Forgot to add, if TSLA continues to drop into the 180s/190s my plan is to close out the short position and YOLO my long position which will have a much lower cost basis. Basically a free trade with protection to the downside. Cheers.Copied!
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Yeah, well, I'm truly sorry that my gut-feeling from yesterday became reality today...
On my side, I closed out 25x 12/16 -c190 as I was feeling too constrained having 100% shares hedged with those, 75x still open (these help me sleep at night)
STO a 10x 10/21 -200 straddle for $20, 1500 shares left unassigned to be deployed as-and-when
On my side, I closed out 25x 12/16 -c190 as I was feeling too constrained having 100% shares hedged with those, 75x still open (these help me sleep at night)
STO a 10x 10/21 -200 straddle for $20, 1500 shares left unassigned to be deployed as-and-when
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Agreed. Cannot believe this. Rolled my Straddles down another $5 to $240 and out to 11/11. Rage bought more all the way down to $204.20. Now I have another (nearly two) CC to sell next week. With all this, I’m getting farther and farther from a 1:1 p/c ratio. We need a hard bounce and +20% gain next week.
I YOLOed 25% of my profits from closing my CCs today in buying 15% OTM 230 Calls at $2.05 for next Friday.
Of course they will finish worthless and we will be at $185 and I will be managing margin calls but at least it makes me feel better.
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I need help. My brain is so fried from all the stress and lack of sleep, that I'm not sure if I'm looking at numbers right. For downside Margin protection I can either sell 20,000 shares, or sell 200 June 2024 CC with lets say a 233 strike. The question is if the SP keep dropping, which one would do better? According to Fidelity, the 233 strike call option lost $8.65 today, while shares lost $16.73.
So if I'm not too cross-eyed, the shares lost twice the value of the calls? If that is the case, my best protection of the account for a further SP drop might be to sell shares at 200. Then if we drop to 170, buy the shares back (and have extra cash) and sell CC at that point to generate more cash and get some margin from the shares as well?
Am I reading this correctly?
Thanks....
(The Fidelity option calculators don't let me simulate a trade, and then a subsequent price drop with the hypothetical new portfolio).
So if I'm not too cross-eyed, the shares lost twice the value of the calls? If that is the case, my best protection of the account for a further SP drop might be to sell shares at 200. Then if we drop to 170, buy the shares back (and have extra cash) and sell CC at that point to generate more cash and get some margin from the shares as well?
Am I reading this correctly?
Thanks....
(The Fidelity option calculators don't let me simulate a trade, and then a subsequent price drop with the hypothetical new portfolio).
Running some numbers. I think I have an extra 600k in Margin if I sell the shares at 200SP, buy them back at 170SP, and then do the CC for 200 strike (for $60) at that point....?I need help. My brain is so fried from all the stress and lack of sleep, that I'm not sure if I'm looking at numbers right. For downside Margin protection I can either sell 20,000 shares, or sell 200 June 2024 CC with lets say a 233 strike. The question is if the SP keep dropping, which one would do better? According to Fidelity, the 233 strike call option lost $8.65 today, while shares lost $16.73.
So if I'm not too cross-eyed, the shares lost twice the value of the calls? If that is the case, my best protection of the account for a further SP drop might be to sell shares at 200. Then if we drop to 170, buy the shares back (and have extra cash) and sell CC at that point to generate more cash and get some margin from the shares as well?
Am I reading this correctly?
Thanks....
(The Fidelity option calculators don't let me simulate a trade, and then a subsequent price drop with the hypothetical new portfolio).
1) Sell 233 CC for $60x 200 contracts. $1.2M generated. 20,000 shares at 170 X .4 = $1.36M in margin. Total $2.56M
2) Sell 20,000 shares at 200 for $4M. Buy them back at 170. Cash 600k. Share Margin $1.36M. Sell 200CC for $60x200 for $1.2M. Total $3.16M
(This assumes Fidelity keeps the margin on shares at 40%)
There is no guarantee that the SP will drop to 170. Why not look into buying some puts? So for example buy 195$ puts for next week’s expiry @5.50 and fund those puts by selling short term calls 3-6 months out. You can do 2 puts for one call.
So taking the 20000 shares example buy 200 puts for Oct 21 expiry @5.50 and sell 100 calls for 256.67 strike price Jan 23 expiry @10.90. So basically a small debit (200x.1x100=200$).
I know your puts could go worthless but will give you downside protection, peace of mind and hopefully help with your margin. Thoughts?
Interesting. I wish the Puts expiry was farther out. I will have to look into other derivations of your plan. Thanks!
Xepa777
Banned
Dude what are you doing? I thought earlier this year you said you were going to keep it conservative.I need help. My brain is so fried from all the stress and lack of sleep, that I'm not sure if I'm looking at numbers right. For downside Margin protection I can either sell 20,000 shares, or sell 200 June 2024 CC with lets say a 233 strike. The question is if the SP keep dropping, which one would do better? According to Fidelity, the 233 strike call option lost $8.65 today, while shares lost $16.73.
So if I'm not too cross-eyed, the shares lost twice the value of the calls? If that is the case, my best protection of the account for a further SP drop might be to sell shares at 200. Then if we drop to 170, buy the shares back (and have extra cash) and sell CC at that point to generate more cash and get some margin from the shares as well?
Am I reading this correctly?
Thanks....
(The Fidelity option calculators don't let me simulate a trade, and then a subsequent price drop with the hypothetical new portfolio).
Tesla is not going to be at 200 by June 2024 come on. Those are going to be disaster out for you.
How much money have you loss in total from doing options? Maybe you should just keep to covered calls after tesla overtakes apple in market share or anytime tesla goes up 20% in a 30 day range.
if my count is correct, we completed wave 4 of this down leg this morning and now in the middle of wave 5. my initial target for it is 195. We should get there by Monday / Tuesday. Worst case scenario we might get down to 180 before or right after ER.
Macro-wise, SPX is in the middle of wave 3 - very nasty and destructive. My target for early next week is 3390. That should coincide with TSLA 195. After a small bounce, SPX will complete its 5th wave around 3250 the week after
What does it mean?
A. Hopefully TSLA will bottom before SPY as its wave 5 will have bottomed before that of SPY
B. How deep our wave 5 goes will depend a lot on how well ER goes.
C. However deep this wave 5 is, it will mark the end of the crash and we will begin a strong and sustained bull run.
Be careful it will get worse before it gets better. I hope everybody has stayed away from leverage.
buy SQQQ shares / calls if hedging is neccessary. My target for it is 90 before this crash is over.
If anyone needs advice during trading hours, feel free to reach out to me during the day. Hope I will see everybody on the other side, unscathed.
Macro-wise, SPX is in the middle of wave 3 - very nasty and destructive. My target for early next week is 3390. That should coincide with TSLA 195. After a small bounce, SPX will complete its 5th wave around 3250 the week after
What does it mean?
A. Hopefully TSLA will bottom before SPY as its wave 5 will have bottomed before that of SPY
B. How deep our wave 5 goes will depend a lot on how well ER goes.
C. However deep this wave 5 is, it will mark the end of the crash and we will begin a strong and sustained bull run.
Be careful it will get worse before it gets better. I hope everybody has stayed away from leverage.
If anyone needs advice during trading hours, feel free to reach out to me during the day. Hope I will see everybody on the other side, unscathed.
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How confident are you about points 3 and 4 as those pivots are not on the channel borders? Is the crossing back into the upper half of the channel the key element?
Did you mean 190?
90 for SQQQ, it's a -3x NASDAQ 100 fund, currently at 64.75
Their worst case bottom for Tesla is 180
my *personal* prediction is ~180, if simply following fibs (pls pls pls let me be wrong)
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AquaY
Member
3 year waiting list. Wow
What are "medicolegal expertises"?
You became an expertwitness for law suits?
Over 20% of the beneficiary attendants and nurses are on leave of absence for lumbar sprains and tendinitis in the public health care system. The hospitalization wards are understaffed and about 20-30% of the hospitalization beds are closed due to lack of staffing. 25-50% of Joint replacement surgeries are canceled due to this. Govt mandated hospital administrations to send their employees on leave of absence of more than 3 months to be evaluated by medical experts to consolidate them and return them back to work if they don’t have identifiable lesions and diagnostics on paraclinic exams. A lot is due to burn-out and they are tired of how administrations treat their employees. So I see workers for 30 mins, give my advice on the treatments to be done or consolidate then with or without restrictions in a report I dictate on my iPhone in 30 minutes. Then I buy 4 shares of TSLA for 1 hour of work.
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Im confident. They dont have to perfectly land on the channel. Numerically, 217 was my first target for 3 but that didnt produce any meaningful bounce. Thats when I knew these evil mfs were going for the trendline at 215 or even a test of the 52w low at 207. 215 offered some support but only 207 produced a bounce of appropriate magnitude.
Unfortunately, this is not a correction for the bull run since 2021. This is a correction for the entire run from IPO. Tesla is by no mean a bad company. It's just that the world is a different place now.
Since TSLA has already completed this 5 wave sequence on a super scale, the correction can be quite steep.
By my forecast, we will bounce huge soon but that will not mark the end of the correction. No, this bear market will take a breather in 2023 to give market participants a false sense of security, before coming back with a vengeance. For now, I think 180 should offer a solid support. Into 2023, depending on where we are in terms of EPS, we can certainly go lower.
Log scale chart
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