Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Doing it this way you use the LEAPS as "safety" contracts for an escape-roll

Thank you again!

Can you elaborate a bit on what safety contracts and escape roll mean in this context? I’m a bit lost.

 

[phantasms]

@Knightshade ... with your last few posts, (and, quite honestly, all your posts) you have given a Master Class in Reality. We can all be Tesla supporters and believers in what Tesla will do in the future and their mission, But reality needs to be spoken (written in this case) and I agree with you 100%. To think that the stock price will magically move higher because sales will increase dramatically or FSD suddenly becomes 100% real in the next few quarters is all hopium. Again, we can continue to be big believers in Tesla and TSLA, but reality and sentiment short term is not so good. People on these forums talk about moderators choice for excellent posts, your last few should be nominated! Thank you.

Meh. I prefer to be verbally assaulted by the angry cat. /s

@Knightshade is awesome.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Depends who is doing the pricing. There's STILL folks in the other thread sure Troy is clueless on his estimates and Tesla has some magic deliveries rabbit to pull to hit 2.4M or whatever this year. Hopium is a helluva drug. I'd like to say Q1 PD will be a wakeup call, but based on history they'll just find more excuses that aren't Teslas fault and will be sure they'll magically catch up later in the year despite having no plan for how that'd be possible.



So s the current price reasonable?

As a car company, which is still the vast majority of all revenue, PE is still insanely too high at current stock price and vehicle margins and expected sales (esp. once you back out the one-time tax thing from last quarter)--so if you don't expect the financials to reflect being more than a car company this year then it's still going down when they post a terrible PD in a couple weeks and it becomes obvious even 2 million this year will be a stretch and higher is out of the question.

As a car company with an energy business that's starting to become significant you might have a different opinion... energy was only 6% of total revenue in 2023 though, and even Q4 was only up 10% YoY despite the megapack factory outputting. This is the one place there MIGHT be a positive surprise in the Q1 figures-- and again I doubt it'll be anywhere NEAR enough to offset the lack of growth in auto we might at least see energy revenue hit 10% or better of total revenue and maybe convince a few more folks there's more than a car company here and maybe the high PE isn't quite as crazy when if Lathrop is ramping well and we know another such factory is building now in China.


As an "AI" company? Pure and utter fantasy right now. Made worse by the overhang of Elons comp package and his threatening to develop all the cool stuff somewhere else if his demands for 25% of voting control isn't met. Same with robots and self driving*


*RTs aren't happening this year. Nor anything close to em. But it's POSSIBLE we'd see a big improvement in how good an L2 system Tesla offers-- enough that the take rate on FSD, even at L2, improves materially. This, like energy, isn't going to be enough money to get us back to ~30% margins or anything- but it'd be a welcome and positive surprise--- and also bode well for next year when it would get more widely available in the better version in the EU and/or China.

The only remaining chunk of the business is services and other...about 8.5% of revenue in 2023.... Used car prices have continued declining so the previous good news there is gone... Superchargers make a bit, and they're opening up now... but there's so (relatively) few cars who'll be using them in 2024 this isn't likely to be material financially. We MIGHT get a bit of a bump from recognizing deferred FSD revenue from overseas late in the year, but that requires fast moving regulators so good luck and take rate was never high there anyway... so I don't see a big bump here either outside of my maybe-L2-gets-way-better-enough-to-attrack-buyers thought.


So- and again I freely admit this is me just being overly rational about a market that's frequently anything but-- I don't see why anybody who isn't buying TSLA today at $169 would have any interest in doing so at $200 (let alone the $300 someone suggested) in a year where sales and revenue will be largely flat-- and FCF will likely be even worse than last years 42% YoY decline.


That's good news I guess for someone sitting on cash who wants to get in cheap for the growth phase kicking back in late 2025 and especially 2026 and on.... it's less good news for anyone holding shares who might want/need to get rid of em anytime soon.

Did you get out of your long position, or are you holding on tight?

 

[ProfessorZoom]

The system just isn't sufficiently more useful than much more basic offerings from competitors to be worth more than $1k

Me reading this as soon as I got to my desk at work after my car just drove me from my mailbox to my work parking lot with no interventions
Same as yesterday
and the day before
and the day before

But I guess since the country is such a big place everyone has vastly different experiences

 

[Max Plaid]

Thank you again!

Can you elaborate a bit on what safety contracts and escape roll mean in this context? I’m a bit lost.

Well you only write against your April & May calls, keep the 2025 calls available to roll against

 

[Jim Holder]

Crazy PM spike to $170+, any news out there?

 

[BornToFly]

Crazy PM spike to $170+, any news out there?

View attachment 1027827

PPI just came out. I haven't seen the numbers yet.

 

[Jim Holder]

PPI just came out. I haven't seen the numbers yet.

Came in hot, market should be going the other way....

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

3/15

3/22

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I've seen 168 mentioned as a key level by some TA traders. We sliced through that like butter

 

[Knightshade]

Did you get out of your long position, or are you holding on tight?

My longs are still up quite a lot from original investment, and I still think the company will do well long term, so right now I'm mostly just picking up pennies on selling CCs---I could almost certainly do better moving the $ somewhere else for a year or more but I don't have the time or interest in finding another awesome company I have anywhere near the understanding of, and I'm hoping the pennies thing can beat slapping it in an index fund when the indexes are already at/near ATHs.... I'm probably adding a few longish calls down here that I don't plan to hold "long term" but expect to make a few bucks on when we inevitably get a bounce from something (and sell CCs on em until we get a bounce).

Not financial advice obviously- if I was good at that I'd have sold at $400 and rebought at $108 or whatever.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Came in hot, market should be going the other way....

Yeah, that initial market reaction felt like a head fake. If we get another month of CPI/PPI data that comes in hot, then June rate cuts start to move off the table and that'll be a doozy on the market

 

[ChiefRollo]

Yeah, that initial market reaction felt like a head fake. If we get another month of CPI/PPI data that comes in hot, then June rate cuts start to move off the table and that'll be a doozy on the market

It’s not the only factor affecting rate cut decision.

 

[elasalle]

OK, in for 200 shares with 2 CC's at 175 (for around 1.50) ..each ... hope to have like $1300 extra in pocket by Fri ...

2 Round trips on Jan 25 CC's (for like +$1500).. but then again sold Jan 25 250s to have a hedge and some cash in hand

Selling/Closing the shares(200), and CC's(32) got me like 2K ... now need to wait for a mini-bounce ...

 

[Jim Holder]

Well you only write against you April & May calls, keep the 2025 calls available to roll against

Thanks for this, made $1,450 this morning toward covering some of the red on the calls by STO NTM -C 3/22 up @ $170 and BTC down at $165.50. Going to repeat a few times as SP permits.

TY!

 

[Jim Holder]

If you look at the option chain: 100 strike calls (any exp) are down more than 180 strike calls on an absolute basis, even though the 180 strike is down more on a percentage basis. Because the 100 strike is a higher dollar amount - even a lower percentage of that is a higher absolute amount.

If you’re exchanging contracts 1:1, you can see that you would want a low stock price because you will be saving more on your BTO low-strike than you’re losing on your STC high-strike.

If you’re closing more contracts than you open, it’s a different story.

BTO +C100 6/2026 LEAP @89.50. Thank you.

 

[AM21]

i have discord now, thinking $100,000 capital let's grow it to ~$400k in 4 yrs in small steps, ROIC tiny 1% weekly

just a thought

View attachment 1027397

Please sign me up, @Yoona !

 

[Jim Holder]

Hopefully this holds:

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Ok, yesterday again I sold a lot of shares, letting my money be where my mouth is.
bought a lot of other stuff today, but 1 minute before the bottom STO 2 more jan '25 C180's for 27 dollars flat.
165 seems very low, but breaking 165 it will be a huge buy (against selling the stuff I bought today, .)
Just diversifying and raising the future profit%
other stuff:
shares MSTR
far away ITM calls PLTR
far away ITM calls SOFI
sept ITM calls PYPL
so I little happy (just of my may -C1500 SMC that is totally stuck (to high to buy back, but still enough OTM))

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTW, do I see yesterday's pattern returning on $TSLA?