Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

What’s the deal with the Czechs being so pro-Russian?

Czech protesters rally against government's pro-Western policies

Thousands of supporters of a pro-Russian Czech opposition party gathered in Prague on Saturday to protest against the country's centre-right government, criticising its economic management and military support for Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

A number of Russians live in Europe. The Muscovites don't trust the "inferiors" in the outer provinces to run anything, so most of the industrial concerns throughout Russia are run by managers from Moscow or St Petersburg. The managers fly out to the provinces to work and keep their families in luxury. The middle managers have a nice house in the St Petersburg or Moscow area and their children attend an elite school there. The upper managers have their families living in Europe and they live high off the hog there. Before the war the managers would fly out to see their families about once a month.

The war has disrupted all that. The families in Europe have been cut off from their manager husband/father since the war started and with air travel affected by sanctions the middle managers haven't been getting home much either. Both groups have taken a financial hit too. The manager class would like things to go back to the way they used to be.

On top of the wealthy ex-pats in Europe I think there are a lot of Russian immigrants in central Europe too. There was a story a couple of weeks ago that a Russian immigrant in Germany came across some Ukrainian refugee children playing in the street and chastised them for speaking Ukrainian, telling them they should speak Russian. When one kid (about 12) told the guy off, he threw the kid off a nearby bridge. The kid survived and the Russian was arrested.

Some of the protestors might be fueled by Russian propaganda, but other factors are Russian ex-pats and people who had business ties with Russia before the war who have seen them destroyed by the war. The American economy is doing very well right now, but the rest of the developed world is struggling. The cost of living crisis is a common topic of discussion in most developed countries these days. The cost of energy is a big factor in a lot of the financial woes in Europe and the war is a direct cause of that. So there is reason for short sighted Europeans to gripe.

More far sighted Europeans know that dealing with Russia as a military threat is more important.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I don't think Russian ex pats have much to do with the rise of right wing, anti-immigrant sentiment around much of Europe. It's unfortunate, but not unusual anytime there's a large influx of immigrants with different language, religion, and cultural norms than the native population. Tough economic times don't help the situation.

 

[wdolson]

I don't think Russian ex pats have much to do with the rise of right wing, anti-immigrant sentiment around much of Europe. It's unfortunate, but not unusual anytime there's a large influx of immigrants with different language, religion, and cultural norms than the native population. Tough economic times don't help the situation.

There are probably tensions with all the Ukrainian refugees and that is probably contributing. But there was a fairly decent sized Russian ex-pat community in many of these countries before the war too.

Unfortunately most of the anti-immigrant tensions in Europe are more aimed at non-white immigrants than other Europeans.

 

[Artful Dodger]

3-D printed, AI-piloted drones inbound from Ukraine:

16 Sep: Ukrainians UNLEASH DRONES ON THE RUSSIAN NAVY DURING THE STORM. | War in Ukraine Explained

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703277991046840564

 

[BitJam]

3-D printed, AI-piloted drones inbound from Ukraine:

16 Sep: Ukrainians UNLEASH DRONES ON THE RUSSIAN NAVY DURING THE STORM. | War in Ukraine Explained

He also said the number of naval drone attacks will increase by more than a factor of 100 by the end of this year.

OTOH, if this is all true, I don't understand why it is being aired publicly instead of kept secret to surprise the Russians.

 

[nativewolf]

I think the publicity is to force russia into grain deals more favorable than the previous one where russia had a say so in what ship sailed. If ukraine can continue to this operation and (with stormy winter seas coming) continue to damage the russian fleet, than russia will likely agree to a deal and try to pretend it is to save african nations

 

[madodel]

Perun discusses Russian defense production.

 

[madodel]

This is just the beginning. Maybe he can dig up Leni Riefenstahl to do a "Triumph of the Potato" film?

The Ukraine war, propaganda-style, is coming to Russian movie screens. Will people watch?

 

[samppa]

Finland has banned russian cars from entering. Finally, somebody grew some balls.

Suomi aikoo kieltää venäläisten henkilöautojen maahantulon

Baltian maat tekivät vastaavan päätöksen alkuviikosta. Taustalla on komission linjaus Venäjän kilvissä olevien autojen tulosta EU-alueelle.

yle.fi

 

[bo3bdar]

Here is a good opinion piece by Timothy Snyder:

Elon Musk likes to think he saved us from Armageddon. He’s just brought it closer | Timothy Snyder

Whatever his new biography says, by giving into Russia’s nuclear blackmail the X boss can only encourage more threats from Putin

www.theguardian.com

It's an interesting takedown of Musk, and a bit more hard-edged than you usually see Snyder. It seems clear he has lost patience with all the Putin apologists, including Musk.


Musk is not a stupid man, and it is baffling to me that he does not understand that nuclear weapons are strictly defensive weapons. Anybody, anywhere, that uses them in an offensive capability will be scrubbed out. If you give in to nuclear blackmail- how can Musk not understand this just begets more blackmail? Not just from Russia but all other countries. When you give in to a bully and let them beat you, everyone knows that they calm down and treat you well after that, right? Right?

If Russia were to use nukes, there is no question that NATO would scrub out the Russia military using conventional weapons. Nuclear fallout does not respect borders. There would be no ICBM caliber nuclear exchange started by NATO. There is no upside and no possible winning if Russia decided to launch ICBMs. Even people as evil and stupid and misinformed as Putin can clearly see there is no upside to a full ICBM exchange.

The MutuallyAssuredDestruction is a MAD doctrine, but it's the only way to handle nukes now that they are out of the bag. Oppenheimer felt some remorse, but really it was only a matter of time. Making sure that everyone knows that any offensive use of nukes will be met with overwhelming force is how you make sure they are only used to defend their own territory.

It's not possible to disarm now that we have them, because psychopaths like Russia will always lie to your face. You have to assume that they are lying and you don't disarm yourself in the face of genuine evil. It may have started out as an attempt to subjugate Ukraine, but now that it has spiraled into genocide, it needs to be called out as genuine evil, and I'm glad Snyder is willing to step up and call it like it is.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I wouldn't call Musk a Putin apologist. More like badly misinformed in some respects- like Crimea. He's actually done more for the Ukrainian cause than just about any single Westerner.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

This is just the beginning. Maybe he can dig up Leni Riefenstahl to do a "Triumph of the Potato" film?

The Ukraine war, propaganda-style, is coming to Russian movie screens. Will people watch?

I posted an article from the Guardian about that propaganda piece back on page 691. In short it is a total crap fest that very few people watched.

More that suggests a low Russian support for the Russian Dictator's war:

"

Kremlin’s propaganda film about Ukraine war plays to empty cinemas​

The box-office flop, about a fictional violinist who gets caught up in the atrocities, is further evidence that Russians want to forget about the invasion

Sat 2 Sep 2023 12.50 BST

[...]

In two hours of screen time, the film covers a wide spectrum of falsehoods that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasion of Ukraine. [...]

The Witness is a box-office flop. Set to a budget of 200 million roubles (£1.5m), it has grossed less than 14 million roubles (£110,000) in its first two weeks, with viewers across the country reporting empty cinema halls. [...
"

Kremlin’s propaganda film about Ukraine war plays to empty cinemas

The box-office flop, about a fictional violinist who gets caught up in the atrocities, is further evidence that Russians want to forget about the invasion

www.theguardian.com

But even an article like this contains Russian propaganda:...

"
...] Opinion polls have consistently shown that many in Russia have preferred to turn a blind eye to the war in Ukraine. According to a poll published last month by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster, a record 40% of Russians said they do not actively follow the events in Ukraine, while only 23% of respondents said they “closely followed” the fighting. [...
"

There is no independent media inside of Russia today! None! And yet the Guardian somehow thinks that there are independent pollsters(!)... I mean – What the actual fudge!...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Stop having the same Elon-Ukraine discussion over and over again.

 

[madodel]

I posted an article from the Guardian about that propaganda piece back on page 691. In short it is a total crap fest that very few people watched.

OK, but did anyone else mention "Leni Riefenstahl" or a "Triumph of the Potato" film?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It doesn’t get talked about because it’s a sensitive topic, but how will a US republican government headed by trump affect the supply chain of Ukraine. According to some American friends of ours it’s kinda looking like he will win next year. I think Ukraine and the free world needs to consider that trump may join the war effort on the Putin side, as absolutely bonkers as that sounds. He speaks highly of both Putin and Kim Jong Un. One has to wonder how much loyalty there will be there. Ugh. Tough discussion to have without getting political…but it’s going to be a conversation that people need to have.

 

[nativewolf]

Sniff... sniff?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703487373701693800

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1703542137948623206

Huge advances in artillery in the last decade or so. Excalibur was the best of the best but it seems this is pretty nifty in its own right. Germany supplied 250 rounds, not much but a start.

Vulcano 155 mm Guided Artillery Shell | MilitaryToday.com

Vulcano is a family of extended-range and guided artillery shells. These shells have a range of 60-100 km. These artillery shells were jointly developed by Leonardo of Italy and DIEHL Defence of Germany in order to integrate these shells into the German PzH 2000 howitzer.

www.militarytoday.com

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I read it's playing to empty theaters. Russians don't want to hear it.



Someone posted an interview with Snyder that was done in Kyiv recently. He is getting a bit edgier, but I saw something else where Snyder spoke at a conference on genocide. I got the impression that one of his passions is about ending genocide and he sees that what Russia is trying to do to Ukraine is genocide. As the war has gone on he appears to be getting more vocal in his support for Ukraine and how this genocide must end.

He is vastly better versed in Eastern European history than I. I am but an egg in comparison. However, knowing history and especially history from his angle which is looking at the Psychology of the people involved, you see the patterns in history. What Russia is doing must be stopped or it will get worse. As bloody and messy this war is now, it's better than the alternatives which are all much worse.



A lot of Americans are worried about a repeat of 2016, but I don't see that happening. There is a strong effort, supported by a number of conservative law professors, to get Trump disqualified under the 14th Amendment and I think it's going to work. There are too many people willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against him now so I don't think he will win even if he isn't disqualified.

But in any case, a pro-Putin presidential regime would not be good for the war effort. It wouldn't be fatal though. Europe has been stepping up and even a pro-Putin president doesn't mean the US would be out either. There are still enough people in Congress who are pro-Ukraine to keep the war goods flowing. Obstruction by the president to moving the goods would be a problem though.

The US presidential election is still over a year away and a lot can happen between then and now. A lot of countries will have national elections before the US election. Included in this list are Belarus in February, Russia in March, then the US in November. The UK must have parliamentary elections by the end of January 2025. Right about the time the US has its next inauguration.

There is growing dissatisfaction with Putin both among the public and among the rest of the government. I have seen some speculation that the FSB is shopping for a candidate who will "beat" Putin next March. That would be a way to pull off a coup with a fig leaf of authenticity.

Anyone in Russia with a few brain cells left working sees that this war is a lost cause. A lot of Russians are still invested in the sunk cost trap, but they see there is virtually no chance Russia wins this. About the best way out that might save some face would be to replace Putin and blame the whole war on him. If they can sell it well enough, then they might get away with it.

However Putin has done a good job of politically (if not physically) crippling/killing anyone who could take his place. He has made it clear that Russia can't stand without him in charge which has a built in problem even if there wasn't a war. He will die someday and then Russia will be left without any leadership.

This is the way with centralized dictators. They ensure so much is dependent on them that when they go their country spins into chaos. It's happened with almost every dictator like Putin over the last 120 years. Whether they invaded their neighbors or not.

Thanks for the reply. I’m not up enough on how the American system works but I do understand that the American congress does carry a lot of weight. I am less clear on how presidential vetoes work so not sure if he/she can just stop shipments and trade to another country.

Hopefully NATO members and EU members are discussing the possibilities of a Trump, Putin and Kim Jong Un alliance. No idea how likely that is but two of those recently got together to discuss matters, and trump is an admirer of both of them, and he represents pretty much half of the US populace.

Weird times we live in.

 

[bhzmark]

Stop having the same Elon-Ukraine discussion over and over again.

Anything by Tim Synder on Ukraine is worth reading and sharing, and discussion of his op-eds is interesting to me. I encourage others to offer any interesting commentary on Synder on Musk. It’s 100% on topic and interesting.

I liked Synder so much that I thought if only musk (or Sacks etc. ) would just read him, or listen to the Sam Harris podcast with him, or even have him on the All-In podcast, it would do a lot to change the minds of those who were just not understanding why supporting Ukraine was a good thing.

Unfortunately Synder’s recent op ed was perhaps too much invective and not enough history and calm reasoned political science and now I fear the opportunity was lost.