Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

From Heisenberg:

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

From Heisenberg:

View attachment 972160

So great time to buy options then? Or the makings of an explosive pop?

 

[Jim Holder]

So great time to buy options then? Or the makings of an explosive pop?

Seems so from the aggregate of what better traders are saying. I bought some calls and spreads for 9/15 and 9/29. Would be nice to see some green from them after ending red this week from badly timed entries/exits from 9/15 -C260’s.

 

[Jim Holder]

to be honest all they had to do was trade my charts. My style of trading has more predictive potential than most other chartists Ive come across. Had you listened to me and waited for 248 today you would have saved at least $1000.

100%

Can you share your chart with us for next week’s possible moves?

Latest we have is the down to the dotted green lines:

 

[dl003]

100%

Can you share your chart with us for next week’s possible moves?

Latest we have is the down to the dotted green lines:
View attachment 972170

The pattern has closed or come close to closing. The default trajectory is up so thats my basic expectation for next week. I need to see more development first.

 

[EVNow]

Edit: I did use the drop to roll the rest of my ITM and near ATM -CCs out into 2024. Most everything is >300s, just one -c225 left. Also, notice that a Jan2026 pull-down is now showing on my brokerage menu, but no strikes are available.

I sold P225 ~250. Could have got better price a little later.

Still have C215s that I'm rolling weekly. If I had rolled the C220s to next year when the SP was ~290, I'd have not been able to close them when SP came down to 215 couple of weeks ago

Seems so from the aggregate of what better traders are saying. I bought some calls and spreads for 9/15 and 9/29. Would be nice to see some green from them after ending red this week from badly timed entries/exits from 9/15 -C260’s.

I think we all do motivated reasoning. I've noticed I tend to watch bearish videos on YT if I have sold ITM calls and bullish videos if I've sold ITM puts. So, almost everything I see now seems to be bearish !

 

[SpeedyEddy]

From Heisenberg:

View attachment 972160

The mother of all wedges could make a mother of all squeezes.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Remind you about seasonality, indicating coming week up, then next after-opex-week could offer a last opportunity to close the last -C and switch toward -P. Nice to see that my off-guard placed buy back of all sold shares filled @ $147.50 and my bullish outlook for next week is underpinned over here. Few chances left (maybe) to jump in IMHO. Especially don’t wait if we see a huge rise on volume, we might not ever be back to these levels. I will happily be all long before October starts.

 

[OrthoSurg]

No, I'm referring to Dec 2025 +c140's and +c200's that I bought when the SP was $167-173 back in May - as I like to make consistent annual profits, I can roll some of these to realise some gains at the end off this year, whatever I need to balance my books nicely for the taxes to get their fund of flesh they're expecting

But I do have Sep 2024 -c200's written against some of these, my trick with those recently has been to buy them back on the extreme dips and then resell for a $1 more when the price goes back up, this reducing the number of contracts by 1 each time

I deliberately rolled these from October this year to September next as it a) reduced the number of contracts by 25%, b) lets me worry about those loses in 2024. In reality I plan trade out of them all, beginning January, sell weeklies, buy back one by one. This plan may well change before then, or even by next Monday, who knows!

When you roll LEAPS do you select the same strike? I bought Jan25 110 Calls when SP was 110 on December 28th and was planning to roll them at some point. Do you sell your winning LEAPS, lock in the gains and buy 2026 110 calls or select an ATM strike price in the 250s?

 

[Max Plaid]

Remind you about seasonality, indicating coming week up, then next after-opex-week could offer a last opportunity to close the last -C and switch toward -P. Nice to see that my off-guard placed buy back of all sold shares filled @ $147.50 and my bullish outlook for next week is underpinned over here. Few chances left (maybe) to jump in IMHO. Especially don’t wait if we see a huge rise on volume, we might not ever be back to these levels. I will happily be all long before October starts.

Hmmm, yeah, well, I recall this time last year, along with a stock split I went pretty much all-on on $TSLA at $300, and look what happened next

Usually when I'm convinced of a move up it usually drops, and vice-versa, be careful

 

[Jim Holder]

Cary update for tomorrow:

Opening above $250.47 and pushing through $253.80 can bring $261.18 and pushing through that can bring $266.08 which can act as session containment. A close over $266.08 accelerates push to $277.15 over the next few days.

Monday close over $250.47 and certainly $253.80 is a buy signal/close shorts and can yield $277.15 objective over the next week or so. A close above $277 can yield $312.35 channel top in another 2-3 weeks and top out there.

For downside: Holding below $250.47 keeps $242 in reach which can act as decent support.

GLTA!

 

[tivoboy]

I would take a look out at the term structure and current levels of max pain for monthly expirations going out to February 2024. It’s quite interesting.

 

[Jim Holder]

I would take a look out at the term structure and current levels of max pain for monthly expirations going out to February 2024. It’s quite interesting.

Can you share with us what you found?

 

[tivoboy]

Can you share with us what you found?

Dec ‘23 MP 220
Jan ‘24 MP 200
Mar ‘24 MP 210

Obviously Jan of any year is an outlier since it’s a high target LEAP contract for almost any stock, and all is subject to change. I’m going to focus on tracking it a bit as we move forward over the next 30 days.

 

[Jim Holder]

Very interesting data from Yoona—daily ATR during market hours for the last 200 days:

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting possible IV play, someone bought $22k of +P100 9/22 puts:

(Watch at 2x…)

 

[Jim Holder]

Dec ‘23 MP 220
Jan ‘24 MP 200
Mar ‘24 MP 210

Obviously Jan of any year is an outlier since it’s a high target LEAP contract for almost any stock, and all is subject to change. I’m going to focus on tracking it a bit as we move forward over the next 30 days.

Hard to tell from these how long they are carrying them from (when they were put on) and how it will shift over the next few weeks and months. I also remember there were a few weeks I think in June/July where the closing price on Fridays was quite higher from where MP was. Sometimes it’s slips out of the grasp of the MM.

Might be the smart play is to sell the next rip (260? 270?) and wait for the inevitable retracement. Can it go all the way down to 200? Who knows. But this time I won’t be riding it down, instead I’ll sell all my 6,000 longs on break of support and let TSLA do its thing for as long as it wants. I’ll get back in once it’s done bottom feeding off the mat.

PS Hearing rumbles from bulls and Tesla lovers (not TSLAQ) re CT being ugly in person once the exterior loses its shine and gets a bit dirty, that it may flop and cause a panic sell of shares. Not trying to fear-monger, but perhaps buying some *sugar* puts is not a terrible idea, as is being ready to get out if the *sugar* hits the fan for TSLA alone or Macro/TSLA.

 

[tivoboy]

Interesting possible IV play, someone bought $22k of +P100 9/22 puts:

(Watch at 2x…)

View attachment 972711

We’ve seen this false flag, red herring before, I think someone it’s trying to create and “unusual activity” options contract to put uncertainty into the market players.. last month, it was in the 90’s.

 

[Jim Holder]

We’ve seen this false flag, red herring before, I think someone it’s trying to create and “unusual activity” options contract to put uncertainty into the market players.. last month, it was in the 90’s.

I feel special that that someone cares enough about how I feel about TSLA to spend $22k to change my mind, he should just send me half directly and I’ll nod along

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Interesting possible IV play, someone bought $22k of +P100 9/22 puts:

We’ve seen this false flag, red herring before, I think someone it’s trying to create and “unusual activity” options contract to put uncertainty into the market players.. last month, it was in the 90’s.

I saw those on Friday and just assumed that it was a margin-protection scheme. The SP has been dropping, so perhaps somebody needed more protection. I don’t understand that stuff (no margin in IRAs), but buying puts that far OTM and such short time-frame seems a lose-lose proposition. As tivoboy said, we’ve seen these before and they eventually just expire worthless. I can’t believe anything, short of nuclear war or admission of cooking the books, could drop the SP that low that quickly. I could see buying some 9/22 +p225s, but nothing lower. Maybe Monday opens down, big drop, with a large IV spike, but it would need to quick and deep, something like $10-$20 drop, to really affect those +p90s.

Given that I bought some 9/15 +c250s and sold some 9/15 -p240s/+p230s BPS, it wouldn’t surprise me if the ReddyLeaf counter indicator will be predictive this week.

Edit: Regarding MaxPain out to Jan24, many of those call options were likely bought near the Jan23 low, so MP could be skewed lower. Perhaps not many people buying puts around that time. I don’t really know, just hypothesis.