Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Remember during difficult days of TSLA pain while seeing other Beta hit their ATH again and again:

“TSLA often goes down on bad news, down on good news, and skyrockets upward on apparently no news at all.“ —BPJOD

 

[thenewguy1979]

Remember during difficult days of TSLA pain while seeing other Beta hit their ATH again and again:

“TSLA often goes down on bad news, down on good news, and skyrockets upward on apparently no news at all.“ —BPJOD

That's why it going Moon soon on no news. Hang onto your underwear guys.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's why it going Moon soon on no news. Hang onto your underwear guys.

While it’s true that TSLA has a history of having surprise rallies , let’s not forget that it took Q3 and Q4 2019 massive earnings beats to cause the spark that then lead to the unscripted rallies. That’s when wall st really flipped the narrative.

Before that, Tesla was range bound for 5 years, similar to what we’ve experienced for going on 2 and a half years now. So in my opinion, Tesla needs to beat earnings in a meaningful way before the element of unscripted rallies are a possibility again.

Tesla wasted all their good faith with Wall St all throughout 2023 by posting quarter after quarter after quarter of declining margins. And then right as a new quarter began….more price cuts. Tesla needs to stop the pattern for anything to change. Sure margins technically slightly improved in Q4 but it wasn’t in any way a big beat verses expectations. Until this changes i think we see rallies that are just relief rallies that stay well within the downtrend trading range from the last 2 years.

 

[Yoona]

I don’t actually like the way this is setting up… somehow has built a MOAT between 160-180 for Mar8

-gex 180 is showing a single strike of greater magnitude than the adjacent strikes, which means interest is concentrated at that point and is more likely to act as magnet/support (ie continuation downward is unlikely)

IF there were multiple adjacent strikes from -180 to -150 roughly of the same magnitude (ie height) forming a cluster, it's time to panic because that means continuation down to 150 is likely; no such laddering downward is visible yet

in other words, a moat is actually good to have, AS LONG AS IT IS SHALLOW

 

[jeewee3000]

Wow, we're on page 2000 of this thread and I've read every post since it was started by adiggs. A lot has happened and I for one learned valuable lessons I'll carry with me for the rest of my investing/trading life.

Curious to see where we'll be when we hit page 4000!

 

[CHGolferJim]

That is all very true. It is possible that that same moment of realizing the loss on (A) is also the right time to open the position (B). I have done a roll before, when I was firmly convinced this was the case, but more often I simply find I benefit from a thinking period in between closing (A) and potential opening (B) (or deciding not to open (B).

Also, yes, tax considerations may come
Into play for some. Certainly each should be aware of all the impacts of their considered trade. In my case, virtually all activity is in accounts structured where tax considerations do not matter for me for these trades. But when taxes do matter, I would simply remind myself that if a position is a losing position, holding onto a losing position for tax reasons is still holding onto a losing position, and only in extreme edge cases would the tax savings offset the potential loss about to be incurred.

Careful about situations where the option value > opening so losing, but underlying shares are > cost, such that allowing assignment —> realization of capital gains, if in taxable account.

 

[Max Plaid]

Just keep on doing what you're doing Max. Stock is pumping.

Your strategy is as unique as Jim and Yoona. Just keep at it till it's no longer working.

How that 10K stocks buyback doing so far?

I'm just trying to get into stable zone to start writing sensible strangles, but with the stock moving around so much there's always a repair-job ti undertake...

For the shares, 100x per week, will buy some tomorrow - I'm not particularly trying to time it or use a put to get the shares, just a plain old limit order close to the market

Initial target will be 6500 as I have the June 2026 +p270's as a guaranteed price on that, although I need to wiggle out of the -p270's first, but plenty of time to sort those out

Wow! That's a lot to juggle. With so many plates in the air how do you keep track of which legs belong to what trade?

Well there's zero connection in my broker, they're all just individual trades, although some require margin/cash, others limit margin, etc.

So any association is in my mind, and then I tend to work in pairs, I guess like everyone else, so many +c's/TSLA supporting so many -c's, etc.

I just order my portfolio by expiry date, plus I have all positions on my WeBull watchlist, and I have each one "in play" modelled in OptionStrat so I can see the projected value at various SP in the coming days/weeks/months

But for this week, I only really looking at next week's expiries, with the rise in the SP, the Sep -p270's no longer appear to be an early assignment risk. If the SP were to rise more then I'd start thinking about writing some Sep -c270's, but needs to be 220 before they become worthwhile

So just focussing on what needs to be focused on helps a lot

 

[Jim Holder]

Head's up, per @Yoona 's data:
Thursday MMD=9:30-11:00am
Also largest afternoon drop 3:00-4:00pm

Momo may override but good to keep in mind.

Also algo is pointed straight down to $182, surprising because puts are mostly gone for 2/9 and we are left with many green bars above (see beloow), so not sure if that drop coincides with the MMD or will revert at open:

 

[SpeedyEddy]

That Algo doesn't seem to be right @Jim Holder , mine (AS-OF-NOW) is more like so:
(187-ish)

 

[Jim Holder]

That Algo doesn't seem to be right @Jim Holder , mine (AS-OF-NOW) is more like so:
(187-ish)View attachment 1016479

That's what it showed about 45-minutes ago.

Now it's showing this:

 

[SpeedyEddy]

very volatile indeed, again changed when I just looked. But just be careful not to get carried away too much by these half-baked indicators.

 

[Jim Holder]

very volatile indeed, again changed when I just looked. But just be careful not to get carried away too much by these half-baked indicators.

Definitely. BTW I learned that it's the same data as the paid service, they allow AAPL and TSLA for free as a trial. I found it to be right about general direction about 70% of the time, though I don't rely on it. It helps for confluence with other indicators and TA.

 

[Max Plaid]

Definitely. BTW I learned that it's the same data as the paid service, they allow AAPL and TSLA for free as a trial. I found it to be right about general direction about 70% of the time, though I don't rely on it. It helps for confluence with other indicators and TA.

Can you repost the link Jim? Cheers

 

[Jim Holder]

Can you repost the link Jim? Cheers

Sure: Options Analytics & Market Data Insights

 

[Max Plaid]

Sure: Options Analytics & Market Data Insights

And by way of return, you might find this useful of you don't already use it: StockConsultant TSLA, $TSLA, Tesla Inc price targets, charts, detailed technical analysis.

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA stacked with darkpool activity around here, causing resistance:

 

[Jim Holder]

And by way of return, you might find this useful of you don't already use it: StockConsultant TSLA, $TSLA, Tesla Inc price targets, charts, detailed technical analysis.

Thank you. What do you use that for?

 

[Max Plaid]

Sure: Options Analytics & Market Data Insights

The "Customer Positioning" graphic is a nice snapshot too

 

[tivoboy]

And by way of return, you might find this useful of you don't already use it: StockConsultant TSLA, $TSLA, Tesla Inc price targets, charts, detailed technical analysis.

When I do my TA and charting, I’ve often used these guys as a gut check or confirmation. Not sure what they are doing, other than the obvious but they do tend to be much more re-inforcing for MY math at least, for whatever that is worth.

 

[Max Plaid]

Thank you. What do you use that for?

Resistance and support levels feature is pretty good IMO as it indicates the "strength" of each