Well macro just fell off a cliff, so I think 273 now looking unlikely tooMaybe I heard wrong and he said 273. Sorry.
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Well macro just fell off a cliff, so I think 273 now looking unlikely tooMaybe I heard wrong and he said 273. Sorry.
FWIW, I gave everyone “loves”, because that’s what we all need after the past year’s portfolio decimations. Sorry, just isn’t enough, after having read about everyone’s situation. From my non-margin, IRAs, all-in TESLA (and only CSP/CC options), I’m down 37% yoy vs 52% for TSLA stock. Certainly would have been better off in an S&P mutual fund (-18%), but not as much fun and learning, so I consider it a “win”. Also, FWIW, I missed buying at the MMD today because I was reading everyone’s story, which I consider a much greater benefit than the handful of shares I might have bought. Your insights are beyond solid gold or even TSLA stock. Thanks to all.
It sure seems like this is the capitulation and SP that the hedgies were targeting. We almost tagged the 2-yr intraday low 3/5/21 $179.83, so maybe there’s another day push down, but we’re pretty close. Last time we got this low, I was over zealous in selling puts, didn’t roll them down and out fast enough, and was put shares at $266.67. Learned a bit there, but not enough because was caught again with the Hertz run up (losing CC shares) and the Elon selling plummet (getting put shares again). What’s my point here? Even with getting caught out several times in 2-yrs, I’m still ahead by selling options, and getting smarter every week (hopefully).
I cannot predict the future (macros, geopolitical, SP, IV, delta, gamma, or rho) and my rudimentary understanding of technical analysis has usually failed me as well. The only thing that I know with absolute certainty is that time, and theta decay will progress. When selling an ATM straddle with maximum time value, I know with absolute certainty that at least one side will win and that money is realized profit. There’s also a very slim chance that both sides will decay to essentially zero, so better than 50% chance of winning. As long as one stays “near” ATM, this is a viable strategy. Personally, I tried weekly ATM and it’s great for theta, but have since rolled out closer to monthly and SP+10%. Less theta, but less heartburn and easier sleeping. Straddles are not without risk or management, and do require a lot of cash/share backing, but have helped me sell CCs at levels I would have never thought possible. GLTA.
I called upon Elon, while doing things for humanity not to forget the long time HODL-ers like myself, that would have liked a high once in a while, in my case necessary to be able to buy the ordered new Model 3. So talk to the board and start the buyback. No taxes involved. Tesla gets a good price and we get some relief.Anyone rage tweeting about the shitty stock price? I rolled 10 240CC's down to 220, rolled 3 240 CC's in another account to 215 and sold a couple of additional 215's in my primary account. If we rally, fine, if not, I'm still making some minor money.
Until earnings or deliveries overtake the Elon news cycle, seems like we're stuck down here. If China closures get worse, they are going to have a worse recession than the US. Good news and danger abounds, so hopefully selling time value will continue to help us all, until the TSLA can get back some value.
When you say straddles at +10% of SP, you mean the puts too, right, same strike (just to be sure)? So you're selling ITM puts and OTM calls at, say 11/18 215 strike, would that be right?FWIW, I gave everyone “loves”, because that’s what we all need after the past year’s portfolio decimations. Sorry, just isn’t enough, after having read about everyone’s situation. From my non-margin, IRAs, all-in TESLA (and only CSP/CC options), I’m down 37% yoy vs 52% for TSLA stock. Certainly would have been better off in an S&P mutual fund (-18%), but not as much fun and learning, so I consider it a “win”. Also, FWIW, I missed buying at the MMD today because I was reading everyone’s story, which I consider a much greater benefit than the handful of shares I might have bought. Your insights are beyond solid gold or even TSLA stock. Thanks to all.
It sure seems like this is the capitulation and SP that the hedgies were targeting. We almost tagged the 2-yr intraday low 3/5/21 $179.83, so maybe there’s another day push down, but we’re pretty close. Last time we got this low, I was over zealous in selling puts, didn’t roll them down and out fast enough, and was put shares at $266.67. Learned a bit there, but not enough because was caught again with the Hertz run up (losing CC shares) and the Elon selling plummet (getting put shares again). What’s my point here? Even with getting caught out several times in 2-yrs, I’m still ahead by selling options, and getting smarter every week (hopefully).
I cannot predict the future (macros, geopolitical, SP, IV, delta, gamma, or rho) and my rudimentary understanding of technical analysis has usually failed me as well. The only thing that I know with absolute certainty is that time, and theta decay will progress. When selling an ATM straddle with maximum time value, I know with absolute certainty that at least one side will win and that money is realized profit. There’s also a very slim chance that both sides will decay to essentially zero, so better than 50% chance of winning. As long as one stays “near” ATM, this is a viable strategy. Personally, I tried weekly ATM and it’s great for theta, but have since rolled out closer to monthly and SP+10%. Less theta, but less heartburn and easier sleeping. Straddles are not without risk or management, and do require a lot of cash/share backing, but have helped me sell CCs at levels I would have never thought possible. GLTA.
I called upon Elon, while doing things for humanity not to forget the long time HODL-ers like myself, that would have liked a high once in a while, in my case necessary to be able to buy the ordered new Model 3. So talk to the board and start the buyback. No taxes involved. Tesla gets a good price and we get some relief.
NO ANSWER received LOL
Sharing from my notes from a coaching session with a pro re selling CCs, in case it’s helpful:I can’t decide when to sell CCs again. Every time I sell CCs the stock rockets +5% the day after. I don’t know if I sell at the end of the day so we gap up tomorrow. Or if I wait for a bounce tomorrow because we are beyond crazy oversold.
Any particular reason they are targeting 90 days out?Sharing from my notes from a coaching session with a pro re selling CCs, in case it’s helpful:
Optimal time to sell covered calls is just after a rise completes and the stock is in a congestion zone (choppy). Once the stock begins showing signs of breakdown and it loses Stochastic over 60 on the 1hr for more than one bar and is confirmed trending down, sell a strike ABOVE resistance for 90 days out. Since the stock is trending down, the CC strike will likely not hit and you get to keep premium.
Bonus:
Optimal time to sell Cash Secured Puts is just after a drop completes/plateaus (perhaps around these days…) and the stock is in a congestion zone. Once the stock begins showing signs of breakout over resistance and gains Stochastic over 60 on the 1hr for more than one bar, sell a CSP strike below support for 90 days out. Since the stock is trending up, the CSP strike will likely not hit and you get to keep premium.
I’m not a pro, so let me know if these make sense.
Surely not before CPI and at current levels (but we can always go lower...)My plan was to buy a 4 motor Cybertruck and a roadster with my TSLA profits. Now with that reasoning I would have to sell my Model Y to cover my losses.
I can’t decide when to sell CCs again. Every time I sell CCs the stock rockets +5% the day after. I don’t know if I sell at the end of the day so we gap up tomorrow. Or if I wait for a bounce tomorrow because we are beyond crazy oversold.
Any particular reason they are targeting 90 days out?
CPI tomorrow and possible election outcome moves makes me very hesitant to do anything today outside of being defensive. I closed a few sold puts to provide some overhead in the event of a high CPI number tomorrow.
Sharing from my notes from a coaching session with a pro re selling CCs, in case it’s helpful:
Optimal time to sell covered calls is just after a rise completes and the stock is in a congestion zone (choppy). Once the stock begins showing signs of breakdown and it loses Stochastic over 60 on the 1hr for more than one bar and is confirmed trending down, sell a strike ABOVE resistance for 90 days out. Since the stock is trending down, the CC strike will likely not hit and you get to keep premium.
Bonus:
Optimal time to sell Cash Secured Puts is just after a drop completes/plateaus (perhaps around these days…) and the stock is in a congestion zone. Once the stock begins showing signs of breakout over resistance and gains Stochastic over 60 on the 1hr for more than one bar, sell a CSP strike below support for 90 days out. Since the stock is trending up, the CSP strike will likely not hit and you get to keep premium.
I’m not a pro, so let me know if these make sense.
Dunno. I’m often afraid of losing control of CCs so I’m more conservative. A bounce can come anytime. Whereas selling CCs after a plateau has formed and above resistance greatly reduces that risk.Selling CCs during a free fall when everybody is trying to catch a falling knife might be good to. I just can’t decide if the knife will keep falling or we are about to bounce.
I wish my problem over the past year was losing control of CCs LOL.Dunno. I’m often afraid of losing control of CCs so I’m more conservative. A bounce can come anytime. Whereas selling CCs after a plateau has formed and above resistance greatly reduces that risk.
Any particular reason they are targeting 90 days out?
CPI tomorrow and possible election outcome moves makes me very hesitant to do anything today outside of being defensive. I closed a few sold puts to provide some overhead in the event of a high CPI number tomorrow.
You have to watch extrinsic value with ITM and especially DITM short puts regardless of expiration.Ugh - the short leg of my Jan'23 326.67/276.67 was just assigned for my parents account. Better to try to have them call and exercise the long leg, or just sell the shares that were assigned? How are you all handling early options assignment on BPS?
I wish my problem over the past year was losing control of CCs LOL.
The volume is HUGE. We are going to see at least 2X normal volume and over 120M shares by EOD. Technicals 101 says needed for plateau either way. Today it would be for some sort of bottom. Anyone with me here, or am I whistling past the graveyard? No shortage of buyers it seems or we would be much lower.