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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Some AI sell-off this morning. Almost dragged NVDA to red. People taking profits.
How in the world is SMCI keep on pumping like this?
How in the world is SMCI keep on pumping like this?
Tesla Is Maintained at Overweight by Morgan Stanley - $310 PT
Jun 20, 202411:24 EDTTesla Price Target Maintained With a $310.00/Share by Morgan Stanley
I sold some 205CCs for next week earlier on the pop. I don't see us closing at a 5 month high the week before P&D numbers come out on July 2nd. I will be less aggressive the following week for July 5th in case P&D surprises and leads to TSLA going back to early January ranges.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
If I'm going to lose money I rather sacrifice it for the good of AI NVDA or SMCI, not by some analyst hyping up RT, AI, when the AI has been diverted from said company into xAI.
Elon's antics with xAI and TSLA smell really fishy to me. Unless he announced some sort of benefit to TSLA...
Love the car, Love the Company, but losing faith daily. It's sad.
Why fishy?
"AI" is a general term. Not all AIs are the same or require the same type of data to train. xAI, aka Grok, if you know what it is, aims to complete against the likes of ChatGPT. ChatGPT and Grok do not consume the type of data generated by Tesla cars. Grok takes data from X while FSD takes data from Tesla cars.
So, what's so bad about xAI being a different company from Tesla? They're pursuing different products. Elon does not owe TSLA shareholders everything that has "AI" in its name, only what belongs in Tesla's mission.
You know what'd happen had Elon decided to, says, siphon data from X to train AI developed at Tesla, right? "Conflict of interest" "Tesla bailing out X" "Fraud".
But it warms me inside that people are losing faith. 250 is going to be sweet.
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Anyone chance a guess what this play is?
Someone sold 3,840 -C150 9/20/24 @41.58 for $16 million
B/E stock price: $191.60
Looks like an expensive bet—with urgency below bid—that TSLA will be going through the trapdoor at some point.
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I threw it into OptionStrat and with IV @~50 he just needs under $180 to start making $$ (profit grows greatly the lower TSLA get below that; but loses $$ above $190). If so perhaps it's not THAT bearish
(He's down -$84k meanwhile...)
LINK TO VIEW TRADE:
https://optionstrat.com/ALaiTQpZSrO7
[ignore Max Profit figure, that's if TSLA goes to $0]
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UPDATE:
They're up +$660k, didn't close yet (only QTY 23 volume today)
Seriously....the bearish sentiment is just ripe for a "out of nowhere" rally.
Not saying everything is roses and peaches for Tesla/TSLA and I would likely sell CC's if TSLA rallied to 250 as I would expect more consolidation, pullback, and chop...but if one takes a step back and sets aside the fact that Tesla's auto business will face a stagnate year for 2024 (which we all know it will be) then you have these potential positive catalysts:
- FSD China release (many anecdotal bits of info point to it being released this year)
- FSD licensing announcement
- Energy hitting Tesla's stated guidance of 75% YoY growth
- Then Shanghai Megapack factory being operational in Q1
- Continual FSD build improvements (every month that goes by gets FSD closer, no matter if your time window is 6 months, a year, or 2 years, etc..)
- Large COGS reductions from massive battery prices and battery mineral price declines (these take between 6-12 months to show up in COGS and can have large QoQ impacts depending on when Tesla renegotiates their terms with their suppliers)
- Large operation cost declines starting in Q3 from the massive layoffs in Q2
- Cybertruck having meaningful impact to revenue and way less impact from negative margins when they reach 2500/week rate by end of year
- Model Y refresh in 2025 + 2 more vehicles that Tesla talked about moving up production/upgrades on for early 2025
Seems to me like going bearish on TSLA now of all times when the stock has significantly underperformed is ill advised, but whatever makes one comfortable
You gotta separate out Twitter Elon posting his long term wishful thinking with what Tesla is actually doing. Seems like they already are starting to initiate their plans of using Optimus in their factories going forward (who knows what the actual usefulness of this is though right now or a year from now). But the point of Optimus being as efficient/fast as human worker, I'd wager you'll see a gap of 7-10 years where Optimus is only deployed in business/manufacturing settings before it's introduced to home/consumer environments.
I doubt Tesla has thought this far in advance (thinking things out far ahead, especially when it comes to monetization for future products is not their strong point), but hoping Tesla sets up the business model where they sell the Optimus hardware for 25% gross margin and then offer training packages for very nice software margins.
So say a business wants to use Optimus in their factory. They have to pay for the hardware and then Tesla in house, trains that deployment of Optimus's to perform the set of skills/functions needed for that manufacturing process that account for all the variables that will be present (different floor heights, different counter heights, different pace/speed, etc..)
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Great points, all.
One question on my mind is don't factories for decades now have amazing automation/robots they contract from companies that create and install them to great use, what would Optimi bring to the table that standard automation we see all day in factories don't already have/do that will make it a must have? There are TONS of robot/automation companies. What is the disruption angle?
Could be a long wait. TSLA is down ~55% from where it was about 32 months ago. NVDA is up about 320% over the same period. It may well hit $250 considerably sooner than Tesla.
The Human element positions. There's still tons of them, even with the level of automation seen today. Go look at a Amazon warehouse. Yes they deploy automation robots as much as they can. Yet they still employees hundreds of thousands of human workers. Same for any automaker factory. There are somewhere around 12-15 million manufacturing workers today in the US alone.
Also you have to add in that those automation robots are insanely expensive. The combination of Tesla being a high volume manufacturing, producing most of their parts in house for Optimus, and controlling the entire software stack puts Tesla a cost comparison brackets that will be extremely hard for any company, even very large companies, to replicate or compete on.
As I understand it the disruption angle is the ability for these robots to drop into spaces and processes that humans handle today. Instead of purpose built, or highly customized, automation that doesn't fit into a human's space (needs cages, guard rails, and so forth to keep human fingers out of the machinery, you get automation that can work inside of the same physical space with the humans. Heck - you could even have work stations where there is a mix of robots and humans working together.
If you've watched How Its Made - picture the various processes where individuals are scanning over the output from a food process where they're taking out the bad looking / badly cooked / broken output. There are invariably many people picking over the output - substitute a few robots for the front end of that process picking out the particularly bad / easy to spot stuff and then have a smaller number of humans at the end of that part of the line picking out the more subtle stuff.
The other vector for the disruption is the ease and speed of training and retraining. Bring the robot to a station and have it observe a human performing the task. Then the robot gets to it, receives some minor correction, and just like that another station is automated.
Whether that is actually realistic is a wholly different question. And whether that's realistic out of the gate or needs another decade of development after something is initially working.
As an aside, if you haven't watched How Its Made, I highly recommend. I find it enthralling. Far from an expert but I do have a mental picture of how to cookies that are fully covered (including the bottom) in chocolate get that done at high volume (as just one of a horde of trivia) I have rattling around in my head. Fun!
Hmmm, any reason for the dumping, or just overbought AI stocks?
STO 50x NVDA 6/28 @$2.1 (that's the benefit of closing this week's already yesterday)
STO 50x NVDA 6/28 @$2.1 (that's the benefit of closing this week's already yesterday)
Opened a SMCI -c1100/+c1200 @ $993 , looks like I can close that now and open a put side spread , thinking -p820/+p720 for 6/21 ... .05 delta. I like 840 better but that would be greedy. If I keep the call spread and add the put spread, no new margin. Question is whether 820 is close to the sun.
EDIT: Missed the closing and didn't step into the put side. Will leave good enough alone.
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I laugh every time someone thinks they are going to buy or rent an Optimus bot in the next few years to cook, clean, iron, do yard work and walk the dog. The TAM for manufacturing jobs and DDD jobs (dirty, dangerous and drudgerous) is too large and profitable for Mr and Mrs. Dink to compete.
sector rotation from tech into energy
perhaps related to the quarterly spy/qqq rebalancing and OpEx
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