Yeah, I love it, got some calls down the shitter, but some puts going to zero too, the calls can be rolled way way out, no sweat
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
220 by this Friday?
That’s quite a stretch but ya never know with bi-polar TSLA. I wonder what insight @dl003 has on this from EWT and instinct.
Yeah “roll early roll often” applies to both calls and puts.
I think the 190 break definitely had something to do with this news. Good on Elon to mend fences. I guess deletion of the 30% tax or war meme was a sign.
Soft PCE and we should rip. Hard. If we don't, I'm backing up the truck.
If get assigned on my $195 calls, I will buy DITM Leaps.
Sentiment sure changes quickly. Negatives from just a week ago decreasing: Inflation/FED slowing, China demand FUD being disproven each week, China zero-COVID relaxing, TWTR drama fading, no more Elon selling.
I wouldn't be surprised to continue the run tomorrow but then get a bit of a sell the news on Friday after the Semi event. I'm hoping to get a chance to get out of a few more CCs I knew I shouldn't have sold (192.5 for this week).
I'm still underwater on BPS from 190-250 from this week out to Jan 20 and also loaded up on 2024 and 2025 LEAPS, so another drop would be ugly, but I just think it's ridiculously undervalued anywhere near 200 and I don't think we'll be down here a month from now. The margin needed for BPS are preventing me from selling more shares to buy more 2025s, so hoping to clear them out before we go up too much more.
I wouldn't be surprised to continue the run tomorrow but then get a bit of a sell the news on Friday after the Semi event. I'm hoping to get a chance to get out of a few more CCs I knew I shouldn't have sold (192.5 for this week).
I'm still underwater on BPS from 190-250 from this week out to Jan 20 and also loaded up on 2024 and 2025 LEAPS, so another drop would be ugly, but I just think it's ridiculously undervalued anywhere near 200 and I don't think we'll be down here a month from now. The margin needed for BPS are preventing me from selling more shares to buy more 2025s, so hoping to clear them out before we go up too much more.
Xepa777
Member
This is the way.
Why do you think China zero-covid is relaxing? Have you not seen what's been going on in the country? lol
It’s not a lot but it’s headed in the right direction.
I think Xi likes the control over the population that the policy gives him, but I don’t think he has any desire to shut down any more factories while their economy is struggling and companies are looking to lessen their dependence on them (Apple shifting to India; Tesla maybe South Korea).
I'm wondering if the market can hold back TSLA tomorrow and Friday to maxpain.
Today $182.50, tomorrow what will it be?
Next week is currently $185
Today $182.50, tomorrow what will it be?
Next week is currently $185
220 by Friday is indeed quite difficult to achieve.220 by this Friday?
I wonder what insight @dl003 has on this from EWT and instinct.
First, daily RSI is at 49 right now. Notice how this level in the past had marked the beginning of a consolidation phase following the initial run-up from the low. By consolidation, I don't mean a steep decline or even a decline, but at least some sort of sideway momentum should be expected.
Secondly, my current wave count. Remember I was looking for a retracement to 177 minimum and that's because that's the 50% retracement from 189. The stock only managed to touch 178. By this morning, it was still looking like it's going to go down some more after filling the opening gap, before dovish commentary from Fed Chair Powell lifted the entire market up in a spectacular fashion.
The only reason I keep bringing up my wave count at this point is because the 50% minimum retracement from the top of wave 1 is the best insurance policy we have had. I'm sorry if my plan to close my calls at 175 pushed you to take extra risks instead of reducing size at 178.
It would be detrimental to refuse to accept the fact that maybe the drop to 178 was it - the retracement I was looking for. Now, the next degree insurance policy is way out there at 225 and above. Difficult to guess, knowing that 189 was 1 and 178 was 2. I can only do a worst case scenario: 250 by end of December / early January. So let's manage our risks right now based on other indicators.
The candles from 178 are building up what looks like another impulsive series. The purple wave 3 looks like a major one, targeting 197.5 tomorrow, which is where the hourly 200 SMA & 200 EMA will converge. In the past 2 years, this resistance has marked the top of every initial spike from a major low in TSLA. However, judging by today's action, I will manage my risks on the premise that this train still has some steam to go. I think we will get rejected at 197.5 in the morning, build a bull flag throughout the day, and gap up on Friday, target the 200 area before meaningfully pulling back.
TSLA is up 7.67% today... historically, it's 50-50 if next day is red or greenI'm wondering if the market can hold back TSLA tomorrow and Friday to maxpain.
Today $182.50, tomorrow what will it be?
Next week is currently $185
TSLA - What Happens Next Day if Today's Gain is >= 7%
Thank you! Great commentary and analysis as always.
Do you see us closing this Friday at/above 200? Asking because I thought 200 was safe and sold 30x CC for $0.48 (it’s now 1.73) but having second thoughts and may need to BTC at any dip tomorrow for a loss to protect my shares (CB of 242). Would love to be able to hold to close of Friday and get out of them without BTC.
The TOS option chain is showing a 30% chance of the 200 strike closing this Friday ITM but I don’t know how much I could trust that ;-)
Well, I screwed that up spectacularly today. I tried buying back 5,000 shares in the am at 184.2, only to have the SP head straight down after. I sold them for a $1.5 loss shortly after. Then the SP went down below 181. After losing $7500 earlier in the morning, I was scared to buy back as the SP started rising during the Powell talk. Now I would be buying back at a huge loss, which is no big deal long term, as long as the SP doesn't go back down and force me to sell low for Margin reasons. So, my plan is to sell 185 or 190 Puts for next week so that the premium lowers my cost basis if the shares are assigned. I can also roll down if the SP starts to come back down too much.
I also have 190CC for Dec. 16.
(That's right, I am a master trader....
)
I'm expecting the SP to climb more tomorrow with Semi event and Macros. Hopefully there will be a small pullback Friday so I can manage positions. But if there is a Semi surprise, with my luck we might climb another 10-20% before we pullback....
I also have 190CC for Dec. 16.
(That's right, I am a master trader....
)I'm expecting the SP to climb more tomorrow with Semi event and Macros. Hopefully there will be a small pullback Friday so I can manage positions. But if there is a Semi surprise, with my luck we might climb another 10-20% before we pullback....
At this point I would surely BTC tomorrow on any dip.
Thank you, will do exactly that.
Where is the next safe STO CC strike for 12/9? Used to be 190 based on previous feedback.
Also, maybe better to STO any new CC on new strike tomorrow vs Monday to earn Theta decay?
I'm not so sure at this point but 220 seems safe. I can't imagine the stock shooting up to overbought territory on the daily only 12 days from a super major low.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Rob (TeslaDaily) noted yesterday that Short Position hasn't really gone up by that much. And its just one day to cover.
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