This information is not confirmed, but given that Russia tried to spread rumors - including through Russian state media such as Ria Novosti - that Ukraine's commander-in-chief had been killed, this may be UKR trolling as payback. As I understand it, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi has made an appearance since.


The Dictator's so called 'Minister of Defense' Shoigu, seems to unfortunately have avoided injury. Allegedly.
 
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Vatnik soup is quite a collection of pro-Russian propaganda actors and attempts to explain. I believe this brings some perspective to the sometimes different views presented in this thread. I stumbled upon it on Twitter.
In case I'm not the only one who misunderstood, IIUC this is an anti-Russia site that contains links back to Twitter posts by Pekka Kallioniemi exposing pro-Russian propaganda and disinformation.
 
Some speculation about this. Not my speculation, but unfortunately it doesn't seem that far fetched...

If the Belarusian Dictator dies, the Russian Dictator will probably try to take control of Belarus, and the question then is whether the Belarusian people will accept it or resist. Regardless, it will shift some of the Russian Dictator's focus (and that of his little serf minions), so that it is distributed over both Belarus and Ukraine. So hopefully a positive for Ukraine in some short term perspective.

A Russian illegal annexation of Belarus would, however, directly risk opening up a second northern front in Ukraine and additional attacks against, for example, Lviv.

The Russian Dictator and his little serf minions will probably try and hide the Belarusian Dictator's death. Instead of revealing the Belarusian Dictator's death, the Russian Dictator could first deploy forces into Belarus before making this demise public, along with some kind of forged document claiming to be the Belarusian Dictator's last will coupled with some fake formality that Belarus will now fully join the Russian Federation.

The Russian Dictator and his little serf minions are (allegedly) formalists, so even if everyone knows this is fake, they will be waving with some kind of phony piece of paper.

So let's hope the Belarusians dare to resist The Russian Dictator and his little serf minions. /end.

The Belorussian people are more aligned with Ukraine than Russia. Lukashenko has stayed out of the war because he knows it would be the end of his reign if he tried. If the Russians try to take over Belarus, they will need a force of 185K to prevent an insurgency (almost certainly aided by the Ukrainians and NATO). If they don't bring that level of forces to the country, they will face an insurgency campaign they can't stop.

Russia would probably end up with a conventional shooting war in Ukraine combined with an insurgency in Belarus. They don't have an army big enough for the first war.

And I'm not worried at all about the Russians trying to invade Ukraine from Belarus. Russia already bases missile launchers there and it's not like Russia is suddenly going to have more missiles if they take over Belarus. The Ukrainians have fortified the entire border with Russia and Belarus. The attack on Kyiv last year was launched from Belarus, so the Ukrainians know that's a possible re-invasion vector.

Putin's best option with Belarus is to hope Lukashenko survives and Belarus stays nominally on his side. If Russia tries to take over or put a puppet in place who would order the Belorussian army into the war, Belarus would quickly devolve into rebellion and would be lost to the Russian cause.

In whatever scenario the Belorussian army is not going to be a significant factor. Russia already stripped them of ammunition last year. I think Russia took most of their heavy equipment too. The loyalty of the Belorussian army to Russia is non-existent so even if they didn't rebel, they would certainly not be willing to fight.

1. This is just completely and utterly wrong! Why? Because you are omitting the ~32 Su-27s that the Ukrainian Air Force had at the start of this conflict.

Here we have a Ukrainian Su-27 taxiing:


It does not have any kind of FOD ingestion prevention system! Are you honestly assuming that the UKR Air Force would design a system where their ~32 Su-27s could not be used in a conflict with the Dictator's Russia?

2. Even if [1] above wasn't a FACT: The UKR Air Force started this war with some ~51 OBSOLETE ex-Soviet Mig-29s (as well as all their other OBSOLETE ex-Soviet Fighter jets). Are you seriously suggesting that the UKR Air Force would be completely incapable of planning in advance for the replacement of their OBSOLETE ex-Soviet aircraft?... They have been at WAR since 2014 for crying out loud!!!

Except the Su-27 does have an FOD prevention system
Su-27: The History
 
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Except the Su-27 does have an FOD prevention system
Su-27: The History

Well. Dang it then.

But that still leaves this part:

"The Ukrainian Air Force started this war with some ~51 obsolete ex-Soviet Mig-29s (as well as all their other obsolete ex-Soviet Fighter jets). Are you seriously suggesting that the Ukraninan Air Force would be completely incapable of planning in advance for the replacement of their OBSOLETE ex-Soviet aircraft?... They have been at WAR since 2014 for crying out loud!"

Coupled with Taiwan using the F-16 from Road Bases.

Also coupled with Sweden and Finland using Western 4th gen Fighter Jets from Road Bases.
 
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