I've been wrong before with "it can't go that low..." But without a Macro crash, I don't see Tesla doing 1.8M vehicles, Cyber deliveries starting, and an SP of 170. So the question really becomes what will the markets do over the next 1-3 months?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Additional food for thought: the $245-265 area is also a huge volume area where lots of people may look to trim/bail/tax harvest/etc and such areas can provide formidable resistance to churn through absent any real meaningful catalyst. Will there be more buyers than sellers is the question.
Tricky area especially this week with CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday
Tricky area especially this week with CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday
I can give you one example. When SP was around $110 on Dec 28 2022, I bought ATM LEAPS and sold DITM puts. Both with Jan2025 expiration. Both netted around 10k per contract. I guess the LEAPS becomes really advantageous if the SP goes for another +50% run.
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I am not following your post. Are you saying you don't see the SP going to $170 but you don't think Tesla will hit this years guidance?
I like this chart. Where did you get it?Additional food for thought: the $245-265 area is also a huge volume area where lots of people may look to trim/bail/tax harvest/etc and such areas can provide formidable resistance to churn through absent any real meaningful catalyst. Will there be more buyers than sellers is the question.
Tricky area especially this week with CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday
View attachment 998073
What are your current thoughts where TSLA may be headed this week. Try to tag $250-$260 and fall to $220?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
We need a breakout on the daily to confirm direction. Upward we are close to confirmation, downward, we even could have another contraction in MA4x, before needing three new trading days to set direction. It is advisable to stretch decision on the course to end of Tuesday, correcting myself on the last posting involving MA4X.
I DO think Tesla will hit this years guidance. Part of the reason I can't see 170 without a big macro dump.
Thank you. So would equivalent today be:
BTO +C240 1/16/2026 @$80
STO -P340 1/16/2026 @$118
Obviously since they are very directional bets, safer to consider them once we cleanly break and close above the DTL (maybe above $270 area is enough?). Otherwise we may tag $250-$260 and dump toward $210, getting stuck in the bullish contracts.
If we do tag and fail, would a modified inverse on the same theme be valid for the ride down, something like:
STO -C280 1/16/2026 @$72
BTO +P220 1/16/2026 @$45
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I really do not understand your reasoning. You would better make such a unidirectional -P/+C move at a bottom, so might the direction of the next move be down unexpectedly, such a trade is a no-braine, near the “bottom”. The second example I would make that a short-term-one(march2024 or so) in the same situation, as a first move while going down, but get out before a 20% loss.
Agreed. This is just conversation about making a directional bet if one chooses to. And if we get confirmation that we are about to lift off from here (i.e., $270 to $313+, etc) then this is like a “bottom” too, until the new run stalls and shows signs of reversal back down. All cautions taken of course.
BTC @0.55
Waiting before selling again/more.
Still holding until trends picks a path:
12x -P290 9/2024
10x -C300 9/2024
15x -C510 1/2026
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
BTO +247.50 exp 12/15 at the 240 mark.
Fake drop. Dont see why. But we should know where SP go after tommorow.
Fake drop. Dont see why. But we should know where SP go after tommorow.
BTC 12/15 -c265 at 65% from Friday , looking at selling puts to ride up before closing and re-writing cc
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Guess people are dumping macro wise. All big tech are down. People are afraid of holding till CPI.
Either they know something or just a chicken phase.
Either they know something or just a chicken phase.
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