Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Seems like consolidating around those levels after Twitter selling, max FUD, capitulation, P&D miss and employment numbers not as expected. Hope buyers are soon to line up and ready to buy for a rally in the 180 to retest the lower high before the lower low.

Weird price action today - after the big push-down at open and low 10:53EST, TSLA has been performing relatively well compared to macro, and for instance AAPL (which I take as the general QQQ barometer stock)

As I said in another thread - who's selling down here, what's the risk/reward profile at this price? Seems very low to me to be shorting, although doing it via puts limits the downside risk

 

[bingoz]

Seems like consolidating around those levels after Twitter selling, max FUD, capitulation, P&D miss and employment numbers not as expected. Hope buyers are soon to line up and ready to buy for a rally in the 180 to retest the lower high before the lower low.

TSLA probably will consolidate here 105-125 until the ER. It might drop but wont be as hard as it did last month based on the volume and other TAs. The Investor day in March might be the key for the actual reversal.

 

[dl003]

We need to start buying weekly OTM calls again and turn this ship around .

You buy mine and I buy yours.

 

[Yoona]

today's daytrade, i think MMs will defend the p100 wall

closing it soon

 

[juanmedina]

You buy mine and I buy yours.

With a portion of our CC profits let buy a certain strike of way OTM calls every Friday .

 

[dl003]

Volume peaked on Tuesday as we made the low which didn't even exceed the premarket low last week. Volume since then has tapered off. Encouraging.

 

[bingoz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611092130499289099

 

[Max Plaid]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611092130499289099

Aha, I was wondering that the big green spike that didn't move the SP was all about:

 

[intelligator]

today's daytrade, i think MMs will defend the p100 wall

Though the same. I closed the 1/6 +95/-100 BPS at 86% ... the new me

 

[OrthoSurg]

What is with AAPL and QQQ crashing while TSLA holding?

Sold my AAPL this morning to free up some margin to cover todays margin call. Happy I did it this morning instead of waiting at the end of the day.

 

[Nocturnal]

What is with AAPL and QQQ crashing while TSLA holding?

Sold my AAPL this morning to free up some margin to cover todays margin call. Happy I did it this morning instead of waiting at the end of the day.

I'm seeing a lot of narratives out there that Apple hasn't been punished as much as it should have yet.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Volume peaked on Tuesday as we made the low which didn't even exceed the premarket low last week. Volume since then has tapered off. Encouraging.

NFLX went -73% from peak to bottom in the matter of couple months before reversal and now having a nice steady climb back.
TSLA in the similar numbers peak to bottom with a recent drop due to a miss on P&D.
High volume selling with capitulation last week. High volume selling with P&D miss, sold again on job numbers not as expected.
I am just trying to figure out what has turned NFLX around to expect the same with TSLA

 

[Max Plaid]

NFLX went -73% from peak to bottom in the matter of couple months before reversal and now having a nice steady climb back.
TSLA in the similar numbers peak to bottom with a recent drop due to a miss on P&D.
High volume selling with capitulation last week. High volume selling with P&D miss, sold again on job numbers not as expected.
I am just trying to figure out what has turned NFLX around to expect the same with TSLA

Yes, very weird price-action from TSLA today, after the daily low, looked very strong, only faded into close as macro dumped

Netflix was over, they said, they were losing subscribers hand-over-fist, everyone was logging in with the same account that one person in Connecticut had actually paid for, content was stale, Disney had a better offer, blah blah blah. But guess what they started to gain more subscribers, simple as that, the numbers got better and beat, ha, you guessed it "guidance". Funny thing is that Netflix had to go into negative growth before it got hammered, but Tesla it only takes +40% to kill the stock!

But that chart is brutal!

 

[traxila]

NFLX went -73% from peak to bottom in the matter of couple months before reversal and now having a nice steady climb back.
TSLA in the similar numbers peak to bottom with a recent drop due to a miss on P&D.
High volume selling with capitulation last week. High volume selling with P&D miss, sold again on job numbers not as expected.
I am just trying to figure out what has turned NFLX around to expect the same with TSLA

Time for some heavy duty BPS!!!

Yeah, babay!

 

[Nocturnal]

NFLX went -73% from peak to bottom in the matter of couple months before reversal and now having a nice steady climb back.
TSLA in the similar numbers peak to bottom with a recent drop due to a miss on P&D.
High volume selling with capitulation last week. High volume selling with P&D miss, sold again on job numbers not as expected.
I am just trying to figure out what has turned NFLX around to expect the same with TSLA

Netflix restored their growth cred. Tesla hasn't done that yet, right or wrong.

Netflix subscriber growth returns as ad tier launch looms

After shedding a little over 1 million paid subscribers in the first half of 2022, Netflix Inc. on Oct. 18 announced third-quarter results including 2.4 million net new global paid subs, marking a return to growth sequentially and for 2022 year-to-date.

www.spglobal.com

 

[intelligator]

Today I tried to sell a 10x 1/6 BCS for .50 (intended -116/+121), accidentally bought the low strike and sold the high, realized 15 minutes later then unwound for .44; I wasn't feeling a green day tomorrow. Yeah, it was net debit and I didn't realize it By then I couldn't sell the intended spread for the same credit so decided to sit out. The remaining half of the two-day-assembled IC short leg at 120c should be a win. If we dip the morning, I may close that out early and walk away ending a positive first week of the year. Slow and steady, lock in the gains is my forward plan... as will be, measure twice, cut once

 

[OrthoSurg]

Cory saying if we break 107, we are going straight to 96

Pierre Roberge saying to short TSLA if we breakdown below 111 and close below 108

As much as I have been hoping for a rally if we go below 100 I won’t have any more options to cover for margin calls but to close my LEAPS and sell assigned shares at a rate of 2:1 so selling 2% of my TSLA for every 1% drop. At this point if we break below 100 and really find sellers at these levels and SPY effectively go down for the next leg lower being in a bear flag right now then I don’t know if the best way to proceed is to liquidate everything and buy back when we resume into a bull market (of course before we realize this, TSLa might already be back at $150+ before stochastic is over 60 and all the indicators are confirming we are out of a bear market but TSLA might have resumed it upward momentum before the bear market is over.
Or I liquidate my LEAPs at a rate of 2% for every 1% drop below $108 gradually until this thing reverses.

At this point it’s either to accept to sink with the ship and be proud of losing it all Alamo Texas-style or get out at the lowest possible when every retail is short and everybody thinks is going for the next leg lower at 52weeks low or 2 years low

 

[JustMe]

Cory saying if we break 107, we are going straight to 96

Pierre Roberge saying to short TSLA if we breakdown below 111 and close below 108

As much as I have been hoping for a rally if we go below 100 I won’t have any more options to cover for margin calls but to close my LEAPS and sell assigned shares at a rate of 2:1 so selling 2% of my TSLA for every 1% drop. At this point if we break below 100 and really find sellers at these levels and SPY effectively go down for the next leg lower being in a bear flag right now then I don’t know if the best way to proceed is to liquidate everything and buy back when we resume into a bull market (of course before we realize this, TSLa might already be back at $150+ before stochastic is over 60 and all the indicators are confirming we are out of a bear market but TSLA might have resumed it upward momentum before the bear market is over.
Or I liquidate my LEAPs at a rate of 2% for every 1% drop below $108 gradually until this thing reverses.

At this point it’s either to accept to sink with the ship and be proud of losing it all Alamo Texas-style or get out at the lowest possible when every retail is short and everybody thinks is going for the next leg lower at 52weeks low or 2 years low

Another leg down seems plausible, if the market as a whole goes south. Today seemed like a relatively normal trading day for TSLA, ending up ~2x qqq (-2.9% vs -1.3%) on lighter volume. So if the market stabilizes I expect/hope TSLA will as well. Nobody knows and there are plenty of analysts pointing in opposite directions.

As to your situation, how would things look for you if you sold 5-10% of your shares and or leaps tomorrow? Would that materially improve your downside safety? Would you sleep better at night?

I don’t regret selling shares to close out margin, I regret waiting so long to pull the trigger.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Another leg down seems plausible, if the market as a whole goes south. Today seemed like a relatively normal trading day for TSLA, ending up ~2x qqq (-2.9% vs -1.3%) on lighter volume. So if the market stabilizes I expect/hope TSLA will as well. Nobody knows and there are plenty of analysts pointing in opposite directions.

As to your situation, how would things look for you if you sold 5-10% of your shares and or leaps tomorrow? Would that materially improve your downside safety? Would you sleep better at night?

I don’t regret selling shares to close out margin, I regret waiting so long to pull the trigger.

As surprisingly as it is, what wakes me up at night is when my cellphone rings when I’m in call for new consultations and when my 3 years old daughter wakes up during the night and comes in our bed for reassurance when we sleep and she starts hitting me in the face when she is sleeping like a star in the middle of our bed.

I don’t lose sleep about being margin called, I am just tired of trying to find out the “right logical solution” for an account with too much margin from too many sold puts I should have bought instead of selling in the first place. I was expecting the stock to go up 25% in 2022 from growing sales, revenues and deliveries. Now I am trying to salvage the right way an account after the stock did a -75% move instead.

Close all positions and wait for the next bull market, close half positions and wait for the next bull market to get back in, do nothing and liquidate on every drop, sell agressive ATM CCs to survive and roll them out far up and out as soon as there is a recovery? I have been expecting a recovery since the 200s however I have been more than 50% wrong so what are the chances of the stock got be another 50% down? Possible since it did what I thought impossible last 3 months.

 

[Nocturnal]

Close all positions and wait for the next bull market, close half positions and wait for the next bull market to get back in, do nothing and liquidate on every drop, sell agressive ATM CCs to survive and roll them out far up and out as soon as there is a recovery? I have been expecting a recovery since the 200s however I have been more than 50% wrong so what are the chances of the stock got be another 50% down? Possible since it did what I thought impossible last 3 months.

I think many of us are on that same train of thought. The damage to my account has been severe and I should have liquidated on a few of my red lines but sadly I did not.

We all keep thinking it will rebound but it hasn't so far. The lower it gets the odds of being right increase, I just don't know how much. Personally I've trimmed a lot and I'm holding more cash than I have in a long time. I'd be happy to take another sizable haircut if it meant that I knew my next plan was just to hold etc. I'm thinking I might play it safe and just wait for a sustained rally. Sure I'll miss a chunk of gains but can't afford to lose more capital. Maybe that means I miss out on a run from 100-150, then so be it. I can ride 150-??? and at least get most of it back.