Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Tslynk67]

My 710c for last week was called away, as expected. I now have sold a 1Oct 670p for $6.9 just to make something. My margin isn't enough still to buy higher with my long term PUT out there, and at least the 1Oct pays decently. I may close this 1Oct put next week depending on stock movement, but I don't expect it to go that low, not when 3rd quarter numbers just around the corner that Friday.

Not advice, but for me, a 10/1 p670 is riskier than a 9/17 p695 for $2 less - reason being the SP has far more time to move for the p670 to go ITM, plus you can sell 3 puts weekly in place of one for October and get 2-3x times the premium

Others might have differing opinions

 

[corduroy]

Rolled half of my BPSs from 680/580 to 9/17 690/590s for $3 credit. Still holding my BPSs 700/600s expiring tomorrow. I'm getting into rhythm of rolling/holding half of my more conservative positions over the weekend and then trying to open more with more aggressive strikes for the current week on Mon or Tues. I'm still not doing any calls side stuff right now.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Opened some -$800/+$850 bear call spreads for $0.96 per contract this morning, while keeping my covered -$800c position open. Also rolled my -$690p position to -$730p to milk an additional $1.00 in premium per contract. Will open more on a push below $750.

Rolled my -$730p position (profit at ~93% including the original $5.00 premium from the $690s) to 9/17 at a $7.60 credit before the close today. I'm feeling bullish, and think max pain will rise as positions are opened for next week. Left some room for myself to open more if we move downward instead. Still holding all of my covered call and bear call spread positions expiring 9/10, ranging from $780 to $800, as I don't think they're going to end up ITM. Will look to open call positions for 9/17 on Monday.

 

[cbh03]

BTC my $740 CC instead of rolling as I could only roll to $750 on 9/17 while still maintaining a credit. I took the loss instead of rolling as I believe there is a high chance that we close well above $750 next week.

Also, I rolled up my -$700/$550 to -$730/$595 for this week to (partially) offset the above loss. I plan to open some BPS for next week tomorrow. Maybe some $720/620 given the wall of puts at $720.

 

[AquaY]

Late in the day I decided to STO a small conservative IC for 9/24 580/680 840/940 for a $ 5.10 credit to have one position for 9/24
I like to trade the current week strongly, while maintaining positions in the next 2 weeks .

Seems a lot of us are waiting until tomorrow and Monday to open up more trades.

 

[FS_FRA]

BTC my 09/10 790c @ $0.10 shortly before closing, which is 94% profit. Feeling good about it, especially as I had no time to pay attention to anything closer to ATM.
Will look to open a new position on Monday, as tomorrow I’m travelling.

 

[EVCollies]

Quite a 700 call wall for 9/17, would this just melt away come Triple Witching Monday?

 

[Chenkers]

Quite with 700 call wall for 9/17, would this just melt away come Triple Witching Monday?

The OI graph should change quite a lot by Monday/Tuesday. I'd expect more of the 700 calls to have been closed out and clearer Put walls to develop up to around 740. Either way I won't be doing any trades until Monday and possibly even Tuesday if I don't see enough clarity in the OI chart by Monday.

This week was another lesson that it often doesn't pay to place trades like IC's or CC on the previous Friday as it's better to catch the early rise on Monday (Tuesday this week) for the best premiums. This week has seen MM's expend a lot of effort to keep TSLA under 760 and will require more to push it down to their target. This should typically translate to a decent pop on Monday and when combined with high IV early in trading, should result in a good time to sell call related options.

 

[M3Rider]

Just started reading this thread and found a bunch of interesting ideas I was thinking of on my own, but I usually did conservative bets with limited income/upside.

My good week is a $1/CC premium and $10/put premium(I go with more risk, sometimes ITM contracts on the put side assuming SP will only go up from here based on all the bullish news & ok rolling). I'm more averse to the CC risk, afraid of SP running away from me like was the case in 2019 growth.

I mostly open a position and let it expire worthless on Fri, but have also done a few 2/week trades and noticed how they work out better.

Half of my margin is locked with LT puts and margin call put rolls to Dec from the mar/may timeframe shenanigans, which I now realize I need to unlock for weekly-only use.
Anyway, looking for some productive trading with what's left.

Re: next week.
An interesting week indeed.
#1 High OI on low strikes, will MMs try to go as low as they can? MP will rise no doubt, but still, can they target 710-720?
Therefore, does it make any sense to sell high put strikes rn? Or wait till say Tue and see what MMs are trying to achieve?

#2 FSD Beta 10 over the weekend. CCs worry me like never before. I realize institutions will be slow to catch up. But there may be enough individual investors with a few $B on the sidelines, who may watch youtube and decide to buy. I know Q3 will be a watershed moment when MMs have a high chance of losing control.
But Beta 10 comes before and has some lower chance of having this effect.

It amazes me a bit to see bets being made as if the next weeks is just like the one before it, when it seems some major differences are asking to be considered. Probably a false alarm.

 

[Chenkers]

Cool. does anyone know if an IV chart like that exists for IBRK? Their volatility viewer seems more long term than this.

In IBKR TWS go to New Window/Options Analysis/Volatility Over Time/Implied Volatility by Expiry. This will bring up a new graph showing volatility changes over time for selected expiries. You can customise the graph by selecting the specific expiry dates and time period you want to see.

 

[PastorDave]

...

Re: next week.
An interesting week indeed.
#1 High OI on low strikes, will MMs try to go as low as they can? MP will rise no doubt, but still, can they target 710-720?
Therefore, does it make any sense to sell high put strikes rn? Or wait till say Tue and see what MMs are trying to achieve?

#2 FSD Beta 10 over the weekend. CCs worry me like never before. I realize institutions will be slow to catch up. But there may be enough individual investors with a few $B on the sidelines, who may watch youtube and decide to buy. I know Q3 will be a watershed moment when MMs have a high chance of losing control.
But Beta 10 comes before and has some lower chance of having this effect.

It amazes me a bit to see bets being made as if the next weeks is just like the one before it, when it seems some major differences are asking to be considered. Probably a false alarm.

There's a strong technical support around 732, and a gap to fill at that level, so I expect that to be the target price next week, for at least a dip to that range. But like you said, FSD 10 makes me doubt my thesis. Every time I doubt the MMs power, I am punished, however... I'll probably close out of some profitable BPS for that week tomorrow and on Monday sell calls unless we decisively break out over 765.

 

[AquaY]

There's a strong technical support around 732, and a gap to fill at that level, so I expect that to be the target price next week, for at least a dip to that range. But like you said, FSD 10 makes me doubt my thesis. Every time I doubt the MMs power, I am punished, however... I'll probably close out of some profitable BPS for that week tomorrow and on Monday sell calls unless we decisively break out over 765.

Many think that FSD 10 if it's a great success this weekend will quickly translate to a rally next week and I'm thinking no matter how good it is it won't matter much at all.
FSD is not an obvious positive indicator like sales or revenue numbers.\
FSD is a complicated option and a successful Beta launch will take time for people to accept. IMO

The media will down play it .
Some by design others by apathy. FUD of course will counter any positive article with more stories abut Teslas crashing into police vehicles and the like.
I read an article the other day titled " Tesla crashes into house killing 2 people"

Reading the article it stated in around the third paragraph that the car was NOT on autopilot.
Yet the headline says Tesla crashes into house killing 2.
Has there ever been an article titled " Ford crashes into a house killing 2" or Chevy, BMW, Honda etc?
Never. But since it's a Tesla it makes the headline and most won't even bother with reading that it was being manually driven like any other car.

This is the actual headline on yahoo about the same story

Airborne Tesla smashes into Florida house killing two people​

My feeling is that no matter how good FSD10 is it will be buried in the short run.
Just my thoughts on it. I could be wrong

 

[jeewee3000]

Many think that FSD 10 if it's a great success this weekend will quickly translate to a rally next week and I'm thinking no matter how good it is it won't matter much at all.
FSD is not an obvious positive indicator like sales or revenue numbers.\
FSD is a complicated option and a successful Beta launch will take time for people to accept. IMO

The media will down play it .
Some by design others by apathy. FUD of course will counter any positive article with more stories abut Teslas crashing into police vehicles and the like.
I read an article the other day titled " Tesla crashes into house killing 2 people"

Reading the article it stated in around the third paragraph that the car was NOT on autopilot.
Yet the headline says Tesla crashes into house killing 2.
Has there ever been an article titled " Ford crashes into a house killing 2" or Chevy, BMW, Honda etc?
Never. But since it's a Tesla it makes the headline and most won't even bother with reading that it was being manually driven like any other car.

This is the actual headline on yahoo about the same story

Airborne Tesla smashes into Florida house killing two people​

My feeling is that no matter how good FSD10 is it will be buried in the short run.
Just my thoughts on it. I could be wrong

Agree on FSD beta 10 release having no effect on the SP. Most people/investors don't know this will be released tonight, so they won't be on youtube searching for test drive videos.

The P&D numbers beginning of October however, those will IMO give the SP a boost so I will be careful with cc's that expire shortly after.

 

[Drezil]

closed the last of my -765c with slight profit .. as i see the danger of a breakout luring (but not probable) and i don't want to take any chances for a few bucks.

Also as i now do lcc (more: mid-term-calls, not LEAPs) as my primary cc i also dabble in calendar-trading.
I currently have 15/10 735c & 09/17 710c that cost about the same since some days.
If the SP goes down, i move the 735 -> 710, realizing losses, but giving me more delta-exposure (while doubling theta!). Difference is a Δ of ~20$ (δ of ~0.2) per option. If we then go up to 760, then i roll them back 710 -> 735, milking the surplus delta.

The last days i usually rolled 710 -> 735 for ~ -2$ and 735 -> 710 for ~ -0.10$ to 0.75$ - WHILE ALSO milking the CC against that position.
On a pushdown today at 14:00 or 15:00 or so i will roll them to 710 again & reverse 50% of that on mondays spike - while also opening CC to reduce Theta.

Do you others also play calendar-things with the calls that back your CCs? Do you like that idea?

 

[Yoona]

closed the last of my -765c with slight profit .. as i see the danger of a breakout luring (but not probable) and i don't want to take any chances for a few bucks.

Also as i now do lcc (more: mid-term-calls, not LEAPs) as my primary cc i also dabble in calendar-trading.
I currently have 15/10 735c & 09/17 710c that cost about the same since some days.
If the SP goes down, i move the 735 -> 710, realizing losses, but giving me more delta-exposure (while doubling theta!). Difference is a Δ of ~20$ (δ of ~0.2) per option. If we then go up to 760, then i roll them back 710 -> 735, milking the surplus delta.

The last days i usually rolled 710 -> 735 for ~ -2$ and 735 -> 710 for ~ -0.10$ to 0.75$ - WHILE ALSO milking the CC against that position.
On a pushdown today at 14:00 or 15:00 or so i will roll them to 710 again & reverse 50% of that on mondays spike - while also opening CC to reduce Theta.

Do you others also play calendar-things with the calls that back your CCs? Do you like that idea?

i wish i understood even half of this... for real!

 

[AquaY]

i wish i understood even half of this... for real!

If you don't even understand half of it I'm not even going to try. LOL

 

[Tempus]

STO a variety of BPS yesterday
620-720 for 9/17
600-700 for 9/24

All of my cc's are closed out.

For today - if we get a nice rise, I will look to sell some cc's for next week - probably conservative over 800 if i get any premium for that. Will also look at closing some of the BPS early if that opportunity presents. (haven't tried that yet - have been doing mostly 80-90% profit before closing to this point). If not, will wait for next week and see how we run then.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

The OI graph should change quite a lot by Monday/Tuesday. I'd expect more of the 700 calls to have been closed out and clearer Put walls to develop up to around 740. Either way I won't be doing any trades until Monday and possibly even Tuesday if I don't see enough clarity in the OI chart by Monday.

This week was another lesson that it often doesn't pay to place trades like IC's or CC on the previous Friday as it's better to catch the early rise on Monday (Tuesday this week) for the best premiums. This week has seen MM's expend a lot of effort to keep TSLA under 760 and will require more to push it down to their target. This should typically translate to a decent pop on Monday and when combined with high IV early in trading, should result in a good time to sell call related options.

I’ve notice this also so then why not do a BPS on Friday and add the call side of the IC on Monday?

 

[willow_hiller]

Bought my very first option today. Something cheap, fully expecting to lose most of it as a form of tuition to the school of experience.

Based the selection on a Monte Carlo simulation of possible options values given historical drift and volatility. I tried both volatility over the last 5 years, as well as volatility over the last 30 days, and I'm kinda shocked how volatile TSLA still is, despite having calmed down a bit.

For 5 years, I'm getting a daily μ of 0.0016 and a σ of 0.0373, and getting simulated underlying stock values after 5 weeks of trading like:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
334.9 695.0 771.0 780.0 855.7 1436.2

And for 30 days, I'm getting a daily μ of 0.0050 and a σ of 0.020, and getting simulated underlying stock values after 5 weeks like:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
575.7 778.8 823.0 825.6 869.3 1149.0

Is anyone else attempting similar simulations? And if so, how are your parameters coming out? I know TSLA is in a period of relative calm right now, but honestly I would be scared to sell a covered call expiring 5 weeks out for any strikes less than 850 knowing that it going ITM is just outside of the 75th percentile of possibilities!

 

[Yoona]

I’ve notice this also so then why not do a BPS on Friday and add the call side of the IC on Monday?

stop copying my trick!

thu/fri - STO BPS on fast dip
mon - STO BCS on fast peak

both are Market Orders coz i'm impatient and lazy