Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

I'm going to be monitoring this guy's predictions for a while, see how they compare against the outcome

Interesting put activity he noted

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772865996279230882

 

[Yoona]

I'm going to be monitoring this guy's predictions for a while, see how they compare against the outcome

Interesting put activity he noted

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772865996279230882

yesterday's biggest

 

[phantasms]

Sold 4/19 monthly $200 calls on all my shares for $4.40 a pop. "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ "

A few weeks nice paid vacation.

Bought them back for about $1 profit per contract. Sell again today?

YOU RANG?

The year-end 10k for 2023 had deferred revenue related to auto sales at 3.536 billion at end of year.

That's not just FSD $, it also includes the "owed to customer" value of internet connectivity, free supercharging, and OTA updates
The 10k says they expect to recognize about 926 million of that amount in 2024.

Note from Dec 31 2022 to Dec 31 2023 they -added- 1.201 billion to the balance...but only recognized 595 million.... so assuming they add a roughly similar amount this year (and it may be higher because they're pushing free supercharging miles and free FSD as promos this year pretty hard) it means they'll add more liability than they recognize once again though by a smaller margin.

There's also other chunks of deferred revenue related to other things... car leasing and energy sales and leasing combined was north of 2B for example.


All that said though, others have admirably covered this is money Tesla already has in hand, the only thing recognizing it does is remove it as a liability from the balance sheet.


Moreover- if you refer back to the post of mine @tivoboy linked to- unlocking money beyond the % they currently recognize will likely require one or both of things 12.3x at L2 in NA only does not get you.

ChatGPK in the house.

 

[DarkKnight83]

It's hardware and software that can be replicated and has major implications on next gen vehicle in which your 480k/year turns into 4.8M a year. Toyota:Lexus is about 12:1. If you look at all major auto companies with both a luxury and an economy segment, the ratio are between 10-15 to 1. This is how Tesla came up with their numbers and all of a sudden, a working FSD will begin printing ridiculous amounts of money just on subscriptions. Then you add on money made from other Tesla ecosystem products like charging and services with that many cars dumped onto the streets.

You and I know that Tesla's valuation is usually what the market expects in 3 years time. If you think Tesla is over valued today, you must be shorting it to the ground long before they became profitable.

Those numbers are at least 5 years from now. By DCF it’s overvalued now. This means stock could stay flat for years. TSLA is a meme stock. I can’t short with logic.

 

[thenewguy1979]

SP did pump to close to 182 and fall-back at opening. Sign of weakness?

 

[Jim Holder]

3/28

4/05

 

[BornToFly]

I'm trying to decide if I give some of the premium back and roll my 175CC for next week up to 180CCs, to make them easier to roll up to 190 if necessary. I have the +170/-195 BPS for the 12th. Plan is to let the shares go, sell the +170, and take assignment on the -195P, or roll them for some premium first, if the SP starts to get away from me.

I used this dip to roll the -175CC up to -180CC. Maybe the -175CC would be safe next week, but I really don't want to lose those shares. Thanks to the dip, I essentially just lost the original difference in premium between the 175 and 180CCs, so it is as though I had sold 180CC to begin with. If the SP crashes next week on P&D, I can recoup some of the premium lost by rolling back down.

 

[thenewguy1979]

I keep my -182C and added some cheap 4/5 put spread +165P/-157.5 for .95

It failed the pump close to 182 this morning and 2hr RSI is back at 57.
Depending on next week PD may load the boat or not for ER.

Also STO -900P 4/5 for NVDA during the morning crazy dump.

 

[Max Plaid]

Rolled 100x TSLA 3/28 -c170 to 4/5 for net +$3.3 (closed low, waited a bit for a higher price to open, gained around 50c extra as a result, but a bit nerve-wracking as always)

7x NVDA -p900 & 2x SMCI -p1000 still in play for tomorrow, they can cook a bit longer yet

I'm on vacation, so out and about a bit, need to get these trades done when I can!

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm not entering shorts again until it fails a retest of $182 in the coming days.

Does this morning's fail @ $181.57 count?

 

[dl003]

Does this morning's fail @ $181.57 count?

View attachment 1032595

No. This is not the 2nd spike. Still consolidating.

 

[Jim Holder]

Spot GEX

Green lines below spot=Support/pinning
Red lines below spot=Fuels bearish momentum

Red lines above spot=Resistance/pinning
Green lines above spot=Fuels bullish momentum

GEX lines are not predictive of targets but of dealer support fueling momentum as trading moves toward them.


(15-min)

 

[dl003]

One way to play the short naked call / put game is to load up positions near 187. SL is a close daily close over 187. If that 2nd spike cannot close the day over 187 AND reach overbought on the 4H on the same day, it'd be very bearish.

Same scenario as this

Divergence and basing:

From an oversold state, if the stock is ready to rally, what I look for is an overbought reading on the 15m. From there, the stock should pull back a little as buyers are still skittish and sellers are still eager to get out.

For example, TSLA entered Oversold territory on the daily (the mother timeframe) on January 18th, before ER.
View attachment 1019273
Then on Monday the 22nd, the stock got to overbought on the 15m.
View attachment 1019276However, it was still far below the 10 SMA (green moving average) on the daily (the only one that matters for MA tracking purpose) and it would take a good ER to spike up and reclaim it. We already know what happened. That was not the bottom.
View attachment 1019278
Once the SP touched 180 after ER, it bounced back up and reach overbought on the 15m for the 2nd time on January 29th.
View attachment 1019279
After running up a bit more, it dropped again and carved out a lower low at 175 on Feb 5th. However, at the close on that day, we had what we didn't have before, a bullish divergence on the daily RSI. What it means is the stock made a lower low on the daily, but its RSI is less negative than it was on the 25th @ 180. There were big sellers who relentlessly sold the stock without giving it any breather since 265 to 180, which is visualized on both the price chart and the RSI chart. The slope of the decline was steep. However, when we go from Jan 25th to Feb 5th, those sellers seem to have disappeared and the sellers present on that day failed to bring the stock back to its old steep decline trajectory. That's what a bullish divergence means. We need a lower low on the SP after a few days of consolidation which represents the disappointment and panic stemmed from what seemed like a failed attempt at rallying; these late sellers would soon be proven wrong.

Within 2 days, the stock popped back up and took out the declining 10 SMA at 186.5, a show of strength.
View attachment 1019280
From here, we were looking for more show of strength to be registered on the 1h, 2h, 4h and daily timeframe. What is this show of strength? It's when the stock reaches Overbought on each of these timeframes. It takes progressively more buying to reach it on the daily than it does on the 4h than it does on the 2h than it does on the 1h.

The implication of reaching overbought on each of these timeframes is the stock will have a very high chance of breaking that high after some consolidation. The consolidation that comes after reaching Overbought is the result of buyers still being skittish in this area. They want to take their profit fast and safely here so the early peaks get sold into more quickly than the ones that form later.

On 2/9, the stock almost reached Overbought on the hourly at 194 very early in the morning, pulled back and then made another attempt at cracking 194 in the afternoon, resulting a double top pattern with lower RSI reading. This is a bearish divergence that shows buying has dried up and it's time for a pullback for the skittishly bullish buyers to digest their gain.
View attachment 1019284

And indeed it sold all the way down to 182 on Tuesday. This was when a lot of people started panicking and began preparing for a lower low. However, the stock had shown us strength in 3 ways:

1. Bullish divergence on the daily, which should trump bearish divergence on the hourly
2. A reclaim, although briefly, of the 10 daily SMA
3. Overbought reading on the hourly

Once we're done with the hourly, it was the 2h turn. The stock reached it late Thursday 2/15 and then reached a peak of 201.3 early Friday 2/16. So it's shown strength on the 2h. Just like what happened on the hourly, what we can expect from here is:

1. Some consolidation that should last a bit longer than 2 days, which was the length of the last consolidation.
2. As the stock has reached overbought on the 2h, it should rally at the end of this consolidation and take out the peak on Friday

View attachment 1019286

However, as we're approaching the strong 209.3 resistance. Keep an eye out for a few things:

1. Yes, the stock has shown strength on the 2h, but will it show it on the 4h and take us up further? Meaning, once it has taken out 201.30 (closing over 201.3 on any 2h candle, not just breaking it intra-candle), will the next candles be green until it's reached overbought on the 4h?
2. On the day when it takes out 201.3, will the highest closing price far exceed 201.3, resulting in an even higher RSI reading on the 2h compared to the peak of 72.43 on Friday? If not, we're just going to have a bigger bearish divergence, now on the 2h, leading to another pullback which can morph into a full blown correction, possibly marking the end of this recovery.

1 and 2 are very closely related. If either one happens, the other often follows. However, we will be happy with just one. If none happens, then be very careful on that day and prepare for a steep correction. I sure hope the stock can go further than just the 2h timeframe but we trade the chart, not what we wish to happen.

For the record, the 4h RSI is right now sitting at 60.8. To reach 70, I estimate it needs to reach 215 minimum. The good news is it had reached it in both of the big DCBs we had in 2023.
View attachment 1019292

 

[Jim Holder]

One way to play the short naked call / put game is to load up positions near $187. SL is a close daily close over 187. If that 2nd spike cannot close the day over 187 AND reach overbought on the 4H on the same day, it'd be very bearish.

Same scenario as this

Thanks for this. Would the short call strike be -C200 5/17 and put +P160 5/17?

 

[Jim Holder]

Chop on the menu for now

 

[Jim Holder]

GEX gravity appears to be to the right/up:

 

[EVNow]

Already closed out 155 puts. Have 160 puts and 195 calls, should easily close them out tomorrow.

Not planning to sell anything now for next week - because of P&D on 2nd (?). Will sell after P&D comes out.

 

[dl003]

I'm going to be monitoring this guy's predictions for a while, see how they compare against the outcome

Interesting put activity he noted

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772865996279230882

His reasoning resonates with mine on the subject of churns.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772329384814461114

There's no money in pumping or dumping 1 stock forever. I don't look for fundamental reasons to expect a spike as the most aggressive dead cats can happen during a period of weak fundamentals. When everyone is positioned bearish and MMs can't sell calls, they want to pump it up. Weak fundamentals = short windows of no-news or slightly positive news = aggressive dead cats.

 

[EVNow]

Moreover- if you refer back to the post of mine @tivoboy linked to- unlocking money beyond the % they currently recognize will likely require one or both of things 12.3x at L2 in NA only does not get you.

I mostly agree with you.

But ..... actually we don't know how they recognized the big chunk they did last time. Its possible they kept some in the "back pocket" for a rainy day ....

ps : I used to do quarterly P*L forecasts. Stopped doing that after Tesla demonstrated they could arbitrarily up or down the regulatory credits they recognized in a quarter.

 

[EVNow]

a working FSD will begin printing ridiculous amounts of money

So will working cold fusion.