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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Seems Russia’s war economy is ramping up. That’s really not what I find interesting. What is interesting is the Russian people are fine with everything being siphoned into war machine. Employment I guess.

Hard to say Russians are fine with everything.

Accurate statistical sampling is impossible in Russia. For example, if a non-response rate is 75% and the 25% who did respond say the majority support the war, that does not mean the majority of Russians support the war.

Many analysts suppose that the majority of Russians are still proud of their country but suspect significant growing discontent about the war. Not that the discontented have any clearly viable options at this point to challenge their dictatorship. A serious challenge still means prison, death, or both.
 
Hard to say Russians are fine with everything.

Accurate statistical sampling is impossible in Russia. For example, if a non-response rate is 75% and the 25% who did respond say the majority support the war, that does not mean the majority of Russians support the war.

Many analysts suppose that the majority of Russians are still proud of their country but suspect significant growing discontent about the war. Not that the discontented have any clearly viable options at this point to challenge their dictatorship. A serious challenge still means prison, death, or both.

Reposting this in case someone forgot...

"
If we did a survey in the Soviet Union 😁
– Do you agree with the policy of the Soviet communist party?
– Yes!
– Do you agree with the policy of the general secretary?
– Oh, definitely yes!
– [interviewer getting more baffled] Don't you have any grievances about the current state of affairs to speak of?
– No, not at all, I think everything is the way TV is presenting it.
– I'm sorry, but do you actually have any opinions of your own?
– I do have my own opinions, but I disagree with them categorically!
"

Why do I doubt that people would dare to express a dissenting opinion in the Dictator's Russia...
 
12 Ukrainian pilots will be ready for F-16 combat flights in the summer of 2024, - The New York Times.But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, only 6 F-16s may be delivered out of about 45 fighters promised by European allies. Delivery and preparation turned out to be a "difficult task," the newspaper noted.The training of pilots on modern aircraft is happening "with lightning speed", but in general the training process is progressing more slowly than Ukraine and its allies had hoped. However, the Minister of Defense of Denmark noted that Ukrainian pilots are already flying over Denmark's airspace.

 

One can see which European countries are currently taking this most seriously and based on that, who they consider the neighborhood menace to be:

_132660118_nato_defence_spending_v5_map_640-2x-nc.png
 
Seems Russia’s war economy is ramping up. That’s really not what I find interesting. What is interesting is the Russian people are fine with everything being siphoned into war machine. Employment I guess.


Nobody ever knows for sure what the Russian people are thinking until there are open protests. What's going on is being tolerated, but probably not approved.

NATO and other western countries always knew that Soviet/Russian artillery shell numbers were going to dwarf anything they could do, so they set out to make artillery systems that did more with less. Western 155mm systems are more accurate and can shoot further than Russian 152mm systems. The Russian way of war is to use artillery as an area bombardment system where a sector of the front is saturated with artillery, then the ground troops move in. It's a very WW I approach.

Western artillery is to use the guns more like a sniper. Keep them silent until a target is identified, then drop a few shells with precision on that target. That's what the Ukrainians have been doing with their western artillery to great effect.

Russian vehicle and artillery losses have been quite high in the last couple of months
Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

Russia started the war with about 14,000 artillery pieces and the Ukrainians claim they have lost over 10,000. Some of those have been rebuilt, but the majority have probably been lost permanently.

The Ukrainians could do significantly more if their supply was greater, but they are probably doing a lot more damage to the Russians firing fewer artillery rounds a day than vice versa.


The Ukrainians are currently firing around 2000 rounds a day and the Russians 10,000. This supply is a 400 day supply if used at the current rate or an 80 day supply if they match the Russians in fire rate.


F-16 training takes a long time. Peacetime pilot training is 2 years and it's even longer for mechanics. The training course can only be shortened so much.

The Ukrainians asked for a radar upgrade on the F-16s they were getting. There has been nothing in the media about that, but it's possible that they are getting upgrades before delivery which is causing the delays.
 
Nobody ever knows for sure what the Russian people are thinking until there are open protests. What's going on is being tolerated, but probably not approved. [...

I wouldn't agree with "being tolerated". That implies that X amount of Russians could suddenly 'begin' to no longer tolerate what the Russian Dictator and his 'oppression apparatus' is doing. How would they be able to do that?...

I don't see any possibility of a serious threat against the Russian Dictator unless a sufficient amount of the Dictator's own oppression apparatus turns against the Dictator. It could either be parts of 'the police' or various elements of the armed forces or some combo of both.

That said – Navalny (before his death) and his wife (as well as others?) have called for every Russian to protest by forming cues at twelve o'clock during the days when they are allowed to 'vote' in the Russian Dictator's sham 'election'. And that sham 'election' is held this weekend between the 15th and the 17th of March.

The Dictator's 'police' was allegedly not as brutal during the protests when Navalny was buried as they've been previously. So I guess it will be interesting to see what kind of protest will take place during this sham 'election'...

Navalny and his wife has also called for everyone to either 'vote' for anyone else but the Russian Dictator – or to mark two 'candidates' which allegedly 'invalidates' the sham 'vote' (two 'candidates' that are not the Dictator that is). That way everyone 'working' with rigging this sham 'election' will know how big the opposition towards the Dictator really is.

 
I wouldn't agree with "being tolerated". That implies that X amount of Russians could suddenly 'begin' to no longer tolerate what the Russian Dictator and his 'oppression apparatus' is doing. How would they be able to do that?...

I don't see any possibility of a serious threat against the Russian Dictator unless a sufficient amount of the Dictator's own oppression apparatus turns against the Dictator. It could either be parts of 'the police' or various elements of the armed forces or some combo of both.

That said – Navalny (before his death) and his wife (as well as others?) have called for every Russian to protest by forming cues at twelve o'clock during the days when they are allowed to 'vote' in the Russian Dictator's sham 'election'. And that sham 'election' is held this weekend between the 15th and the 17th of March.

The Dictator's 'police' was allegedly not as brutal during the protests when Navalny was buried as they've been previously. So I guess it will be interesting to see what kind of protest will take place during this sham 'election'...

Navalny and his wife has also called for everyone to either 'vote' for anyone else but the Russian Dictator – or to mark two 'candidates' which allegedly 'invalidates' the sham 'vote' (two 'candidates' that are not the Dictator that is). That way everyone 'working' with rigging this sham 'election' will know how big the opposition towards the Dictator really is.


Authoritarian regimes have looked strong with the entire population cowed until suddenly it didn't. One of the more recent was the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine. Dictators hold on to control by keeping the population too scared to act, but when a large enough part of the population rises up and revolts, the dictator usually flees to another country in the middle of the night or ends up hanging from a lamppost. But it takes a large enough section of the population to take the risk and protest. Ultimately the dictator's police forces are limited in how many people they can round up.

We'll see what happens in the election.
 
A command post aboard a Russian tanker was struck by the Ukrainian Air Force. Not much left of that bridge. The life boat? appears to have abandoned ship in a hurry.

If true, this is HUGE!

This kind of thing has had to have made a huge impression on the surviving higher-ups in the command chain, will worry the daylights out of the folks running whatever “command post” replaces this one, and has to be draining enough of the best and brightest from the Russian personnel pool that more idiots and imbecile replacements will start taking over running things.

Forget worrying about the few hectares of land the Russians might take on any particular day; I think Ukraine is gonna win this thing!

Edit- plus I LOVE how that HUGE chunk of command post or whatever splashes down at around 00:11 - 00:12.
 
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If true, this is HUGE!

This kind of thing has had to have made a huge impression on the surviving higher-ups in the command chain, will worry the daylights out of the folks running whatever “command post” replaces this one, and has to be draining enough of the best and brightest from the Russian personnel pool that more idiots and imbecile replacements will start taking over running things.

Forget worrying about the few hectares of land the Russians might take on any particular day; I think Ukraine is gonna win this thing!

Edit- plus I LOVE how that HUGE chunk of command post or whatever splashes down at around 00:11 - 00:12.
Too late to edit my previous post, buy Denys’ latest video is skeptical there was anyone important on this old hard to get to, out-of-the-way tanker boat after all.

So maybe not so important after all.
 
Authoritarian regimes have looked strong with the entire population cowed until suddenly it didn't. One of the more recent was the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine. Dictators hold on to control by keeping the population too scared to act, but when a large enough part of the population rises up and revolts, the dictator usually flees to another country in the middle of the night or ends up hanging from a lamppost. But it takes a large enough section of the population to take the risk and protest. Ultimately the dictator's police forces are limited in how many people they can round up.

We'll see what happens in the election.

I guess you're right in that a large enough crowd would be untenable for 'the police' to deal with. But the crowd will probably have to take over Moscow and get a sufficient amount of the oppression apparatus to switch sides. They will also have to go after the Dictator and all his accomplices. Otherwise the Dictator and/or his minions will begin to start to try and take over yet again by imprisoning or killing key opposition figures. People in Belarus tried to accomplish something like a Maidan Revolution, but that time they didn't succeed...