Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

The day I will retire is the day @Yoona is going to start to take my money to trade with it. I already made my resignation letter and praying for that moment every night.

Yeah, ideally though I want a ton of shares and a pile of cash to sell safe weeklies without the need to do spreads

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm also toying with the idea of selling my current 2200 TSLA and buying 29x Jun +c200's

Why not sell shares and stay in cash until a bottom is found and then either buy shares again or the +C200 LEAPS, or is it in case of a surprise run up?

 

[Max Plaid]

Why not sell shares and stay in cash until a bottom is found and then either buy shares again or the +C200 LEAPS, or is it in case of a surprise run up?

Because I have no idea whether the SP will go up or down, but it seems to me a lower-risk position from here

And if it trades sideways, the 29x +c200's gives more call-writing power than 2200 TSLA

And should have added that I'm writing a lot of calls and want to retain that ability

 

[Yoona]

by coincidence i posted gamma of the top 4 yesterday ! - looking 1 month ahead

edit: perhaps imma going to short nvda then flip to BPS mid-week NOT ADVICE

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766837258076782850

 

[thenewguy1979]

So up to $235 or down to $115, or both!

A dump to the low 100's would be great for myself given that I have 100x July +p150's, despite my misgivings about the state of TSLA in the short term, I'd be looking to sell off those puts and backup the truck for some shares

All that being said, I'm also toying with the idea of selling my current 2200 TSLA and buying 29x Jun +c200's, an odd number it seems, but rounds-up my +c200's to 100x, which I like, and would add around $225k cash to my account, which would be comforting in these troubled times

I ran the numbers and those LEAPS plus the retained cash, track pretty much the same as the shares on the way up, slightly better on the way down

And yes, I know I already have a pile of +c200's that I would like to offload, but that's just the $122 cost basis talking, at <$50 I think they're good value, IV seems particularly low for the moment

Perhaps we get both. A pump beyond $200 approaching ER and then Musk and Team crashed the SP with their gloomy and doom ER reports. The biggest issue during ER is not the actual earning but how the messages are being conveyed.

For an M7 company their earning Presentation and Showmanship left a lots to desired.

Perhaps Fred strategy is to buy super way out of the money Puts aiming for 115 then reverse with another way out of the money Call. Im still confused as none of the option training focus on making money by just going Long, without a combination of Selling. Hidden Holy grail I say

 

[Max Plaid]

by coincidence i posted gamma of the top 4 yesterday ! - looking 1 month ahead

edit: perhaps imma going to short nvda then flip to BPS mid-week NOT ADVICE

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766837258076782850

I'm wondering if NVDA Friday was just an OPEX rug-pull and whether it will continue or flip back into steamroller mode?

I have that small 5x -p950 position to take care of, which I could just roll and see what happens, or roll down a bit, maybe a couple of weeks out, 2x or even 4x the contracts to bring the lot OTM, but then risk if it keeps dropping to have an even worse situation

Probably best not to multiply the contracts, just roll 'em down, if the SP keeps falling the 20x +p600's I'm holding will gain in value

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah, I don't think we'll see a repeat of what happened in 2020/1, that was a perfect storm and in hindsight it's obvious TSLA was in a bubble, but in the heat of the moment, after years of the stock being manipulated down, it was very difficult to be objective, added that many of us had bought-in at very low price in the "dark years"

So my goal from here isn't looking for that big killer trade any more, although I had an opportunity on the run up from $170 to $300 last year, and missed it because I capped my LEAPS with calls - in hindsight I could have avoided that with having some shitcalls as an escape-route as I do now, but that's the game, eh, every day you learn something new

Capital preservation and growth is my target now, decided against buying TSLA, in fact thinking to sell a couple of hundred shares and convert to June 2026 +c200's - mostly to use for writing against though, but will take the profits if they come too

In the same boat here. I don't need 10X's or 5X's to hit the number I've calculated for me and my family retiring exactly how I want to in 10 years' time.

TSLA hitting 300/share + the equity in the private company I'm with that I expect to IPO or sell itself in the next 1-2 years, gives me that number with some buffer. Obviously, I think 300/share for 2 years from now is a joke so I just sell CC's at strike prices that I'm relatively ok with if they get called away (starting at 400/share and higher) because it just means a even more comfy retirement lifestyle. I don't really need to move up that retirement age because my work/life balance is great and I'm compensated well. So I have plenty of time and patience for the stock to hit that $400/share for some of my shares to get called away. I'll stagger it up the chain (1000 shares at $400/share, 1000 shares @450, and so on) and across multiple years strategically for tax purposes. For me to get rid of all my shares, I think my last sell of a tranche of shares will be the $600's. But in the meantime, I'm gonna happy bringing in 20% gains on selling the CC's.

As some of the shares get called away if/when (hopefully lol), I'll just use some of the cash proceeds to sell cash secured Puts for even more income. If I get assigned those shares if the stock drops down30-40%, I'll just sell more CC's on those new acquired shares. Rince and repeat for the next 10 years.

Really the main thing I have to ponder in the short term is how much do I want to stretch things to acquire more shares if TSLA keeps falling into that 146-150/range. Right now I have cash sitting on the sidelines that I could deploy and increase my share count. if I just sit on my hands, don't use that cash and don't do much of anything for the year or so (except collect some premium on CC"s if the stock spikes up on a strong rally), then everything is stress free. After the past 2 years with TSLA and Elon, I'm no longer comfortable being on the edge with share accumulation. I'll accumulate shares, but in as stress free way as possible and have clear exit points and position selling options to correspond with those exit points.

 

[Singuy]

by coincidence i posted gamma of the top 4 yesterday ! - looking 1 month ahead

edit: perhaps imma going to short nvda then flip to BPS mid-week NOT ADVICE

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766837258076782850

F me sideways. This is why I have developed a heart condition. The two individual stocks I decided to go heavy on was AMD and TSLA back in 2017. The volatility of the two can kill thanks to retail investors' lunch money getting taken by manipulators every week being short or long.

 

[Yoona]

I'm wondering if NVDA Friday was just an OPEX rug-pull and whether it will continue or flip back into steamroller mode?

I have that small 5x -p950 position to take care of, which I could just roll and see what happens, or roll down a bit, maybe a couple of weeks out, 2x or even 4x the contracts to bring the lot OTM, but then risk if it keeps dropping to have an even worse situation

Probably best not to multiply the contracts, just roll 'em down, if the SP keeps falling the 20x +p600's I'm holding will gain in value

NVDA crashed after hitting the 3% fib

it MAY follow the SMCI playbook (ie at least 7 green candles, then a bearish engulfing candle that's lower than the last 2 candles, then 2 reds)

 

[Jim Holder]

Worth a watch.

Brief summary: $173-$165 is bottom picking territory. Can hold nose and buy +C205 for 8-12 weeks out (long DTE to preserve delta/theta), expecting a rotation up over 2-3 weeks.

A close below $164 is a major failure signal. Consider liquidating all longs and preparing for a plunge way down (as low as $89 ). Can sell -C210 for 6-8 weeks out.

Be nimble and prepare to reverse based on unfolding price action.

Watch the video for the rest (less than 10 minutes). FWIW Cary has nailed the major TSLA rotations so far all of 2023 and 2024. He’s an excellent chartist.

 

[dl003]

Your analysis is great and always worth reading. I will just add that I've never seen the SP bottom after hugging up against a support level like it has done at 175 for 3 days. Although there's always a time for firsts. I think we will see a push lower followed by a clear signal of support before any bounce. This clear signal has always been a rather sudden and abrupt bottom with SP turning around rather quickly. I've always watched for SP to open lower and close at or near its day high, although hesitation in the morning, as we saw on 3/7, is usually a warning sign. While the first hour on Jan 16th looked like a bottom, the clear hesitation to close at or near its day high was also a warning sign.

I've never said last week was the bottom. My number is 171.7 and I've said one more flush but it's not gonna be below 171.7. Normally I allow the stock room to bottom but on rare occasions, such as this, my number is firm.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Worth a watch.

Brief summary: $173-$165 is bottom picking territory. Can hold nose and buy +C205 for 8-12 weeks out (long DTE to preserve delta/theta), expecting a rotation up in 2-3 weeks.

A close below $164 is a major failure signal. Consider liquidating all longs and preparing for a plunge way down (as low as $89 ). Can sell -C210 for 6-8 weeks out.

Be nimble and prepare to reverse based on unfolding price action.

Watch the video for the rest (less than 10 minutes). FWIW Cary has nailed the major TSLA rotations so far all of 2023 and 2024. He’s an excellent chartist.

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Sounds like a plan.

 

[ChiefRollo]

I've never said this is the bottom. My number is 171.7 and I've said one more flush. But it's not gonna be below 170. Normally I allow the stock room to bottom but on rare occasions, such as this, my number is firm.

Honestly I feel better fwiw after reading this post.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Worth a watch.

Brief summary: $173-$165 is bottom picking territory. Can hold nose and buy +C205 for 8-12 weeks out (long DTE to preserve delta/theta), expecting a rotation up over 2-3 weeks.

A close below $164 is a major failure signal. Consider liquidating all longs and preparing for a plunge way down (as low as $89 ). Can sell -C210 for 6-8 weeks out.

Be nimble and prepare to reverse based on unfolding price action.

Watch the video for the rest (less than 10 minutes). FWIW Cary has nailed the major TSLA rotations so far all of 2023 and 2024. He’s an excellent chartist.

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I like this, but am worried about reaction to Q1 ER which this may not reflect.

 

[Jim Holder]

I like this, but am worried about reaction to Q1 ER which this may not reflect.

I agree. I view them as broad strokes of the triggers to be aware of for breeches (like one that may be caused by another poor earnings). Though in EW fashion, human emotions seem to seek reasons to bounce off bottom of the channel as much as it does from the top of the channel. So the waves find a way to play out lots/most of the time.

Also when other TSLA chart experts + TA/GEX/etc. are saying same/similar it helps build confidence in the probability of the moves in the consensus direction.

 

[dl003]

Honestly I feel better fwiw after reading this post.

You can go back and objectively check. Since its IPO, this is only the 6th time a bullish divergence has formed on the weekly for TSLA. In every prior instance, the stock ran up bigly and not once has the setup been invalidated by a further crash. Anything can happen in the market, really, but if I was a betting man, I'd bet on the side that has got a 100% success rate.

 

[Jim Holder]

You can go back and objectively check. Since its IPO, this is only the 6th time a bullish divergence has formed on the weekly for TSLA. In every prior instance, the stock ran up bigly and not once has the setup been invalidated by further crash. Anything can happen in the market, really, but if I was a betting man, I'd bet on the side that has got a 100% success rate.

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This is really cool! Thank you.

Is $209 still the target/hard resistance or more than that before re-testing a breakout from $170 again. What are you envisioning?

 

[intelligator]

Wow , I have lot's or reading and watching of the weekend posts. Sounds like I should get out of this ASAP very soon ? Ideally a bounce up would help lower the closing costs. This is the last open position I have ... it is a leftover roll for January 2023, have been synthetic green. There's no way a further roll out would have enough extrinsic to survive a slide to the low 100's. A roll of the same strikes to Jan '26 is already at a debit, would only have enough extrinsic on short leg to SP = 120

Any idea how to reduce closing costs or flip to better position is greatly appreciated. Considering it'd be $41k to close as we sit, I'd never open a like position again, meaning the closing costs are cash that will take a long time to earn back.

 

[dl003]

This is really cool! Thank you.

Is $209 still the target/hard resistance or more than that before re-testing a breakout from $170 again. What are you envisioning?

Everything is going to be different.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I've never said last week was the bottom. My number is 171.7 and I've said one more flush but it's not gonna be below 171.7. Normally I allow the stock room to bottom but on rare occasions, such as this, my number is firm.

Already did a little cash into @tsla AH on Friday, below $ 175and for that into the close increased -P185 June ‘26, but am not totally certain on any low momentarilly. Only that it should be near because fundamentally we’re ultralow, only the necessarily suppressed news about that is stuck after the court- ruling. Thanks 9-stock shareholder and judge, you really did something to protect the shareholders . But I don’t mind (anymore) selling and buying in cheaper after each sell, parking money in rising shares like PLTR, PayPal so even leveraging sharecount after every significant drop. Bit sidelined on $TSLA still, but on close watch the next 2 days (daytrading SMCI, which I am still short on (-C short term far out of the money (1450 and higher) crunching IV mostly. Nice free money, mostly buying SOFI at the moment.