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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Equipment gets lost in war. American made vehicles tend to be more reliable on average, but they break down too. None of the Bradleys are new, all have been in Iraq and/or Afghanistan. Some were probably in the first Gulf War and later upgraded.
The media both west and Russian have made a big deal about the losses of a few high profile vehicles lost. That's going to happen. More will be lost before this is over. There are pictures of the tank graveyard at Normandy full of knocked out Shermans. If they reported then like the media is reporting now you'd think the Allies lost at Normandy considering all the tank losses.
The real story is that when western vehicles are knocked out crew survival is extremely high. Vehicles are easy to replace, crews aren't. Additionally when the Ukrainians have been able to recover knocked out vehicles, they can often repair them and put them back into the field. A number of those Bradleys and Leopards initially lost in the failed assault a few weeks ago were recovered and are being repaired. The ones that just hit mines and were immobilized are probably back in the fight now.
I looked at the video posted by Noel and some of the thread following. It looks like it was hit by an ATGM and abandoned and as of a day or two ago it's still sitting there. It's probably in the disputed zone between forces where each side is able to get infantry out there for short periods, but recovery vehicles can't get there.
The Russians don't have the caliber of ammunition the Bradley uses for it's Bushmaster, so even if they could get it running they couldn't use it in combat once the on board ammunition is exhausted.
I've seen Pacific Wrecks. April of 1944, my father was in New Guinea at the time, though it doesn't look like my father's unit was based as the same field at the time, though they may have been at another time. Those units kept moving up the north coast of New Guinea.
My father had skin cancer lesions that needed removing every couple of years for the rest of his life too. He was 100% Swedish ancestry, so he burned pretty easily.
Yup. There is pretty much no route where Russia can win at this point. The best they can hope for is a stalemate and that is remote.
Stranger and stranger
Putin says he tried but failed to oust Prigozhin after Wagner mutiny
President tells newspaper he met mercenary chief to negotiate terms for fighters’ continued participation in Ukraine warwww.theguardian.com
There is some part of this story that nobody outside the Kremlin knows. Putin seems to be bending over backwards to try and keep Prigozhin and Wagner onside even though Prigozhin openly rebelled against him. Something is keeping Prigozhin alive.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yes the reports of him moving in and out of Russia after the "rebellion" make me think Prigozhin still has something Putin fears even if Prig were to be taken out.
Have there been any sightings of Priggy since he was supposedly on his way to Belarus?
Edit: Answering my own question. In Denys' latest video he has a photo of Priggy in Belarus in a tent. Not as posh as his former homes but probably marginally better than a gulag cell or falling out a window.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
We in the West tend to think of 'dirty laundry' or Mafia type leverage but the simpler explanation is that Putin wants the 25k - 50k Wagner soldiers fighting his war in UKR. It follows than the Wagner military refusal to fold into the MoD is keeping Prig alive. I read the other day that Putin offered to keep Wagner intact, albeit with a Putin blessed leader. That tracks
bo3bdar
Member
Recent thread from ChrisO regarding shortage of even AK ammo for frontline troops. As usual, hard to know how extensive this might be, but the reports are from Russian sources.
One thing that I think a lot of long time planners are missing about this war- it's the first completely on-line war with video and information constantly leaking from the front because it cannot be stopped. There is 24 hour surveillance via satellites, simply for paying customers, no military needed. It's a really different war that doesn't follow normal military precepts.
threadreaderapp.com
and related:
threadreaderapp.com
One thing that I think a lot of long time planners are missing about this war- it's the first completely on-line war with video and information constantly leaking from the front because it cannot be stopped. There is 24 hour surveillance via satellites, simply for paying customers, no military needed. It's a really different war that doesn't follow normal military precepts.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Are Russian frontline troops suffering from a critical shortage of small arms ammunition and weapons? Recent videos and accounts from soldiers and their relatives suggest they are. Let's review the ...…
threadreaderapp.com
7/ It suggests two things to me:
First, that that Ukrainian strategy of hitting logistics routes and ammunition dumps with long-range fires is having severe effects on the Russians' ability to supply the front lines.
8/
9/ It should be remembered that Ukraine's counteroffensive is clearly currently in an attritional, probing phase where they are trying to degrade the Russian logistics and artillery, and identify weak points in the defences.
10/ Once they've achieved that to a satisfactory degree, I think we will be surprised – or maybe shocked – at how rapidly the Ukrainians deal with the demoralised, underfed and underequipped men remaining in the Russian trenches. /end
and related:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ In a video and interview, relatives of mobilised Russians fighting in southern Ukraine say that the Russian military "is not an army, but a prison" where men are sent to "die like cattle under...…
threadreaderapp.com
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The pic of Prig in the tent is pre coup attempt. FYI
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
My Great-Aunt died in Camp Sieben, Reichsgau Poznan, in 1944. Horendous work camp conditions, where death was the only way out.
My Uncle (my father's next older brother) is buried in Italy, near where he was killed in action in Sep 1944 when he stepped on a NAZI land mine. Ironically, had he survived the war, he would still have been too young to vote in the next Canadian Federal Election held in July '45.
After the failed Raid on Dieppe, the German SS was responsible for British and Canadian POWs. Instead of distributing Red Cross relief supplies sent to the troops, they were starved and worked to death building the Altantic Wall. When the 1st Cdn Divison finally liberated the Netherlands in Feb-Apr '45, they took no German prisoners. Waffen-SS troops either turned tail and ran, or died in place when the Canadians came to town. My neighbor rode with the Strathcona's through Holland (M4 Sherman).
We of a certain age and background all have family stories like this. I wonder how many Ukrainian children have been kidnapped, relocated to Siberia, and are being 're-educated' or worked-to-death in the East right now. Personally, I'm prepared to spend a few GDP points to liberate them.
What I'm not prepared to do, however, is to sit by quietly while never-been-there never-done-that's theorize about peace like it some bored-game of tiddlywinks, while boggling at the price of war. I know the cost of war ↑↑↑. Do they know what's at stake if we don't fix this? Or is it just too horrible to contemplate the outcome?
petit_bateau
Active Member
Russia - Iran relationship stressy
Gripen ongoing .... or is it other things ?
but in any case USA still foot dragging on F16 ...
www.politico.com
Gripen ongoing .... or is it other things ?
but in any case USA still foot dragging on F16 ...
Europe still waiting on U.S. to formally approve F-16 training
A coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, formally agreed to train Ukrainians to fly F-16s and potentially other fighter aircraft at the NATO summit.
www.politico.com
Great post from general Ryan as usual
Russia - Iran relationship stressy
Gripen ongoing .... or is it other things ?
but in any case USA still foot dragging on F16 ...
Europe still waiting on U.S. to formally approve F-16 training
A coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, formally agreed to train Ukrainians to fly F-16s and potentially other fighter aircraft at the NATO summit.
Russia doesn't have access to the electronics to make the Su-35s anymore and they don't have the money to give Iran a refund. Or at least they don't want to spare it. The post above from @bo3bdar has a number of accounts relayed by ChrisO that troops in Ukraine are not getting paid and haven't been paid in several months. Russia is holding the economy together, but it's wobbling.
navguy12
Active Member
Regarding your observation of the 24 hour surveillance; since this war has started with that unique attribute I always wonder if the whole obscene “central government“ (areas of Poland under Nazi rule in WW2) would’ve still happened.Recent thread from ChrisO regarding shortage of even AK ammo for frontline troops. As usual, hard to know how extensive this might be, but the reports are from Russian sources.
One thing that I think a lot of long time planners are missing about this war- it's the first completely on-line war with video and information constantly leaking from the front because it cannot be stopped. There is 24 hour surveillance via satellites, simply for paying customers, no military needed. It's a really different war that doesn't follow normal military precepts.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Are Russian frontline troops suffering from a critical shortage of small arms ammunition and weapons? Recent videos and accounts from soldiers and their relatives suggest they are. Let's review the ...…
and related:
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ In a video and interview, relatives of mobilised Russians fighting in southern Ukraine say that the Russian military "is not an army, but a prison" where men are sent to "die like cattle under...…
Can you stop constantly and consistently making false claims?
Military Watch Magazine states a new batch of Su-35 delivered end of June with additional batches in production
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Says the person who constantly and consistently makes false claims. 
Military Watch Magazine – Bias and Credibility
Military Watch Magazine – Bias and Credibility
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
FYI from an updated article just posted yesterday, more up to date than the source you are citing, plus it actually cites Iranian officials to get the story from the Iranian side (instead of a Russian PR piece which obviously will spin things as most favorable to their own image):
"In Azimi's piece, he mentioned that Iranian Brig. Gen. Hamid Vahedi confirmed the completion of all payments for Russia's Su-35 fighters. These jets were expected to be in Tehran's possession this year, yet the government is now uncertain if they will ever arrive. Azimi reported that Iran expected the aircraft to be delivered three weeks ago. However, Vahedi asserted that delivery is not expected to occur. Furthermore, he revealed that Iran's top officials have acknowledged this decision while continuing to await the required aircraft, uncertain of when they will be integrated into their fleet."
Iran yet to receive Su-35 jets it bought from Russia – report
Nearly a year after Iran purchased 50 Su-35 fighter jets from Russia, the aircraft are still not delivered, journalist Saeed Azimi wrote in a July 13 report for the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation analytical center.
Not hard to find also, earlier last month:
"The Iranian defense minister’s downplaying of reports of Iran acquiring Su-35 jets may suggest that the delivery of the planes has been delayed. It could also indicate that other options for collaboration on fixed-wing aircraft may be considered, including a possible coproduction of other models."
Downplaying ‘speculation’, Iran hedges on Su-35 purchase from Russia
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BitJam
Active Member
IMO we need more dissenting voices here. OTOH, it is not a good look to be so accusatory and combative based on such a questionable source.
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This is correct. Let me rephrase it, however:
Responsible persons in a conversation respond civilly to points brought forth by another. If they have sources with which to back up their own case, they cite that source and, if possible, either suggest why they think it ought to be considered valid, or attach caveats to its fidelity.
There is no reason to treat this thread either as cocktail party banter or as a high school - or lower - shoutfest. I have railed for years about why Twitter and its like are inimical to intelligent conversation and that will not happen here. Not on my watch.
Reading comprehension is essential. I did not dispute that Iran had gotten their jets, I disputed the bogus claim that Russia is unable to produce the aircraft. Obviously the aircraft they are producing now are being used in Ukraine instead of being sold to other nations, so Iran not receiving their order has no connection to production capabilities.FYI from an updated article just posted yesterday, more up to date than the source you are citing, plus it actually cites Iranian officials to get the story from the Iranian side (instead of a Russian PR piece which obviously will spin things as most favorable to their own image):
"In Azimi's piece, he mentioned that Iranian Brig. Gen. Hamid Vahedi confirmed the completion of all payments for Russia's Su-35 fighters. These jets were expected to be in Tehran's possession this year, yet the government is now uncertain if they will ever arrive. Azimi reported that Iran expected the aircraft to be delivered three weeks ago. However, Vahedi asserted that delivery is not expected to occur. Furthermore, he revealed that Iran's top officials have acknowledged this decision while continuing to await the required aircraft, uncertain of when they will be integrated into their fleet."
Iran yet to receive Su-35 jets it bought from Russia – report
Nearly a year after Iran purchased 50 Su-35 fighter jets from Russia, the aircraft are still not delivered, journalist Saeed Azimi wrote in a July 13 report for the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation analytical center.news.yahoo.com
Not hard to find also, earlier last month:
"The Iranian defense minister’s downplaying of reports of Iran acquiring Su-35 jets may suggest that the delivery of the planes has been delayed. It could also indicate that other options for collaboration on fixed-wing aircraft may be considered, including a possible coproduction of other models."
Downplaying ‘speculation’, Iran hedges on Su-35 purchase from Russia
petit_bateau
Active Member
Russia too hot for Schlumberger
(remember, sanctions should hugely impact Russian economy approx end 2023 per forex reserves projections, though I haven't seen an update for a while)
kyivindependent.com
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/VBO5P5MQP5PQ7CBDDYBFP422B4.jpg)
www.reuters.com
(remember, sanctions should hugely impact Russian economy approx end 2023 per forex reserves projections, though I haven't seen an update for a while)
SLB halts all shipments of products and technology into Russia
Oilfield services company SLB announced on July 14 that it will immediately stop all shipments of its products and technology from its facilities worldwide.
kyivindependent.com
Oilfield firm SLB halts all shipments to Russia
Top oilfield services firm SLB on Friday said it is halting shipments of products and technology into Russia from all its operations over an expansion of Western sanctions.
www.reuters.com
