Lately I've come to realise that weekend theta - at least for me - isn't worth it.
Any news can come out, so many things can happen, and there's no way to manage positions over weekend..
So I mostly sell Bull Put spreads on monday, depending on action. Some $50 wide spread, somewhere below max pain, or at a price I'm reasonably certain will expire otm on friday. If action during week is stable like this week, I'll leg it into Iron Condor. If all is good, I'll be out of the market over the weekend.
If I have to manage a trade, then I will roll to next week.
Been working fine, I have made my targets for weekly premium, it's about as much as my monthly salary used to be.. so officially retired now at 42 with 4x the income I had from my job. Yii-haa!
And I have scheduled delivery for my Model Y LR on monday
I, on the other hand, don't mind weekend theta, assuming that I can roll away a bad week (which I've had to do). So I wanted to share some of my thoughts for the coming weeks that I plan to put trades on for today and get some feedback.
9/10 expiration already has nearly 300k OI and a max pain of 725. I'm going to look to sell puts at 725 and 715, expecting support from max pain at 725 and technicals at 715. I'm guessing we see resistance around 750-765, but I'll just wait until Monday and see.
9/17 I'm guessing will be a down week, but I'm just not sure how. FSD 10 should be released to the beta testers over that weekend, and if Elon is correct, the news should be very positive. We often don't see the catalysts that really move the stock coming (S&P inclusion hit about 2 weeks earlier than I would have ever thought possible, for instance), but MMs have a lot of incentive to push us down. Since that's quad witching, just an overall down market dragging us down is possible. I've got calls sold at 765 @ $9 for this week.
10/1 expiration looks like a very good chance to be a breakout week, but I'll sell puts for 10/8. FSD Beta button
might come out 9/24, which means the wider public gets to experience it over that weekend. Presumably this is bullish. Also, anticipation of a blow out Q3 delivery number, which should be coming out early the following week, should push the SP higher. So I'm looking to sell some ITM BPS for that following week, probably around 765 short strike, meaning I expect us to top 765 by expiration at 10/8.
For all of these trades more than 1 week out, I'm using maybe 10% of my firepower total, so not massive positions. I still do most of my trading week to week, but I like to have positions on that are a month or so out to take advantage of unexpected moves in the SP and gather theta.
Overall, I think that the market isn't pricing in immanent TSLA success on FSD, and if it becomes clear from FSD 10 and the beta button that Tesla actually is the leader here by a wide margin (which I think they are), the stock may go 2019-2020 style nuts on us. At the very least if the math on FSD take rate goes from ~20% to ~70% on a "good enough" FSD, with a lot of existing Tesla owners hopping on, that should blow earnings estimates out of the water to a degree that is scary.