LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I miss selling puts. Still have that Jan22 $610 put I sold back in March time frame, so it eats up my margin.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
That's the problem selling long-dated calls, ties stuff up...
lol, - if you want to you can sell 06/2023 $1400 puts and for each contract sold you can buy 100 shares of TSLA right now.
Then sell CC's against them! Infinite money achieved!!!!
As we are talking about next week already:
Open Interest from earlier today:
So i would bet that the SP will land between 720-750 next week - depending on how many calls expire instead of getting rolled.
But with AI-Day i would not play the upper side above 750 with CC after thursday.
But selling 690p should be safe. I did a 715/680 BPS this week to gamble a bit with room to the upside. Will roll half of it to 710/680 if the SP allows. If we don't hit above 720 until friday they will get rolled if SP is near the upper strike.
Open Interest from earlier today:
So i would bet that the SP will land between 720-750 next week - depending on how many calls expire instead of getting rolled.
But with AI-Day i would not play the upper side above 750 with CC after thursday.
But selling 690p should be safe. I did a 715/680 BPS this week to gamble a bit with room to the upside. Will roll half of it to 710/680 if the SP allows. If we don't hit above 720 until friday they will get rolled if SP is near the upper strike.
Is there actually anything to the idea of a split beyond a bunch of people on an investor board looking at each other and saying that it could happen. After all it is the 1 year anniversary since something correlated but not causal, some people want a second instance of an event that previously pushed the stock price up a lot, etc..?
As somebody that's been following Tesla throughout the multi-year "going nowhere" period I am firmly of the belief that an important reason for that big price rise was that the spring had been winding for years. By "spring winding" I mean that the short sellers that were artificially manipulating the share price downward had a larger and larger accumulation of manufactured shares accumulated over years, not just a few weeks or months.
This time around we've got a small number of months for those to be building - barely anything. Where others see a spring winding, I see that possibility but with a magnitude that is trivial compared to the previous situation. If I were to be guessing I would think it'll be at least a year until Elon pulls that lever again.
I do like the idea of a shareholder vote to expand the number of authorized shares. That puts flexibility into the hands of the board and might create the desired dynamic without actually expanding the number of shares.
Anyway - all of my thoughts are also speculation with no basis in anything other than my own guesswork. Has there actually been anything from the company or some authoritative inside source?
Remarkable - I wake up and there's nothing to do today!
But I have been thinking about the last couple of weeks and as much as I like the results (and I REALLY do like the results) it's also consuming too much of my mental energy. The time itself isn't as bad - I'm getting pretty efficient at waking up, seeing the early move, taking my profits / establish the new positions, and then ignore it more than not.
But the mental energy being consumed is too much. I'm thinking about it too much. I'm thinking about how this would look if it worked so well every week of the year, and that is a paved road to .. uhmm ... heck. I've been on that road before
So at least for awhile I'm going to shift from this week / next week options, to next week / week after options. I know that I'll still get early close opportunities but they won't happen daily as they have been recently. Right now everything I've got open has the 8/20 expiration. It being Wednesday if there were any new positions being opened today they would be for 8/27. If it were Mon/Tue then I'd be opening for 8/20.
The idea is to have at least 8 full trading days to expiration (an open on Tuesday) up to 12 full trading days (an open on Wednesday). I say "full" trading days to refer to the clock that starts ticking the day after open (so I also have the day of opening for the trade to start moving). Any partial or market closed trading days count in that number (to the degree that matters). I think that adding 1 week to my trading window will reduce the daily open/close dynamic, though I also expect it to cut into the actual profit pretty deeply.
And we'll see how that goes. When I tried something similar back at the beginning of the year it lasted a couple of months and then I was back to weeklies (3 to 7 full trading days to expiration).
But I have been thinking about the last couple of weeks and as much as I like the results (and I REALLY do like the results) it's also consuming too much of my mental energy. The time itself isn't as bad - I'm getting pretty efficient at waking up, seeing the early move, taking my profits / establish the new positions, and then ignore it more than not.
But the mental energy being consumed is too much. I'm thinking about it too much. I'm thinking about how this would look if it worked so well every week of the year, and that is a paved road to .. uhmm ... heck. I've been on that road before
So at least for awhile I'm going to shift from this week / next week options, to next week / week after options. I know that I'll still get early close opportunities but they won't happen daily as they have been recently. Right now everything I've got open has the 8/20 expiration. It being Wednesday if there were any new positions being opened today they would be for 8/27. If it were Mon/Tue then I'd be opening for 8/20.
The idea is to have at least 8 full trading days to expiration (an open on Tuesday) up to 12 full trading days (an open on Wednesday). I say "full" trading days to refer to the clock that starts ticking the day after open (so I also have the day of opening for the trade to start moving). Any partial or market closed trading days count in that number (to the degree that matters). I think that adding 1 week to my trading window will reduce the daily open/close dynamic, though I also expect it to cut into the actual profit pretty deeply.
And we'll see how that goes. When I tried something similar back at the beginning of the year it lasted a couple of months and then I was back to weeklies (3 to 7 full trading days to expiration).
Alright if useful I made a different thread for options on other stocks
teslamotorsclub.com
The Options on Other Stocks Thread
I have no high conviction interest in any other stocks other than Tesla, but I do have high conviction in taking advantage of anomalous situations that happen sporadically. This thread will be about that exploration for me, and anyone else who wants to discuss their options / trading plays on...
teslamotorsclub.com
No, there's no indication of a pending stock-split whatsoever, other than some cryptic interpretations of Elon's Tweets and a lot of HODLers wetting their panties over the idea
I mean imagine if you just held $TSLA and had no means to buy more, it looks like a long road from here. I agree with you, of course, last year $TSLA was a perfect storm of suppression for years and some artificial catalysts that broke the spell. And yes, the stock overheat itself in January, that's obvious. Even now, a lot of future execution is built into the price. I could imagine a 2x over the next 12 months, but 10x, very improbably, even with a split, Model 2 and FSD Robotaxies all on the same day
A question - mostly rhetorical - but something for everybody to be thinking about that seem to be getting closer and closer ATM in their trades (which has include me especially with 725 strike calls, but also on the put side):I’m still holding -p700s, -p710s, -c722.50s, and -c725s for this week. I looked at rolling the puts to next week, but the premium improvement was only about $8-$9. Since I got $13 last week, I’ll wait until Thursday or Friday to roll the puts, though I’m contemplating letting the p710s exercise. Along those lines, does MaxPain & SP take a dump on Friday BECAUSE all of us close out the puts and roll to the next week? I’d like to think that we have that much influence.
Expecting the calls to expire worthless per @Chenkers and @Lycanthrope SP predictions. Will reopen -c755s on Monday.
Are we pulling in closer to the share price due to technical analysis that leaves us highly confident in what will happen with the share price, or is this also at least partly driven by a premium / credit result we are seeking? The shrinking IV should make for smaller and smaller credits assuming reasonably constant distance from the share price.
I pose this hypothetical because a sudden jump in IV will be associated with a sudden jump in the daily moves of the stock. Are we ready for a $50 daily move instead of these recent $5 daily moves? Those $50 daily moves aren't very far in the rear view mirror.
Put another way - if IV is suddenly a lot lower than Historical Volatility (or as I think of it - realized volatility), is that going to hurt badly?
Not specific to you @ReddyLeaf - just using your post as a takeoff point for the idea.
AquaY
Member
Another reason I believe is human nature. You gain confidence with being profitable over time. Then you start getting cocky or greedy.
" If I just had done closer to ATM trades i would have made so much more!"
Not saying that actual analysis isn't part of it.
Also gaining experience is supposed to make us better about understanding our risk/rewards but I think you can't avoid the element of human nature and emotional thinking
My 2 cents. From the last announcement letter here, it says why Tesla did the split.
"...to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors."
At the time of the decision to split, they might have been considering many factors other than 'accessibility of stock ownership', but if we just use that reason then it would make sense for it to happen again as the stock is about what it was when they made the decision to split.
I'm thinking the decision was made around May thru June when the stock was running upwards to 1K/share (pre-split of course). I'd expect they were thinking that if they split 5:1 then retail investors could buy a single share for $200 and that seems 'accessible'.
In hindsight, it didn't work as the stock climbed, so using that same thinking, I'd bet they vote at the next shareholders meeting to allow for up to 10:1 and do a split of less than that at some point prior to Oct before earnings (as those will be amazing) which would allow the share price to be $150 to $200 prior to earnings to allow for folks to get at least one share.
If this ends up being the case with low IV and small stock moves - then closer to the money would be safer in that situation.... Right?
I would LOVE having it in DOS .. then it would be performant at least..Love the MS-DOS, mid-90's feel
The IBKR TWS is just a Java Bloatware with an interface from the 90ies .. sometimes reaction/redraw-times of the application are in the second-range.
I already thought about writing my own interface with the IBKR-API.. to not have to deal with it anymore...
I would be open to licencing it ..
In a low IV / small stock moves, then yeah - closer to the money is the way to go. It's sort of a requirement to keep the option commissions from becoming the primary beneficiary.
The rhetorical question - Tesla has a history of much higher IV / HV. One of the way that option sellers get into trouble is selling (which is always based on IV) and then experiencing significantly higher "realized volatility" or historical volatility. In effect we don't get paid enough for the risk we take on when HV rises faster than IV. So are we accounting for that sort of reversal? Do we think it's down permanently (I don't; opinions will vary of course).
I don't have enough options experience or knowledge to put this into the right theoretical context and terminology. The observation though is that all of us are moving closer to the money. Even @Lycanthrope who has needed to go ITM
I don't assign any good/bad or other value judgement - just an observation.In fact I mostly am saying this out loud because it's something I just started thinking about for myself. Getting too close to the share price, plus bad position management on my part (arguably it was primarily the bad management) is how I got myself into trouble and 'lost money' (large individual trade losses, still profitable overall; it's a good 'lost money' context). By saying it out loud it's helping me think it through more systematically for myself
@adiggsRemarkable - I wake up and there's nothing to do today!
But I have been thinking about the last couple of weeks and as much as I like the results (and I REALLY do like the results) it's also consuming too much of my mental energy. The time itself isn't as bad - I'm getting pretty efficient at waking up, seeing the early move, taking my profits / establish the new positions, and then ignore it more than not.
But the mental energy being consumed is too much. I'm thinking about it too much. I'm thinking about how this would look if it worked so well every week of the year, and that is a paved road to .. uhmm ... heck. I've been on that road before
So at least for awhile I'm going to shift from this week / next week options, to next week / week after options. I know that I'll still get early close opportunities but they won't happen daily as they have been recently. Right now everything I've got open has the 8/20 expiration. It being Wednesday if there were any new positions being opened today they would be for 8/27. If it were Mon/Tue then I'd be opening for 8/20.
The idea is to have at least 8 full trading days to expiration (an open on Tuesday) up to 12 full trading days (an open on Wednesday). I say "full" trading days to refer to the clock that starts ticking the day after open (so I also have the day of opening for the trade to start moving). Any partial or market closed trading days count in that number (to the degree that matters). I think that adding 1 week to my trading window will reduce the daily open/close dynamic, though I also expect it to cut into the actual profit pretty deeply.
And we'll see how that goes. When I tried something similar back at the beginning of the year it lasted a couple of months and then I was back to weeklies (3 to 7 full trading days to expiration).
Do you not get worried about an event or announcement that could rally the stock?
When you go further out on your CCs, do you sell further OTM? Or do you use the same criteria that you would use for a regular weekly CC?
I find there is a certain amount of comfort staying within 2 weeks until expiration to be able to manage a surge in the stock price.
If I recall, the SP was around $780 when Elon did his "The stock price is too high" Tweet - was great, I had puts exercise then the SP bounced the following Monday
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Hey guys-
This week I started day trading TSLA covered calls. Following the discussion above, the premiums these days are too low for my liking considering the potential for a gap up any day now.
I am selling cc’s into rapid price rises and buying back on the reversal.
today’s trades - all the same contract:
STO $740c 8/20 for $6.10 @9:32 AM
BTC for $5.10 @9:37 AM
STO for $5.50
BTC for $4.60
STO for $4.60
BTC for $4.50
So I made $2.00 per share on these trades today.
glta
This week I started day trading TSLA covered calls. Following the discussion above, the premiums these days are too low for my liking considering the potential for a gap up any day now.
I am selling cc’s into rapid price rises and buying back on the reversal.
today’s trades - all the same contract:
STO $740c 8/20 for $6.10 @9:32 AM
BTC for $5.10 @9:37 AM
STO for $5.50
BTC for $4.60
STO for $4.60
BTC for $4.50
So I made $2.00 per share on these trades today.
glta
I can only speak for myself, but although premium is a driving force, I primarily base my decisions on the direction and velocity of the stock on a given week. I (normally) have all positions fully covered, so I'l not particularly bothered about going DITM either way, on the downside, I'll just keep rolling the puts and sit it out, on the upside, I'll roll the calls up until they're into the $800's and then probably just sell them, I'm not so attached to shares that I'm going to lose sleep over that - and in any case I'm holding 35 LEAPS 700, 800, 1400, that cover upside moves anywayIn a low IV / small stock moves, then yeah - closer to the money is the way to go. It's sort of a requirement to keep the option commissions from becoming the primary beneficiary.
The rhetorical question - Tesla has a history of much higher IV / HV. One of the way that option sellers get into trouble is selling (which is always based on IV) and then experiencing significantly higher "realized volatility" or historical volatility. In effect we don't get paid enough for the risk we take on when HV rises faster than IV. So are we accounting for that sort of reversal? Do we think it's down permanently (I don't; opinions will vary of course).
I don't have enough options experience or knowledge to put this into the right theoretical context and terminology. The observation though is that all of us are moving closer to the money. Even @Lycanthrope who has needed to go ITM
In fact I mostly am saying this out loud because it's something I just started thinking about for myself. Getting too close to the share price, plus bad position management on my part (arguably it was primarily the bad management) is how I got myself into trouble and 'lost money' (large individual trade losses, still profitable overall; it's a good 'lost money' context). By saying it out loud it's helping me think it through more systematically for myself
I'm just slightly nervous when I'm oversold on positions, like now, where I've opened puts for net week, while still holding for this, but even then, an SP drop to $600, I think I know how to manage that OK now, it's all about keeping my cash-reserve positive, that's all
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