Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Looking ahead again, 6/28 still looks ripe for $200+ with good confluence on all three Gamma/Vanna/Delta, although as we've seen in the recent past, a bullish GEX posture doesn't mean follow-through.

Same for 7/5/24 (week of Q2 P&D), with OI up in the $220's...
Perhaps market expecting a meet/beat vs bad miss (?)

I read in a news article this morning that consensus was 446k, absolute zero chance of that I would say, I still think 400k will be tough based on the numbers I'm seeing

Of course TSLA doesn't necessarily follow the fundamentals, does it, "market forces" I'm told...

For the 5 European countries we get reported daily (NO, SP, S, NL,DK), which are pretty representative, we are 25% down on Q1, sure this could turn-around in the next two weeks, but would essentially need a record month to do so, which I doubt is going too happen

IMO it would be best to be out of weekly shorts on the 2nd July, could move hard in either direction

 

[Max Plaid]

@Yoona - can't PM you regarding Montreal visit, can you PM me? Or Message on X??

Cheers

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona - can't PM you regarding Montreal visit, can you PM me? Or Message on X??

Cheers

sorry!!!! i will be in poland then munich then go on cruise

 

[thenewguy1979]

Waiting for @dl003 to call bottom......any day now.....

The last ER showed us the PD numbers doesn't matter as we thought it would.

FSD 12.3 Good - Pump
RT - Pump
China Visit - Pump
missed PD by wide margin - cricket.........

Maybe PD still bad but offsetted by others factors - increase margin, FSD 12.4 coming out, more RT news, video of dancing optimus........

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I read in a news article this morning that consensus was 446k, absolute zero chance of that I would say, I still think 400k will be tough based on the numbers I'm seeing

Of course TSLA doesn't necessarily follow the fundamentals, does it, "market forces" I'm told...

For the 5 European countries we get reported daily (NO, SP, S, NL,DK), which are pretty representative, we are 25% down on Q1, sure this could turn-around in the next two weeks, but would essentially need a record month to do so, which I doubt is going too happen

IMO it would be best to be out of weekly shorts on the 2nd July, could move hard in either direction

View attachment 1057611

If you're actually tracking these, then you'll see that the "wave" is back in effect to some degree this quarter. Norway is rocketing higher. Italy just set a daily record in what will assuredly be an all time record month. You also left out Korea and other asian pacific countries that saw record 2nd month deliveries to the tune of thousands. We'll have to wait to see what their 3rd month will be, if any. The Asia Pacific countries actually offset the weakness in Europe.

And if some of these EU countries continue to rebound into the rest of this month, Q2 will actually catch up to Q1. If you factor in Asia Pacific countries, it will be way ahead of Q1.

Then factor in China 10-12% higher than Q1 and the same in North America, and 425-440k is not out of the question at all. If the numbers come within that range, I think it will be treated well by Wall St.

 

[Patrick66]

The last ER showed us the PD numbers doesn't matter as we thought it would.

FSD 12.3 Good - Pump
RT - Pump
China Visit - Pump
missed PD by wide margin - cricket.........

Maybe PD still bad but offsetted by others factors - increase margin, FSD 12.4 coming out, more RT news, video of dancing optimus........

I'm sure there could be an optimistic spin to P&D, but on the face of it I can't see how. FSD 12.4.x is not going to be significantly better than 12.3.6 in time for the report, RT is still a month away and without 12.4.x being a meaningful improvement why would people have higher confidence? Even absorbing the 50k excess from last quarter isn't enough to change the story.

Personally I am still stuck seeing a contrarian view for all the current machinations. I see a significant drop coming first relative to macro market, and then a stable recovery towards 200 over the course of Q3. IMO the reality is there are so many better investment options out there than TSLA that it is hard to justify it attracting capital.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm sure there could be an optimistic spin to P&D, but on the face of it I can't see how. FSD 12.4.x is not going to be significantly better than 12.3.6 in time for the report, RT is still a month away and without 12.4.x being a meaningful improvement why would people have higher confidence? Even absorbing the 50k excess from last quarter isn't enough to change the story.

Personally I am still stuck seeing a contrarian view for all the current machinations. I see a significant drop coming first relative to macro market, and then a stable recovery towards 200 over the course of Q3. IMO the reality is there are so many better investment options out there than TSLA that it is hard to justify it attracting capital.

A) If Wall St sees that demand and especially margins are rebounding, the rally in the stock will be outsized/overdone to the upside in the short term. I personally think margins will surprise to the upside. No end of quarters massive inventory discounts this time in the North America. Lots of potential COGS reductions if you've been following the cost of batteries for the past 6 months. Likely will be lots of bandwagon traders jumping about to ride the momentum that will surely exit within that short term. But again, it will have the effect of throwing gasoline on the fire that just got sparked.

and

B) A factor no one seems to acknowledge or care about, but Tesla actually gave crystal clear guidance for Energy for 2024. 75% YoY growth. In Q1, we barely saw any growth. Meaning, that 75% growth is now compressed into 3 quarters. Meaning it will show as more like 90-100% growth YoY. If there's no/little growth in Q2 YoY, then that means the growth is compressed into just Q3/Q4, so revenue growth is going to come at higher %'s in Q3/Q4. Tesla obviously knows when revenue recognition will happen for projects throughout this year. This past earnings call was the first time they've ever given clear guidance, like an actual clear number, for Energy.

 

[Jim Holder]

IMO the reality is there are so many better investment options out there than TSLA that it is hard to justify it attracting capital.

I’ve been scoping around for those better options to possibly jump ship for at least 50% of my TSLA but seems wherever I look they’re all already at or exceeded ATH. The right time was 2022/2023 lol. Unless you mean something else?

 

[thenewguy1979]

NVDA.

I can smelled it easily reaching 150 soon. This is one of those stock that buying LEAP and HOLD would work out great.

There that post the others day about buying LEAP in January 2026 for 250. Got @tivoboy sealed of approval.

 

[Jim Holder]

NVDA.

I can smelled it easily reaching 150 soon. This is one of those stock that buying LEAP and HOLD would work out great.

There that post the others day about buying LEAP in January 2026 for 250. Got @tivoboy sealed of approval.

Volland today said something about a rebalancing in XLE coming up by end of this week (?) which will force them to buy more NVDA which should easily push it to $150, of course NFA.

 

[Jim Holder]

Anyone chance a guess what this play is?

Someone sold 3,840 -C150 9/20/24 @41.58 for $16 million
B/E stock price: $191.60
Looks like an expensive bet—with urgency below bid—that TSLA will be going through the trapdoor at some point.

I threw it into OptionStrat and with IV @~50 he just needs under $180 to start making $$ (profit grows greatly the lower TSLA get below that; but loses $$ above $190). If so perhaps it's not THAT bearish

(He's down -$84k meanwhile...)

LINK TO VIEW TRADE:
https://optionstrat.com/ALaiTQpZSrO7

[ignore Max Profit figure, that's if TSLA goes to $0]

 

[Patrick66]

I’ve been scoping around for those better options to possibly jump ship for at least 50% of my TSLA but seems wherever I look they’re all already at or exceeded ATH. The right time was 2022/2023 lol. Unless you mean something else?

I would screen companies for high IV and then look at the business model; worrying about ATH is a lagging concern. From an options perspective it is a short-term play that you want to milk for consistent medium term returns.

There are also a few companies that have much lower IV than it seems like they should. I haven't done enough research on them yet, but calls in a few seem to have good potential.

As for NVDA... now the largest company means a whole lot of funds are underweighted. We still have a good window where selling puts has outsized return for risk. My target is to get NVDA to 20% of my long term holdings; I am at around 5% now. I can get assigned on a lot of puts before I consider it a liability.

I am looking for options to add a reliable 5-10% return for my broader portfolio (and to have fun), so my perspective might not be representative of your needs. I just think that the first ingredient is confidence in a company. I am lacking that in TSLA right now.

 

[Jim Holder]

Cautionary tale from a post on X:

“I have this crazy 20x -C12.00 NVDA that I’ve been rolling for last 2 years. Would you let it go or roll it, or buy back at least a few calls. To buy back all I need $222K. Some a “smarty-pants” options teacher went to my account and set up those covered calls 2 years ago. I keep rolling them out. Now to buy back cost $200k+. I can buy back some but mostly give away for $12 when NVDA was $135. I’m hurt. Is there any other way besides BTC?”

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting use case of Bookmap with live trading within the interface

See from 8:00 onward for live action:

 

[Yoona]

probably some movement 12ish

predicted at market open... (i was right!)

ooops typo i meant 1pmish

the bond market doesn't lie; if the auction is good, stocks will rip (see 1pm sharp auction drop and TSLA climbed)

same thing happened with SMCI (headfake stock drop at 1pm)

also with SPY (headfake stock drop at 1pm)