Looks like on Fidelity I will need to use the Custom trade ticket
Yeah, you'll always need to use a custom trade ticket for this kind of thing. Not a big deal--I always use custom trade tickets. The major benefit of the custom trade ticket is that there are no selection bounds on any of the legs' quantity, C/P, expiration, or strike, other than what the capital in your account can support of course. "Common" strategy trade tickets are fine if you're just opening an IC or whatever, but they're just a short-cut instance of an open, four legged trade ticket.
So I BTC the -760p with 5/21 expiration
and STO the -440c with 5/28 expiration and collect a roughly $1 credit.
The $160 ITM put is transformed into a $160 ITM call.
This is my first question - do I have this part right?
Yep, that's correct. And it should intuitively make sense that the amount ITM you are stays basically the ~same, for the ~same expiration date. (The big difference is eating the bid/ask spread, which is why you push out a week)
Assuming yes, then the first observation is that clearly I would make this flip as I expect the shares to keep moving down and I would rather be ITM in the direction the shares are going, rather than ITM and opposite the direction the shares are moving. Of course I could be wrong, but I do think we're more down than up for awhile.
Exactly. And of course, your thesis doesn't require price to go down to 440. If price goes down to $500, for instance, and you think that's the bottom, you can flip the ~$60ITM -C @440 back to a -P@560 or so. Now you're X weeks in the future with a -P that's $200 more favorable than it was.
OR I can do a flip on a call at the same time.
Yes. You can combine the shitty value of your -P with the favorable value of one or many of your -C's and then re-allocate that summed value across a higher strike -P and a lower strike -C (or multiple -C's, or multiple -P's, or any combination of them). That would improve your portfolio theta, at the expense of putting the -C at higher risk since its going closer to the money (and potentially, ITM).
Anything I'm missing? If I'm wrong about direction then I have a deep ITM call - the thing I am most worried about.
Eh, its kind of the same risk as a DITM put. Just keep an eye on extrinsic value and definitely DO NOT push it till Roll Thursday. I'd keep expiration out at least a full week. Theta will be so small that you're primarily going to be burning off unfavorable contract value via underlying movement.
Last question for you (or anybody). Given a $160 ITM put (5/21 expiration currently), outside of straight rolls that I've been doing, what other trade types / setups would you consider? At $160 ITM
If you have capital, you could split the one -p into four -625p's (give or take). That increases risk significantly, of course, but reduces time to recover, if price were to run up over the next week.