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Oh I got you now. I don’t pay much attention to early premarket because it’s such low volume

What do you mean by “$4 gap down premarket?”

Watch out for a rapid correction if we move below the VWAP, which is about $249 right now

Could someone please let me know what the closing price will be for TSLA today? TIA

either way it feels dangerous to bet big rn

ARKK (+4%) and RIVN (+5%) are also up big this morning. Looks like risk on speculation to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal today.

Jobless claims came in lower than expected this morning, which may put a bit of pressure on growth stocks today. (Good news is bad news -> int rates may stay higher for longer & lower probability of a near term rate cut).

Agreed. But no matter who handles the earnings call, when quarterly results lead to lower projected earnings, the share price will inevitably fall.

FWIW, According to Gary Black, the average 2023 EPS estimate went down by 9% after earnings, bringing TSLA price targets from $210 to $196. The 10% TSLA drop after earnings is in line with this repricing.

I suggest going back to the drawing board on your account- on paper. This is a thought exercise. If you closed all of your options positions, what trades would you make now that offer the best risk/reward given the current market conditions and Tesla guidance.

Remember the good old days when we were stuck at $185? Those were good times 🤔

They may simply have cut prices today so that on the earnings call they can say “no further price cuts are planned for the foreseeable future.” Cutting prices can lead people to put off purchases to get a better deal hoping for better an even lower price.

Why do you think this is bullish?

TSLA outperformed the market on Friday by a couple of % for no obvious reason and underperforms the market today by a couple of % for no obvious reason. 🤷‍♂️ I wouldn’t sweat these minor mismatches. Probably options market related or maybe sector rotation but who knows. I’m just thankful...

Thank you so much for your wise counsel

Moving above the VWAP now… bullish

Looking dangerous today…

I agree that Tesla is in good shape. But swing traders will take profits at some point and we were at $125 just 3 weeks ago. It will only take one bit of negative news or rumor excuse to trigger a sell off.

Looking to me like a near term correction is at hand for TSLA, based on the hourly and daily charts. Could see sub-$180 by Friday if we break below EMA at $195. $165 looks like a support level. This expectation subject to being trumped by news , of course

Honestly I think this market is too dangerous and unpredictable to be selling weeklies, especially for novice options traders. I have gone entirely to day trading.

My gut tells me that this positive premarket move is not going to hold… feels like speculative buying that will get swamped by negative market sentiment today.. Good luck, players

Sentiment flipped, shorts covering, & FOMO

IV was indeed falling a bit this afternoon, quite the opposite of the day before the previous ER

I for one welcome this boring after hours action today 😅 Get through the conference call intact and we can move on

There might be a blip in the morning, but I think the ER will be 100x more impactful on the share price this week.

Kinda, but we’re not seeing the falling volume that would signal a potential reversal coming. If that were to happen, I’d expect a fall to $116-$118 level within a day or two. But I think the ER will supersede any of this. My gut tells me we will be over $145 or below $110 this time next week...

Maybe he spent his 8 bucks on a share of Lucid 🤔

I guess we will know after it happens, as usual

Good points. I will add that there will probably be delayed reactions to the price drops as fund managers crunched numbers over the long weekend and adjust their price targets. I don’t think we will see many upward revisions. For example Gary Black, applauded the move but trimmed his 1year...

Just as the market tends to sell off ahead of a recession, the market tends to recover first as well, because it is forward looking.

The problem with milk prices is greedy cows were demanding higher wages. But otherwise I agree with your post.

Well at least we are not the poor sods who invested in the “competition“. Tesla price drops in China pummeled local EV stocks.

The next earnings call is going to very interesting listening, I reckon. Margins, future growth, costs of production, supply chain, delivery wave, new factories, Tesla Energy, FSD, new leadership (zhu), new products, and ever-present wildcard EM. I imagine many deep-pocket investors are on the...

Hey - any news causing the market dump just now?

If that’s the reason for the premarket spike, it’s basically speculators speculating on speculators. The volume is tiny compared with intraday trading. Let’s see if FOMO is sparked…

This is a decent sign that at least the selling momentum has abated.. for now at least. Do I sound too bullish? 🥴

Yeah, this job is far from “passive income“

Wow - this week is already shaping up to be even better than last week! Rolled $110 cc -> 1/27 $115 for $0.25 $116 cc -> 1/27 $121 for $1.42

You can explore those kind of hypotheticals at: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-call.html Select the option you want and the price range. For example, 1/24/2024 with TSLA =$200 Strike. Cost profit $50. $66. 118 % $100 c...

Nobody knows if we bottomed. But I would expect another leg down if the market as a whole goes down. A lot is riding on the next ER, obvi, for clarification of company outlook and risks. Those two factors will dominate TA in the near term. I don’t think we can declare victory on today’s...

Another leg down seems plausible, if the market as a whole goes south. Today seemed like a relatively normal trading day for TSLA, ending up ~2x qqq (-2.9% vs -1.3%) on lighter volume. So if the market stabilizes I expect/hope TSLA will as well. Nobody knows and there are plenty of analysts...

Yes - some good economic news (jobs, gdp) is bad market news right now because it gives the fed more incentive and more room to raise interest rates.

Oh it’s cool. I just thought you were practicing Festivus. “I got a lot of problems with you people!”

Pierre Ferragu was just on Bloomberg presenting his bull case on TSLA - potentially tripling from here in 1-2 years. Good questions and cogent answers, lacking the hot air that pervades CNBC and the like. Nice

My investment story has three chapters 1: big gainz 🤑 (good luck, smart) 2: big loss 😩(bad luck, dumb) 3: made it back again 😅(patience, work, smart) Yesterday was the end of chapter two. The next chapter will be better. Hope to see you all at the top of yonder hill, someday ✌️

We can always count on a great post by you, you handsome devil!

It’s bad juju to wish for a lower stock price

Interesting perspective. I hadn’t thought of it that way. So you think Elon/Tesla do not consider Tesla robotaxi, Semi, and $25k compact car as “new products?”

Would you care to share your predicted arc of the TSLA share price this year?

People laugh because it’s such an absurd concern, but he did say that Optimus was Teslas top priority new product in development. . .