Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[vikings123]

gap 180.83 touched, maybe 183 is next

View attachment 879838

Hi @Yoona I was wondering how many times TSLA closes week at or above Monday's(or first trading day of week) intraday high. I'm aware of the 15-20% rule in general for Mon-Fri. But would be interesting to see how the weekly closing price aligns with Monday intraday high.

If you have the data handy are you able to provide some insights? Thanks.

 

[Yoona]

Hi @Yoona I was wondering how many times TSLA closes week at or above Monday's(or first trading day of week) intraday high. I'm aware of the 15-20% rule in general for Mon-Fri. But would be interesting to see how the weekly closing price aligns with Monday intraday high.

If you have the data handy are you able to provide some insights? Thanks.

looks like +/- 17% in 2022

TSLA Safe OTM% (Fri Close vs Mon Low/High) - Last 2 Years

 

[Cherry Wine]

There are 2 unknowns between now and Friday close -

Today - Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at 1:30ish EST - could make the market crash or rally.
Tomorrow - Tesla Semi event - if something unexpected is announced - could make the stock crash or rally.

Good luck!

You're forgetting a biggie: PCE tomorrow morning at 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET. And unemployment numbers on Friday AM.

So many economic releases to act as catalysts these days, it's hard to keep track.

 

[Yoona]

gap 180.83 touched, maybe 183 is next

View attachment 879838

183 touched

 

[EVNow]

looks like +/- 17% in 2022

TSLA Safe OTM% (Fri Close vs Mon Low/High) - Last 2 Years

View attachment 879842

Wow - seriously where do you get these charts ?

 

[Yoona]

double-top detected at ~185, res has been there for 2 weeks now since Nov 17

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow - seriously where do you get these charts ?

Is this not something that one can put together with a little time in Excel? (Not looking to diminish @Yoona's contributions in any way, which are much appreciated.)

 

[Yoona]

Wow - seriously where do you get these charts ?

download from yahoo and upload to google sheets, then create charts

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

Discover historical prices for TSLA stock on Yahoo Finance. View daily, weekly or monthly format back to when Tesla, Inc. stock was issued.

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Cherry Wine]

Market is clearly digging what Powell is selling.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, this is interesting!

My calls, my calls

 

[SebastienBonny]

Well, this is interesting!

My calls, my calls

Sell new ones!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Oh
Wow

 

[EVNow]

I've done a lot of backtesting / research using Black-Scholes spreadsheet. I'll post that with details today. Take a look at my post from a couple of days back.

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Here is some back testing using Black-Scholes spreadsheet. Note that
- IV is 60
- Doesn't account for bid/ask spread
- Using 10% OTM
- I used the last big jump over 3 consecutive weeks for testing from 11-Mar-22

As you can see
- Vertical Spread works better in this case as by 15-Apr it is no longer trapped. Covered Call is still trapped.
- In general to get x premium, we need 2x spread. I tried to pick strikes where short strike is 1x below SP and long leg is 1x above SP.
- If the SP keeps going up several weeks in a row, the difference in buy/sell strikes keeps getting doubled and becomes more like a covered call.

 

[EVNow]

Well, this is interesting!

My calls, my calls

I've underwater 190 cash covered puts & 200 Calls.

So, ideally, I want a closing SP of 195

 

[Discoducky]

I'm listening to Powell and this is a turning point. I'm holding off on selling more CCs as it seems the Fed has turned a corner. But, he's about to take questions...holding my breath!

Unless we hit 200 today and then I'll sell some $210s for next week.

 

[Discoducky]

I'm listening to Powell and this is a turning point. I'm holding off on selling more CCs as it seems the Fed has turned a corner. But, he's about to take questions...holding my breath!

Unless we hit 200 today and then I'll sell some $210s for next week.

Powell just said, in response to a question..."and that is why we are slowing down".

So, we will NOT get 0.75 on Dec 14th, that is now known.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Thanks. Do you see us closing at 195 in the next two days (by Friday)? There seems to be so many resistances between here and 195. Wondering if to BTC my -CC’s. Also practicing setting trailing stops.

It became totally possible 30 mins ago

 

[MikeC]

Bought back some 12/9 195CCs at small loss. I don't know why I bother with CCs, as soon as the stock jumps a few percent I start to get anxious thinking about those 10% days we used to have. Would really love to have my 190p BPS expire this week.

 

[corduroy]

I sold some -200Cs for Friday. Should be totally safe once the next EM Tweets hit.

 

[EVNow]

download from yahoo and upload to google sheets, then create charts

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

Discover historical prices for TSLA stock on Yahoo Finance. View daily, weekly or monthly format back to when Tesla, Inc. stock was issued.

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Ok - so, need some serious charting chops

I've not used Google for charting - just use Excel. Do you code or can you get these just through a wizard ?