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This feels like the good ol' days. Kind of. Remember ramping up 12% mid day for no reason in 2020? Pepperidge farm remembers.

Looks like we might be setting up for a classic sell the rumor, sell the news situation.

When I last checked the street had much much higher estimated operating expenses, to the tune of $200M more than Q3 I think.

You often have incredibly informed and insightful posts here, in light of this new information do I need to go back and question all of it? 😉

So going from ~42% GM to ~39% GM. How will we survive? But more seriously, my only (minor) feedback is it kind of confusing how the margin $ is presented. It could be read as suggesting that's how much the Model Y made in gross profit in 2022, and we'll be up 60% from that. But we know...

I'm probably in the minority here but I don't see the IRS designations being aimed to hurt Tesla really at all. I mean they also kneecapped the Mach-E which is arguably the best (I know, I know) competitor to the Model Y in the US. Not only that but many EVs were excluded due to assembly...

So even with all this shakeup, I still want to know: what's up with the LR Model 3? Curiously, when on the design studio for the Model 3, if you follow the link below the trim listing to "See limited current and upcoming inventory" it takes you specifically to LR inventory. Hmm 🤔 (For...

I think the other factor that @MrMoo seems to be missing (as well as many others, still!) is that gross margins on prices before these cuts were likely north of 35%. Many of the cars delivered in the past record gross margin quarters were at prices lower than the listed price at the time due to...

Could this also be linked with the Tesla China VP saying there is no Model 2? Could the "third generation" platform be a totally revamped model 3 that is much cheaper?

I understand your point, and Tesla really fumbled the ultrasonic sensor removal. It almost makes me wonder if there is more to the story that we never heard. But two thoughts: The last 12 months Tesla basically could do whatever they wanted to the cars at almost any price because there were...

Can we retire the phrase "demand problem" please? 😂 Bullish or bearish I don't care. It obfuscates the discussion.

The last time you brought this up, I looked, and it was happening to other stocks around the same times as well. Just look at AMZN for example, gigantic put volume today as well, same expiry as well. So whatever it is, it's not unique to TSLA. It is curious though

I also feel something is brewing. Interestingly the vehicle list submitted for the IRA for Tesla does not include the performance model 3, but does include the long range which isn't for sale right now. Could the performance model 3 be going away, and instead the long range is effectively the...

Yeah this is what massively threw off my predictions. Would love some thoughtful commentary on where we think these might be.

Well I was waaaay wrong. Time to play the "find the cars in inventory" game. Do we think there are 30-40k sitting in China?

Okay fair, but that's semantics. My point was that (unless they are going to pull a rabbit out of their hat in fremont) we won't be close to 50% production increase, hence something has clearly changed therefore we shouldn't put much weight to Zach's comments about expecting another inventory...

Unfortunately Zach also told us they were targeting for > 50% production growth, which I think we can all pretty confidently say is not going to happen. It seems clear plans changed to some degree, for some reason, in China after the Q3 call. So I don't really put a ton of weight to what was...

Did we really need to lock this thread just so a mod could tell us they will be busy? On the other hand, it'd probably be for the betterment of many if this thread just stayed locked for a while 😂

I'll admit I'm not actually super familiar with these overviews, but bullish flow for puts would have to be sold puts right? 1/20/23 is an expiry with a lot of deep ITM puts, would these likely just be closing of some of those? I guess bullish, but more just seems like "Someone always knows...

When the ability to order the 3 LR was removed from the site, Elon gave the explanation of "Too much demand." I think we all saw through that, as clearly the Y had the most demand. A plausible explanation was something to do with tax credit positioning. But I really don't see why they would...

When the ability to order the 3 LR was removed from the site, Elon gave the explanation of "Too much demand." I think we all saw through that, as clearly the Y had the most demand. A plausible explanation was something to do with tax credit positioning. But I really don't see why they would...

I think the probability of 450-460k deliveries is severely underpriced by the market/analysts. That's a little higher than my base case, but I think it's the most mispriced (hence why I have some calls for next week). One factor I just have no visibility into is rumors/discussion around some...

If this is true, which I'm with you I believe it is, everyone is way too bearish on Q4 and 450k should be in the bag.

This is what I don't get. There is basically no inventory in the US. It seems EU is very light on inventory too. If China doesn't have any cars for sale until Jan (i.e. no inventory). How do we not hit 450k+ deliveries? If you take conservative production (F:145k + A/B:55k + S:235k = 435k)...

That's uhh... some pretty heavy buying.

It's an important point, but do note a few things. He said they won't let up until it's on a clear trajectory to 2%. Which I know feels like meaningless semantics, but I feel it's a key difference. Additionally the Fed use Core PCE (not CPI) and PCE runs lower, with October core PCE being...

While I stand ready to be very wrong about this. I actually am cautiously optimistic about the Q4 deliveries number. I've been watching inventory on the Tesla site periodically throughout the day and after last night stuff is just straight up disappearing. There are no Model 3s available in...

It's important to add context to what Elon said. His comments about negative profits, or significant difficulties with demand, were in the context of a "2008 style" or "worse than 2008" recession. While I personally have concerns about the course of the fed's action, I struggle to find 2008 to...

If we interpret this to mean Giga Berlin just had their first week of 3k Model Y produced (which I think is the correct interpretation) that average of 2750/week for the quarter I suggested above is probably a bit too high. Maybe both Berlin and Texas will be in the high 20 thousands produced...

In the US ASPs could come in a bit lower if FSD take rate goes down. I know it's somewhat counter to what we'd expect with a wide release now, but with car loan rates going way up and people just tightening the belt a bit I could see a non-trivial step down in the amount of people who splurge...

Man there is a lot of negativity here nowadays. This forum is the reason I was I went all in back in 2019, and was able to "semi-retire" at young age at the end of 2020. Forever grateful for that, but at the present time I'm not sure if there is a lot of value here right now. Just bickering...

Man there is a lot of negativity here nowadays. This forum is the reason I was I went all in back in 2019, and was able to "semi-retire" at young age at the end of 2020. Forever grateful for that, but at the present time I'm not sure if there is a lot of value here right now. Just bickering...

We know that Giga Texas produced 10k Model Ys between Sept 17 and Oct 30 for an average rate over that period of 1600/week. If we approximate and say that means on Oct 1 the rate was 1000/week, and Dec 15 was 3000/week. I realize the ramp is not linear, but if we just estimate say for 11 weeks...

I'm going to go on the record and say there is more credibility to the Tom Zhu rumors than I think most here believe. A few reasons why, in no particular order The article, obviously. Not that it had much credibility, but usually these things come from somewhere. Elon tweeting saying SpaceX &...

Extending this logic to its natural conclusion is why I often have dabbled in just selling CCs for the longest dated strike available. Right now I'm back to selling weeklies because it doesn't make sense to sell a super long dated call at a ~2 year low, but doing the math on "safe" weeklies...

Well curiously, on Nov 23rd TSLA opened at 169 and some change and went +7.82% on the day, while the Nasdaq was only +1%. Maybe someone with someone with some real money thinks TSLA < 175 is a buy. The volume was strong at the open when we just went straight up.

I get what you're trying to say, but I think it's misplaced. At this point in almost every important way the entire company is a reflection of him and his ideas, philosophies, motivations etc. If he were to depart today, yes I suspect the outcome many many years into the future might trend...

It seems many tickers had massive ITM put volumes today. Stock Option Volume Report Almost making me wonder if it's a data issue. I don't know enough to know about the potential use case for deep ITM puts (long or short) to theorize what could be happening. But it seems like they are all...

I think the only way it would be plausible is if Tesla seriously overestimated Demand in China and found themselves with not enough buyers and it too late to book ships in Q4 (I imagine it's not as simple as booking an Uber for example). But this would feel like really poor planning by Tesla...

Because they are shutting down production in December, doesn't anyone pay attention!? :p

Today smells strongly of tax loss harvesting. We're in that window for the tax year, and looking at my watchlist almost everything that is down significantly for the year is getting dumped hard at the open. META, SNAP, LCID, COIN etc. Obviously nothing is ever just one reason, or that simple...

First off, thank you for all the info you provide here. My understanding of many topics is much more nuanced and complete (or, probably more correctly, *less incomplete* :p) because of the things you post! The first post was completely clear, and at first blush, the fact that the average...

It seems in Q3 EUR/CNY was relatively stable, it was just the profit conversion to USD that varied throughout the quarter. In Q4 EUR/CNY itself is moving (favorably) as well. The pedant in me would love to figure out how this all should affect EPS estimates, but it feels too convoluted to be...

I assume Tesla converts to EUR to USD (for earnings calculation purposes) at the time of sale? If so, even though they are trying to unwind the wave, EU sales were still pretty backloaded in the quarter, at the euros weakest, but the bulk of sales may happen at the euro's strongest point this...

Model 3 spotted with dealer plates and the front/rear obscured.

I know it was light on details, but days like today remind me why I have no concern being fully invested in this company. Be it Semi trucks, Energy storage, FSD, Robotaxis, or just really profitable cars, there are so many ways this company can grow massively from here. Even with the macro...

That was some pretty heavy volume at the close. Definitely interesting 🧐 Also I believe we closed at the high of day, when was that last time that happened?

Something that I've recently come to understand (again thanks to @The Accountant) F/GM make most of their money from loans! Almost nothing from making cars. Do you know who also has very low P/Es historically? Banks! Citigroup: 6.61 JPMorgan Chase: 11.5 WellsFargo: 12.3 I think the market...

@The Accountant posted this on twitter: Current P/E: 56.5 Q4 P/E (w/ ~consensus GAAP of $1.20): 48.7 Q4 P/E (w/ ~consensus GAAP + deferred rev recognition of $0.26): 45.6 Using the earnings from the last calculation, a 50 P/E would be $201/share (Updated to use $1.20 as approx GAAP consensus...