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I agree, unless tomorrow Semi event has some sort of surprises for investors, that case, we could see 200 even before Friday. We're reaching 190 while Im typing here.I sold some -200Cs for Friday. Should be totally safe once the next EM Tweets hit.
This is why I don't look at TA. It is no match for EM, Powell, Trump et alsp went up too fast, my candlesticks are missing!
Has any delivery event ever caused a SP spike ? All I remember are hype before the delivery and slump afterwards.I agree, unless tomorrow Semi event has some sort of surprises for investors, that case, we could see 200 even before Friday. We're reaching 190 while Im typing here.
Funny you should suggest that: STO 10X -p200/+c200 +$13.1/+$3.1Sell new ones!
Thanks this is very helpful, I guess let me rephrase my question. What are the odds that Friday close is higher than Monday High? So for example if you take 20 weeks of data(or however many weeks of data you have) and compare Friday closing price to Monday high is it 80% of the time that Friday close < Mon High?looks like +/- 17% in 2022
TSLA Safe OTM% (Fri Close vs Mon Low/High) - Last 2 Years
View attachment 879842
I can't recall, but I will be little cautious here. Not just because the Semi event, but also the marco momentum could last a few days until hitting major resistance, and can drag TSLA along. But if you already have the exit/rolling plan, just go for it. I probably will sit on the sideline until tomorrow.Has any delivery event ever caused a SP spike ? All I remember are hype before the delivery and slump afterwards.
I sold some -200Cs for Friday. Should be totally safe once the next EM Tweets hit.
No - not worried about 200 calls. And as I've been posting, will switch over to call spreads to hedge the calls. Puts too, once I'm no longer trapped.I can't recall, but I will be little cautious here. Not just because the Semi event, but also the macro momentum could last a few days until hitting major resistance, and can drag TSLA along. But if you already have the exit/rolling plan, just go for it. I probably will sit on the sideline until tomorrow.
Thanks this is very helpful, I guess let me rephrase my question. What are the odds that Friday close is higher than Monday High? So for example if you take 20 weeks of data(or however many weeks of data you have) and compare Friday closing price to Monday high is it 80% of the time that Friday close < Mon High?
So two possibilities and the the % of each event.
1. Friday close < Mon High
2. Friday close > Mon High
I'm guessing that selling 4 DTE CCs on Tuesday morning would be a good option but need the data to confirm this.
It’ll pull back a bit, but who knows what tomorrows Semi event will bring...Still confident on <200 by Friday, chaps? That was a big move today, might pull-back a bit, you know how it goes
I still have 20x -c180's for this week, they surely look like toast... tried to roll to 10x 12/9 -p195/-c195, but the limits didn't quite hit, will see tomorrow... might take the easy route out with a 20x -180 straddle for next week, that adds +$4 premium, so could reduce the number of contracts to 15x for free, will see tomorrow...
I didn't mean 195 SP closing today!!!I've underwater 190 cash covered puts & 200 Calls.
So, ideally, I want a closing SP of 195
I would not be surprised to see 220 by Friday, assuming a weak or flat PCE.Still confident on <200 by Friday, chaps? That was a big move today, might pull-back a bit, you know how it goes
I still have 20x -c180's for this week, they surely look like toast... tried to roll to 10x 12/9 -p195/-c195, but the limits didn't quite hit, will see tomorrow... might take the easy route out with a 20x -180 straddle for next week, that adds +$4 premium, so could reduce the number of contracts to 15x for free, will see tomorrow...