I want to clarify a bit on the recent discussion about short straddles or strangles (SS), so that people don’t think I’m only advocating for those. My use of these in the past has been because of my lack of margin or a trading platform that allowed spreads, plus my inability to time trades or accurately guess SP direction, short- or long-term. I know that we all make our own decisions, but that there can be a small amount of herd mentality on this thread. In 2021 we witnessed lots of people profitably trading BPS, which then turned into disaster in 2022. I think (but don’t know for a fact) that some options/spreads are more profitable when the SP is rising vs stable or dropping as follows:
Rising SP: BPS (bull put spread), BCS (bull call spread), buy calls
Stable SP: IC (iron condor), short straddle, short strangle (SS)
Falling SP: bps (bear put spread), bcs (bear call spread), buy puts
I have just dipped my toes into trading spreads (a single IC) for the learning and so far I am not impressed with my experience and emotional response. At this point, I realize that timing and direction (definitely not my strong points) are very important. Furthermore, the risks are inherently greater and the premium lower per contract, thus requiring more contracts and therefore more brokerage fees. Sure, when done well there’s the potential to clear 5-10% per week. Who wouldn’t be seduced by such returns? With poor timing or direction, well, decimation or total asset destruction. I feel my trades would result in the latter.
Once again, I don’t know what the SP action will be in 2023 and will continue to hedge my trades with this in mind. I hope and believe that the SP will rise in 2023, maybe even back to 300-400, so I will be slightly hedging in this direction, but could be wrong both short- and long-term. Worst case for short straddles is that the SP runs hard in one direction (likely up from here) and the winning side cannot fully compensate for the losing side. For example, if the SP closes up $50 this week, my puts gain $8, but my calls lose $45. Even if I roll out perfectly, at $5/wk it’s a LONG time to recover that. Furthermore, TSLA has a way of continuing direction week after week (Hertz). Remember, selling CCs at a SP of $125 and buying them back at $175 is selling low and buying high. Ouch.